I’ve written in depth about the Republicans’ plan for enacting tax reform a few times in the recent past. Maybe I am a masochist, because I can’t think of too many subjects less likely to stir the hearts of my progressive readership, and yet I keep coming back to this topic.
I have a couple of reasons for this. For one, it gives me an excellent opportunity to talk about congressional procedure in a way that is relevant and timely. For another, the desire for a tax reform bill is a huge factor in understanding the behavior of Republicans who aren’t fans or true allies of the president. The prospect of a big corporate and/or personal income tax cut is an adhesive that has been keeping the GOP from retreating from the president’s lines and risking a full-on rout. Were the prospects of tax reform to die completely, it’s likely Trump’s isolation would become fatal. Therefore, it’s in my interests as a patriotic and self-respecting American to speed that understanding along. Because the Republicans aren’t going to succeed in getting a tax reform bill passed.
I’ve been careful to note that there are potential fallback positions available, at least in theory. It’s still possible that Trump could give up on a total rewrite of the tax code and settle for a less ambitious tax cut that would be acceptable to at least eight Democratic senators. Of course, it would have to be a truly bipartisan bill with buy-in from some of the more powerful and important Democrats on the tax-writing committees. That would require such a thorough rethink of strategy by the White House and by the congressional Republican leadership that it’s hard to imagine at the moment. But it could happen eventually, after all other avenues for getting a “win” are demonstrated to be dead ends. It wouldn’t be a very plausible “win,” but I guess it would be better than total failure.
Trump’s top economic adviser, Gary Cohn, just moved the goalposts on tax reform by announcing that the White House doesn’t expect tax reform to be completed until the end of 2017. If you were paying attention, though, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that same thing in July after having earlier promised a signed bill before the August recess. The difference there is that Mnuchin also said in July that the White House would release a plan in early September. That has now changed.
The White House does not plan to release its own version of a tax reform plan and will instead leave that to the congressional leadership and the major tax-writing committees, a senior administration official said Thursday. The decision to hand off the specifics of tax reform comes after the administration promised earlier this summer to release a full tax plan when Congress returned from its August recess.
If you’ve been reading my pieces on this subject, you can’t be surprised about the delay. As I’ve said, a prerequisite for starting work on tax reform is passing a new budget with special reconciliation directives. There aren’t enough legislative days available in September for the Republicans to be diverted to a subject as time-consuming as tax reform. But it’s definitely news that the White House has given up on providing a framework bill for Congress to work with as a template.
My more conspiratorial mind suggests to me that this is a gambit by the White House to push off an admission of failure. By keeping the issue alive at least until the end of the year and giving Congress full ownership, they can prevent the adhesive from losing its stick.
But tax reform really is dead, and if we can somehow make this more broadly understood, it will hasten the point when Congress and many powerful Republican players lose their incentive for putting up with Trump’s antics and the peril he presents for our security.
As for Cohn, he’s basically asking to be fired and relieved of his duty by making it known that duty is the only reason he hasn’t resigned in the face of the president’s pro-Nazi position.
“I have come under enormous pressure both to resign and to remain in my current position. … As a patriotic American, I am reluctant to leave my post … because I feel a duty to fulfill my commitment to work on behalf of the American people. But I also feel compelled to voice my distress over the events of the last two weeks.”
…
“As a Jewish American, I will not allow neo-Nazis ranting ‘Jews will not replace us’ to cause this Jew to leave his job,” he says. “I feel deep empathy for all who have been targeted by these hate groups. We must all unite together against them.”
But Cohn wasn’t really talking about neo-Nazis tempting him to quit; he was talking about the president doing that. And his comments amount to a pretty stunning rebuke of his boss.
We’ll see what his boss does about it, because we’re in pretty uncharted territory here. Does Trump tolerate his own aides publicly chastising him in this manner? It’s almost as if Cohn is daring Trump to fire him — and relieve him of his own conflicted feelings about serving this president.
If Cohn were to quit, he thinks he’d be giving the Nazis a win, and it certainly would be considered a win by Steve Bannon. But he’s set things up so that Trump has to either tolerate being called a Nazi appeaser by his chief economic adviser or prove Cohn’s point by doing the Nazis’ bidding and getting rid of him.
I have no idea how that will shake out, but it’s one more reason why you can rest assured that a comprehensive tax reform isn’t going anywhere.
At this point in the week I’m just on bad news overload and don’t have anything to contribute except to ask: is it really correct to use the word “strategy” any time you’re talking about the current White House?
As long as you follow it with “abandoned.”
Martin, this is the reason I’m so glad you’re back. For pieces like this one (that I can find nowhere else). I do not understand why you’ve not gained the acclaim that many other bloggers have received: Those who have huge followings or who get interviewed by the MSM. But most of us here see your insightfulness and recognize your brilliance. Thanks for doing what you do.
BooMan, there’s another important point about the focus of this blog, that may not have come up yesterday:
When you write an in-depth analysis like this one (the kind you’re saying gets fewer clicks), and couple it with a straightforward, unequivocal prediction — a clear answer to a predictive question that everyone’s got (will the ACA pass; will they achieve their budget goals) — which turns out to be correct, it creates a kind of feedback-loop for your readership.
In other words, if even a casual reader skims one of these long analyses and says, “I’m not following this, and I’m not really interested…but he’s saying Jeb will drop out [or whatever]; I’ll note that” — and then you turn out to be right — that reader will begin to think, “I should really start reading and absorbing those long BooMan analyses because, whether I understand them or not, this guy’s got his eye on the ball.”
And I really wouldn’t underestimate the value of this. Lots of people in lots of contexts can sound really smart, or make pretty sentences or create the impression of generating valuable insights…but accuracy (particularly with predictions) is where the rubber meets the road, and that’s where you really excel.
