I learned a long time ago not to put my hope in John McCain, but I did always have it in the back of my mind that he’d be the kind of guy to know that revenge is a dish best served cold. He could have ended this from Arizona without coming back at all, but he showed up in person, voted to let the charade proceed, kept everyone needlessly in suspense, and then shivved the president with a smile on his face:
“There is nothing Trump can do any more that will get to McCain. Battling an aggressive form of brain cancer, the maverick was willing to vote ‘no’ on the ‘skinny repeal’ amendment so that other GOP colleagues who were also opposed to the measure could vote ‘yes’ to save face with the conservative base. To this day, Trump has never apologized for saying that the former fighter pilot was not a war hero because he got captured in Vietnam. It gets less attention, but the president also besmirched the Arizona senator’s character by repeatedly accusing him of not taking care of other veterans. McCain has never forgotten.”
Given that he caused needless stress to millions of Americans and set up Mitch McConnell to look like the biggest ass in the world, a desire to hurt Trump in the most theatrical fashion possible is the only real explanation for why he had things play out this way.
It was good theater, though. It was theater for the ages.
And it left the president sputtering:
3 Republicans and 48 Democrats let the American people down. As I said from the beginning, let ObamaCare implode, then deal. Watch!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 28, 2017
In reality, McCain did his colleagues a giant favor. I took criticism for saying their plan was doomed because some thought I’d discourage people from phoning their representatives, but I didn’t see how the Republicans were ever going to bridge their differences. Playbook calls the idea a “fantasy,” and that’s how I felt along along:
Talk to Hill Republicans and the big problem is this: House Republicans do not believe Senate Republicans can pass anything substantial — period. And the idea that a bi-cameral negotiation — called a “conference committee” — would have somehow produced a compromise was also a bit of a fantasy.”
I didn’t see it playing out quite this way mainly because I thought it was so obviously in the Republicans’ interest to give up and stop hurting themselves that they’d find a way to put the effort to bed long before McCain did it for them. But they wouldn’t stop punching themselves in the face and taking needlessly damaging votes that wasted precious legislative time that they couldn’t afford to lose. If McConnell had prevailed last night, the agony would have been prolonged into the fall and done even more damage to the rest of their plans and their ability to meet their most basic responsibilities.
Of course, maybe the plan all along was to have the House just rubber stamp the skinny Senate bill. But that may appear to have been a closer call than it ever really was in reality. Last night, it seemed as real as a heart attack, but McCain’s vote was a cover for others who were opposed and just didn’t want to have to say so. And it’s not at all clear that Speaker Paul Ryan would have had the votes or the gall to go back on the promise that he would let the bill go to conference. Either way, I said all along that the only way anything would pass is if the conservatives caved to the moderates on Medicaid. They did eventually cave, and it still wasn’t enough.
One result of this is that there’s about a trillion more in revenues serving as the baseline in the budget than if their original repeal plan had worked, and that means that the Republicans will need to find a trillion more dollars in savings in order to enact the tax reform they want. They’re not taking away your home mortgage deduction or jacking up your capital gains tax rate, and stealing your local and state tax deduction won’t come close to paying for it. If they’re going to do tax reform now with 51 votes, they’re going to have let those cuts sunset after ten years because otherwise it won’t meet the requirements of the budget reconciliation process. For the Democrats, this was like killing two birds with one stone.
The Republicans have also demonstrated that their go-it-alone plan to ram home their agenda without any compromises or Democratic input is a dead end. And they fouled the bed in the process, making it exceedingly hard for them to come to the Democrats with any credibility or good will. McConnell had the risible effrontery last night to blame the Democrats for not helping him and not contributing their ideas after he precluded them from doing either. He’ll be back making the same case on the budget and the debt ceiling and the appropriations, and he won’t be any more convincing in those instances.
If Trump wants these things done, and if he wants tax reform or an infrastructure bill, he’ll need to get down on his knees and beg the Democrats for forgiveness and help. But his first reaction is to threaten to sabotage the entire U.S. health care system.
You can predict how that will go for him.
McCain’s vote, together with Graham’s note that he’s drafting a Bill for next week that will stop the Pres from firing without Congressional approval for cause, added to Grassley’s note that the Judiciary Committee’s calendar is too full to consider a Sessions’ replacement and one starts to see seeds planted that maybe, just maybe, Trump’s horror show may have done the impossible and that’s tell the Rep Congress that working with the Dems is a better option than working with Trump.
