Eric Fisher, Chief Meteorologist @CBSBoston w/reports for @CBSNews:
Irma ticks up another notch at 2pm…now 185mph winds! Breaks own record for strongest hurricane east of the Caribbean.
To appreciate that development, check out the NOAA presentation of hurricanes that formed in the far eastern Atlantic basin
Normally it takes storms some time to get their acts together once they leave the West African coastline, only intensifying to hurricane strength after spending many days over warm ocean waters. In Fred’s case, the storm took advantage of an unusually short window where conditions were favorable for a quick development, a rare case so close to Africa.
In fact, only one storm, Hurricane Vince in 2005, became a hurricane farther east than Fred,…
Note from the graphic that none of these known hurricanes managed to reach western hemisphere land masses. Irma was a tropical storm until it was more than 420 miles west of Cape Verde which was still a bit further east than most serious hurricanes that reach the west. Moving further west, it organized and strengthened quickly.
At that point, August 31, 2017, when it was 650 miles west of Cape Verde, it fluctuated between a Cat 2 and Cat 3 and expected to strengthen to a Cat 4. Its projected track remained unclear but a shift north and dissipation far out at sea were becoming less likely and near the Leeward Islands was a given.
See the Sep 2, 2017 projected track here. Irma’s projected track changed significantly over the next two days. Much further west and a threat to the Dominican Republic and Cuba.
A hurricane warning is in effect for the eastern most islands in the Caribbean: Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Monserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis , Saba, St. Eustasias, Sint Maarten, St. Martin and St. Barthelemy.
Today Irma strengthened to a Cat 5 (up from a Cat 4 announced yesterday) The latest projected track reduces that area of DR that may be impacted but all of Cuba and a larger portion of South Florida is now in the zone.
Hurricane warning:
Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis, Saba, St. Eustatius and Sint Maarten, Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy, British Virgin Islands, U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra
The good news is that South Florida residents spent the weekend stocking up on emergency supplies ahead of Gov Scott’s State of Emergency declaration yesterday (June 4). Assuming the empty store shelves can be quickly resupplied for those that didn’t or couldn’t make their purchases over the weekend, South Florida residents will be better prepared than most for a potential hurricane.
Effective noon today Key West Transit has suspended all fare for all routes including the Lower Key Shuttle, in prep of Hurricane Irma.
8:43 AM – 5 Sep 2017
Use the diary thread for whatever, but updates, etc. on Hurricane Irma are most appreciated.
Update #1
Irma has now maintained 185 mph winds for 24 hours – no Atlantic or eastern Pacific #hurricane has ever stayed this strong for so long.
Central pressure Wed am, 914 millibars, only the lowest in a decade.
Eric Fisher
(Nice graphic in the tweet if anyone wants to pore over the data.)
What’s more interesting to me is that only a few days ago, a U.S. east coast track, anywhere from Florida to NC seemed to be preferred.
(If prayer worked, I would asked that this sucker contracts and pulls off a devastating pinpoint prick on Mar-a-Lago.)
Irma was headed straight for another Trump mansion on the Caribbean island of St. Martin. Nice digs.
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article171290172.html
Could explain why Trump has been monitoring it.
St. Martin has been hit; so, TrumpInc will know soon enough how they’ve fared. Might be in for another drop in its listing price.
Updates
To be fair to Texas, Irma is giving FL far more advance notice than Harvey gave TX. Still, FL is using the time to do the right things, much of which wasn’t done in TX. Note: Abbott’s first order for the National Guard was a measly 3,000.
The track has moved right, and now the two best models, the Euro and the GFS show it missing Florida and going into SC. But anything could happen: including missing the US entirely.
From a more recent run.
If this is true it will bring a stronger storm than Andrew to Miami.
For the uninitiated, pressure is the best metric for a Hurricane’s strength. The list of Hurricanes that ever got below 900 millibars is very short, and only one, the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 ever made landfall with a pressure below 900.
The Euro shows a very similar track, but a weaker hurricane (though still on the line between a 4 and a 5)
Latest tracking projection looks more like those from +48 hours ago than those from -48 hours. Further north; enough to reduce the projected impact on DR and Cuba and could miss both.
Wonder if any of the variables the models rely on are giving the forecasters fits. Still as it’s conservatively +72 hours away from a possible hit to the southernmost parts of FL, the probable could be missed.
There is a ridge which is going to turn Irma. The timing that the ridge descends and turns Irma North is what is causing uncertainty now.
The Hill – Trump’s NASA pick deletes posts from social media: report
Another unqualified Trump nominee. Didn’t know that TrumpCo and the GOP were looking to destroy NASA. Global climate change deniers are anti-science and that’s not what NASA, NIH, etc. need in the head of the agency.