It takes time for readers to pick up on this, obviously, as BooMan predictions are borne out…so I would just diffidently recommend, keep trumpeting your accuracy in headlines, and quoting your old pieces, to emphasize just how good a prognosticator you are.
(And, I don’t mean to diminish the value of any of the other elements of your work — far from it. I’m simply saying, from a hype standpoint, that’s something to really hype, because it’s valuable and rare and can’t be faked.)
His predictions haven’t been right for over 2 years.
He badly underestimated how close the GOP got to HCR. And HCR is still on the calendar.
He wrote that Trump should just give up about 3 months agop. He challenged me in the comments that Trump would be out by labor day. But Trump has already made massive changes in immigration, the Courts and the environment (not that anyone cares about the environment).
I think he is badly underestimating the chances of tax reform here.
He is not alone in this mistake: we have consistently underestimated Trump since he entered the race.
He writes this:
“But tax reform really is dead, and if we can somehow make this more broadly understood”
It isn’t.
My problem with under estimating the opponent is that it makes the job harder for those of us who are trying to organize the opposition.
We were one goddamn vote from losing Obamacare. At not point did Booman in the events leading up to the vote really come to grips with the chance that the might win that vote.
keep telling yourself this.
Actually, I think quite a few serious political bloggers read Booman or at least read the links commenters on this site link to him on specific topics and, of course, Washington Monthly. And even the long form analyses are pretty clearly written though if you don’t follow his previous discussions on a particular topic you have to go back to previous discussions.
There are as many conflicting stories about the status of the White House and its staff as there are stars in the sky. Committees are understaffed, programs are half-prepared, departments are under mutual leadership or none at all.
Chaos is not a good foundation for anything moving forward.
The Republicans’ desperate attempts to keep Trump on task and on message fail every day. Kelly can’t rein him in and even if he kept him quiet for a day, Trump would probably explode on Twitter the next day. Trump is his own worst enemy, and an enemy to the Republicans as well.
Tax reform, health care reform, the immediacy of a natural disaster in Texas and neighboring states all need attention. But no one’s focused enough or experienced enough to get their shit in a bag and go forward.
Democrats need to keep applying steady pressure and push for Senators and members of the House to flip in exasperation. It will continue to be a major circus for the Trump followers. A house divided will not stand. We have to be there to help bring it down.
The dems are applying pressure. Surfed the cable news this am and talking point today….Trump is not a republican.
I liked your Washington Monthly title for this article better:
When Will People Realize That Tax Reform Is Dead?
won’t fit here w/o breaking the comment headers.
Makes sense. I noticed the titles are often different between the two sites. had wondered if someone else chose the titles on the other site.
Hmm, when Menendez gets convicted and Christie appoints a replacement they’ll probably take another crack at Obamacare.
Repeal of Obamacare is not dead. It is a zombie.
Hell of a job Brownie. I hear the echoes yet. Trump says he has full faith and confidence in local resources. Well, shit yes, it sure as hell ain’t his problem. Maybe it’s Tom Bossert’s job. He’s out there talking about it.
Its good to hear that you feel comprehensive tax reform is dead. But he will cobble together some sort of tax cut, of that I feel pretty sure.
“Trump’s isolation would become fatal…”
I understand the notion that DC Repubs remain mum on our Fasci…er, Trumpism because they are a’hankering for juicy future tax cuts for their plutocrat owners. But as this latest WH chaos-show development makes clear, Congressional Repubs are in charge of delivering the Holy Tax Cuts, not Der Trumper, and obviously Trumper (desperate for any “WIN!!”) will sign whatever tax bill they shit out. And this would be true even if the party as a whole began denouncing Trumper as the American Mussolini figure he most clearly is.
But I would think that the main reason DC Repubs keep holding their tongues and keep Trumper out of “isolation” is the simple fact that Repub primary voters love their horrendous Trumper and hate Congressional Repubs. The incompetent white electorate loves the developing Race War that Trumper is obviously embarking on, and they love his open hatred of demonic lib’ruls, as well as the media.
It will be the incompetence of Congressional Repubs that wrecks tax “reform” (which I had thought was just a verbal fig leaf for across the board tax cuts, not something to be taken seriously). If they can’t even pass their phony budget bills with their phony “instructions” to get their 10 year tax cuts via reconciliation, then they really are beyond incompetent, and one would think the plutocrats would have to ask whether anyone here can play this game.
In such a situation the future of the filibuster keeps raising its head, of course. Once Mitch McC opted to use it as a 100% minority party veto in order to destroy both a Dem Congress and a legitimate two term Dem prez, he signed its death warrant, since he is not going to be allowed to let Schumer pull the same shit on a (concededly illegitimate) Repub prez that Mitchipoo pulled on the hated Obammy.
It now looks as though the senate Repubs will see if their expected annihilation of Trump state Dems occurs in 2018 and their super-majority can then run the table. If not, the filibuster will have to be gone as of Jan 2019 or the plutocrats will go apeshit….
Even if the white house weren’t as dysfunctional as it is, and Trump weren’t the president, tax reform would still be a long shot for the republicans, what with the huge ideological gulf between the fire breathing extremists, the “moderates”, the so called problem solvers and the establishment. Over time the GOP has raised the “art” of politics without compromise to such a degree that these groups won’t even tolerate compromise with other factions in the party, let alone democratic votes.
For any one of these factions to lead the way in passing something, they’re going to need democratic votes, and a lot of these legislators would rather burn their crosses in public than do that. So they’re dead in the water with or without their Orange Fuhrer.
A tax cut, if passed, will be called “tax reform.”
Yesterday the last county in the country without an ACA provider got one. All counties now have providers for 2018.