When I lived in Florida, one learned to watch the Gulf very carefully. I was a regular reader of Jeff Masters at the weather underground. I can still remember his writing on Katrina.
Part of lving in Florida is learning to learn about the forecasts and the models. The two best are the Euro and the GFS.
So consider below 60 inches of rain. It is unimaginable. Cataclysmic.
Let me translate this: the most reliable hurricane model is projecting 60 inches of rain for Texas – an unimaginable number. https:/t.co/VGFep0vv40
— dcg1114 (@dcg1114) August 25, 2017
I always recomment following Jeff Masters, who is here.
He cites another piece that is worth reading. Pro-publica did a piece on the effect of a hurricane hitting Houston. This isn’t likely to be a direct hit on Houston, but the size of the hurricane and the amount of rain may make some of what is described possible.
https:/www.wunderground.com/cat6/hurricane-harvey-rapidly-intensifies-catastrophic-flooding-likely-
texas
Trump will not be able to say Apres moi, les deluge, eh?
As the weather disasters begin to mount in the new Man-Made climate, the old model of national disaster relief based on the (intentionally destroyed) natural climate will need to be re-examined.
Texas has been the Mothership of the “conservative” movement for decades now, and its politicians have been instrumental in ensuring that absolutely nothing has been accomplished to protect the natural climate, when their people were literally going to be at some of the greatest risk in the new man-made climate. Is it reasonable to expect others to pay for completely predictable disasters that one’s own pigheaded politics have massively enabled? Where’s the “personal responsibility” in that?
Good luck down there….
Trump has run away to Camp David and left Pence in DC. My husband was watching MSNBC in his man cave and when I walked in Mike Brown was giving the donald advise.
Trump’s FEMA Director is Brock Long. One of the few of his appointees that has actual relevant prior experience. He may flub on the job, but he’s no “Brownie.” Nor is Michael Brown a member of Trump’s administration; all he did was write a letter to Trump cautioning him to avoid the mistakes he and the Bush administration made during hurricane Katrina.
Another reminder of the inherent difficulty of predicting hurricanes. As good as, and much improved over the decades, the NWS hurricane projection models have become, the speed with which some organize and some deteriorate messes with the models. Then there’s the added complexity of estimating the wind (h. Andrew), storm surge (h Sandy), and rain (Superstorm of 1993) risks of the hurricane.