Pie in the sky, but there is a scoop of reality, eh?
plus ca change. That bill reminds me a lot of Andrew Johnson’s impeachment. I thought that was settled but never say never.
One party, two wings. Just as it has been for quite a while, really. But now…forced by Trump’s attacks… they are getting closer. As they do, the UniParty will start to become more and more apparent to the U.S. public. I predict…barring a complete turnaround by the Dems…a third party before the 2020 elections, and I hope it will be one that aims at the disaffected voters of this country.
It this happens, will it win?
I don’t know. It depends on too many factors. If the economy…the real, in-the-street, out-of-individual’s-pockets, not the media hype machine’s false news economy…continues to tank and/or if the neocentrists’ opposition to Trump fails while Trump himself wanders around the federal government like a hostile Alzheimer’s patient lost in a new neighborhood?
Yes, it could either win or at least make a huge dent in the political system of this country.
But if the hypesters continue to succeed in blinding an effective part of the public to the reality of what is going on in Washington and/or Trump manages to gin up another serious war?
I dunno.
All bets are off.
I’d like to see it happen, that’s for sure. I would like to be able to vote for a presidential candidate at least once in my life without needing to hold my nose.
Later…
AG
Nothing showed how close the two parties are to each other like last night!!
You’re a genius.
One party passes a law that expands medicaid and appoints Sonya Sotomayor to the Supreme Court. The other party votes to eliminate Medicaid and appoints Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court. Exactly the same! But the democrats are worse.
Hold on, AG made an actual prediction with date certain: a viable 3rd party arising before the 2020 election. No “bet on it.” No “we shall see.”
Speaking of begging the Democrats for forgiveness and help, how do you think the debt ceiling negotiations will play out?
With Paul Ryan whimpering like a baby and his career in ashes.
There’s no crying in Objectivism!
That comment made my late morning!
But there is drinking: Atlas Chugged.
Too delicious for words:
“If they’re going to quit, well then by God, maybe they ought to start at the top with Mitch McConnell leaving his position and letting somebody new, somebody bold, somebody conservative take the reins,” Brooks said. “It’s not necessarily anything bad about Mitch McConnell himself personally, but he’s got a job to do, and if he can’t do it, then as `The Apprentice’ would say, you’re fired. Get somebody who can.”
— Rep. Mo Brooks
Freedom Caucus, I drink your tears!
McConnell has had his ass handed to him on health care. Not by dems but by his own party’s extremism, hubris and insanity. They own this failure lock, stock and barrel.
Thinking of how GOP leadership crowed when Trump won and what they would do, The schadenfreude is just delicious.
I wouldn’t bet on it. Lots of centrist Democrats favor that.
Also, the regressive flat sales tax to replace the whole income tax.
Last sentence NOT aimed at centrist Democrats. AFAIK that’s an entirely far right wet dream. Mortgage deduction removal is bipartisan, however.
Yes. I can see the mortgage deduction being held hostage. With some dems pushing the idea that the wealthy are the main beneficiaries. Also too, employer health insurance plans are currently pre-tax. Wouldn’t be surprised if the idea of eliminating that benefit is discussed.
The wealthy are the main beneficiaries. A middle-class homeowner might get some benefit over the standard deduction, but it’s not very much, and a lot of the time they get no benefit at all. The median house is $200,000; if you have an 80% mortgage you’re paying $6,400 per year in deductible interest, which as only half of the standard deduction for married filing jointly. If said median owner doesn’t have another $6,000 in deductions, or they’ve partly paid off their house, they get no benefit at all. Even if they do squeak over the line it’s only a few hundred a year in benefits. Most of the benefit goes to the upper middle class and the upper class.
I itemize, and with the exception of one year, that particular deduction has done me no good. Rarely do I go over the standard deduction.
You are fortunate that you don’t have deductions for health care costs.
We’ve lucked out so far. But neither I nor my spouse are exactly spring chickens at this point. My plan’s maximum out of pocket is just enough that if one of us had something worse than what happened to my spouse last year, we would actually be able to itemize those and that would push us over the standard deduction. As it turned out if we paid off those expenses all at once last year rather than go for a payment plan, we could have itemized those expenses this last year – but maxing out a credit card for that purpose seemed counterproductive. But I’m not going to fool myself. We’re not that many years from that becoming itemizing our medical expenses. We’ll do what we can to take care of ourselves to forestall that, but these meat suits do eventually wear out.
You do know that your plan premiums count, right? My plan premiums bring me over the deductability threshold.
Said owner surely has property tax. Well over $6000 in Illinois outside Chicago. And only the poor live in $200K houses around here. New construction starts at $340K. And California! OMIGOD!
We used to have interest deductions on car loans and credit cards. Bit by bit these deductions are eroded making the others worth less as you point out. All my life being 65 or over was another full exemption. Until I became 65 and Obama took it away.
I see your point, but as a middle class homeowner in NYC, every little bit helps.
Except that the price of real estate keeps escalating so what was a working class starter home in the 1950s or 1960s in the Bay area that my ex bought for $800k, is now worth $1.3 Million.
That’s an extreme example. But, real estate in Colo is increasing 8% to 10% a year and has been for some time and will for the next couple of years. So, it increasingly is a significant amount – especially to a family whose income has NOT increased significantly.
Plus, as we found with the Bush tax cuts – people are grateful for a few pennies and resent anybody saying “that’s peanuts” they want that relief and don’t care if billionaires are getting 99% of the benefits.
The only winning political argument is to tell them “yes you are being taxed enough already. We want to raise taxes on billionaires, not the middle class. So, we’re not going to eliminate the mortgage interest deduction. Instead we’re making capital gains taxes much more progressive by raising rates dramatically at the high end.”
Would those be regular centrists or neo-centrists?
Not sure that tax reform of any sort can be passed through reconciliation (the budget math at the moment looks awful for them), nor given how toxic the atmosphere on the Hill at the moment if the Republicans could peel off enough Democratic Reps and Sens to vote with them. My guess is that nothing comes of that effort, and GOP tries to use tax reform as a campaign issue. Could be wrong. I have been many times.
That’s certainly possible. This ACA repeal seems to have poisoned the waters. Still, a few campaign contributions and “speaking fees” can do wonders to bring a politician around.
They’re not getting any budget savings from savaging Medicaid, so the tax reform will have to sunset after 10 years. Well, so what? The political calculus is the same as it was with the Bush tax cuts. Pass them now, and dare Congress in 10 years to let them sunset.
Inevitably there will be some kind of “fix” to adjust rates, but leave the bulk of the tax cuts for the rich in place. IT will take massive amounts of dynamite to change this dynamic to “hell yes! We’re raising taxes dramatically on the top 1%!!”
I’d like to see it but I’m not holding my breath.
Who are the centrist Democratic politicians that favor getting rid of the home mortgage deduction?
This deduction significantly benefits home owners in blue states.
Are centrists Democrats more likely to live, own homes in, and have greater influence in higher-income blue states?
If so, this is likely not a policy preference they would support.
Surely you can’t expect him to bother his busy, pretty little head with such niceties! In his world, Reality is way overrated.
Your writing is absurd. They came with one vote. Wake the fuck up. To pretend your predictions have been close to accurate is nonsensical.
You have been write about very little over the last 2 years, and you were surely wrong here.
On another note: let us praise the following blue dogs who never flinched on HCR. Whether they continue to hold is anyone;s guess, but on HCR they risked more than any of the 3 GOP no votes did.
I like how threatened you are by my consistently accurate predictions.
Martin my own take was exactly the opposite. I was surprised by how accurate your predictions have proved. Perhaps shocked is a better word. I thought and my friends thought that no GOP Senator has a soul and they would eventually make a bleating noise and then line up and support whatever they were told to.
That nearly happened, but not quite. The worst thing about this process is that their cynical political calculus is probably correct. Their base only watches Fox and will be told that anything that happens is somebody else’s fault. Somebody they have been trained to hate: coastal elites (whom they think are liberals), “big government”, immigrants, Muslims, whatever. So, probably their best political strategy is to screw everything up and then blame Democrats.
That’s not working because they are losing about 10% of the swing voters. But, their base couldn’t be happier with Trump. The more insane he gets, the better. The fact that he’s trying to take away THEIR health care doesn’t register, and never will.
You need more hagiography.
.
Nice. Straight to ad hominem. But it’s everyone else that’s assholes.
Pretty rich, coming from Mr. “Hillary will win by 10!” (and no, we’ll never let you live that down), not to mention Mr. “Stop talking about Russia, it will only distract us and the GOP will succeed in everything!”
I’m surprised by you, fladem. Maybe you are feeling extra grumpy this morning? Or does your post read nastier than intended?
“Wake the fuck up” is Arthur Gilroy’s patented line. You need something else.
Wait, weren’t you predicting Clinton +9%, and Ossof by +3, using Excel spreadsheets and all sorts of data?
Clearly, abstract reasoning has at least as much value as reading numbers carefully placed in columns.
The republicans appear to have had enough of Trump’s bullying. The question is, does Trump have any propensity for humility and any capacity for applying common sense and realizing its game over for his tough but dumb approach to leadership?
Muhahahahahahahahaha! That’s rich. Putting Trump and “common sense” or “humility” together in a sentence.
A couple of observations on WV Senate delegation.
Everyone continues to repeat that Manchin is in trouble in WV. From whom and how? All the announced opponents were for the ACA repeal or voted for it in the House. That is a pretty big stick to beat them with.
Capito is a few years out but unless there is a complete turn around for a fix of ACA, her votes will be hung around her neck. People I work with have been calling her office and haranguing her staff about upcoming votes.
So all the talk about how smart McCain was in saving his other Republicans from voting No, their Yes votes are just ammunition for ads in the coming elections.
Also, in other forums, for the last year there have been disparaging remarks about Manchin. How he is a closet Republican. How his stands on guns and coal didn’t meet the necessary thresholds. How he should just switch parties and let the Democrats run a real Liberal in WV, etc…
Ignorant fantasy. In a continent wide country, there will be varying interests which elected politicians have to serve. So, there has to be Party flexibility on some smaller votes so they will be in the seat for the Big Votes. And health care is a Big Vote. A vote that may haunt some Yes votes for years.
R
Vox had one of the more cautious headlines: Why Senate Republicans couldn’t repeal Obamacare For now. That seems appropriate, and leads me to wonder what it would take for the Senate GOP to reanimate the zombie bill yet again.
Sen. Graham met with the White House occupant is trying to revive a plan he and Cassidy cooked up as an alternative to the other repeal bills. There is mischief yet to be made perhaps. This was a draft bill that gained no real traction when it was floated earlier. May not go anywhere now, but who knows. But it is worth keeping an eye on, just in case.
It’s never over, even when its over.
Yep. As Axios is reporting, lot’s of motion but now movement. If another repeal vote rears its ugly head, it will be swift and sudden. Hence my warning to avoid complacency. Any form of repeal through reconciliation is probably much less likely, but improbable is not equivalent to impossible.
One possible argument in favor of the zombie really being dead (credit to one of my friends via conversation):
We all know the basics of reconciliation rules, and that Congress only gets to vote on one bill per topic per budget. When McCain voted yes to proceed, he set in motion the events that culminated in the failure in the earliest hours of this morning (Eastern Time). Had McCain come in and voted against a motion to proceed, that would have allowed McConnell to continue to draft revisions, wrangle with Senators, and perhaps come up with a bill that could get the bare minimum votes to pass. By voting against the “skinny bill” that was the final result, McCain (whether he knew or not, or whether he cared or not) prevented a repeal vote from happening again until Congress passes a new budget, which may be a tough battle in its own right.
Maybe this particular zombie is dead? Someone who’s smarter than me on these matters can confirm, I hope. Of course there are plenty of other zombies that we’ll be contending with for a while to come.
That’s interesting, thanks!
right. I, too, would love to see confirmation from someone with appropriate expertise (anyone? Bueller? booman?).
Marie? AG?
.
I hope my friend is right as well. Certainly seems much more savvy on the intricacies of these matters than I am. Still, I would love to have someone (Booman would be ideal) who has a better grasp on what is doable and not doable under reconciliation confirm that repeal is well and truly dead. I know I would rest a bit easier.
I think that, in retrospect, and viewed dispassionately, it is a little too easy to say that passage of a grandiose repeal/replace plan was not in the cards. The Republicans were not exhibiting a great deal of rationality at any point in this process. I think that it is entirely possible that they would have passed some horrendous plan through both houses because of the enormous pressure on them from outside groups and the weight of their own promises. Look at Heller – he first tied himself at the hip to his governor, abandoned him when the governor straight up begged him to reject the skinny bill, and finally voted in favor of the bill after it was already dead. The guy wasn’t thinking straight, and almost all of the Republicans were in the same boat.
He was being whipsawed by Trump. Remember that unhappy look he had on his face while Trump sat there with him this week and said “It appears Sen. Heller would like to remain a U.S. Senator.” in exactly the same tone of voice Vito Corleone would use in making someone an offer they can’t refuse.
Trump was threatening to go on a rant against him if Heller didn’t vote right, which would sink Heller with his hard right voters. And Democrats and independents already hate him so his only chance is to appease the far right and hope everybody else forgets.