It’s admittedly hard to read a man like Donald Trump. He isn’t consistent. His word is not good. His comprehension of some of the basics of our system of government is shockingly low. His understanding of history, both recent and distant, is horribly flawed. His grasp of what is easy and difficult doesn’t appear to exist. He beat all his political opponents without seeming to have a realistic and overarching strategy, but more through a series of tactical battles that involved as many big losses as big wins. He lives in the moment and doesn’t follow even a basic script. He’s driven by lower emotions and is blinded to larger concerns.
So, it wasn’t really possible to confidently predict that he would not want to deport the Dreamers. His reaction to Charlottesville and his pardon of Joe Arpaio could have legitimately led people to conclude that his racial animosity would outweigh his compassion and that his strategic vision was focused on shoring up the support of his racist base.
I perhaps am willing to give him too much credit for strategic thinking, although I’m wary of underestimating him after having done so for too long. But, I saw some of his racial misbehavior in August as a potential prophylactic against the backlash he knew was coming in September when he knew he would have to back down on DACA and the border wall and strike a deal with the Democrats on fiscal and budgetary issues.
After all, the backlash was very predictable:
At this point, who DOESN’T want Trump impeached? https://t.co/g1mMhmm8ng
— Ann Coulter (@AnnCoulter) September 14, 2017
@RealDonaldTrump If AP is correct, Trump base is blown up, destroyed, irreparable, and disillusioned beyond repair. No promise is credible. https://t.co/uJjxk6uX5g
— Steve King (@SteveKingIA) September 14, 2017
Some think Trump doesn’t function on a level that makes this kind of foresight and deftness possible for him, and they have plenty of evidence to back up their position. For myself, I remain undecided but will err on the side of giving him too much credit. It’s the more prudent position, especially after losing to him once before in catastrophic fashion.
Nonetheless, the man does not learn or change easily. His blind spots are so huge that he will continue to wander into dead-end alleys. That he found himself in the position he was at in the beginning of September is a testament to his colossal lack of imagination and foresight. And, honestly, he only became somewhat easy to predict when his options had narrowed to a pinpoint.
He’s also a callous and unfeeling man. His approach on DACA is unconscionable because he is so concerned to preserve some face that he’s willing to leave all the Dreamers hanging in a suspended state, with all the fear and anxiety that creates for them and their friends and loved ones. Even if he’s committed to doing the right thing in the end, he’s going about it in such an awful and immoral way that he can’t be given much credit for it.
He’s recently learned through hard experience that he can’t rely on the Republicans in Congress to unite behind must-pass legislation, and now he’s relying on them to pass the DREAM Act. What if they can’t, or won’t?
I assume he will provide cover for Speaker Ryan so that he can introduce the bill even though it will break an explicit promise Ryan made as a condition of winning Republican support to become the Speaker of the House. But it may be difficult for Ryan to get any bill through the committee process, or to pass a version that will be acceptable to the Senate.
Instead of sending Jeff Sessions out to announce the end of DACA, Trump could have just made the statement he made this morning:
“We’re working on a plan — subject to getting massive border controls. We’re working on a plan for DACA. People want to see that happen. You have 800,000 young people, brought here, no fault of their own. So we’re working on a plan, we’ll see how it works out. We’re going to get massive border security as part of that. And I think something can happen, we’ll see what happens, but something will happen.”
“We want to get massive border security. And I think that both Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer, I think they agree with it.”
“Mitch is on board, Paul Ryan’s on board. We all feel — look, 92% of the people agree on DACA — but what we want is very, very powerful border security, okay?”
That would have been the humane way to announce he was backing down on deporting the Dreamers. Would Ann Coulter and Rep. Steve King have been any harsher in their criticism?
In any case, Trump is never going to be a decent human being. But he has learned that there’s no future in relying on McConnell and Ryan to turn him into a successful president. He learned it too late, but he’s had a month and half since the failure of Obamacare repeal to prepare (and be prepared) for a pivot. Republican voters by and large endorse Trump’s move in the Democrats’ direction, which is a testament to how unpopular the congressional Republicans have become.
Trump didn’t get to this point because he wanted to be here.
President Trump’s courtship of congressional Democrats intensified on Wednesday as he asserted a willingness to work with them on tax reform, immigration and infrastructure.
“Some of the greatest legislation ever passed, it was done in a bipartisan manner,” Trump told a group of moderate Republican and Democratic lawmakers at the White House. “And so that is what we are going to give a shot.”
You have to set your expectations at the lowest setting to give him credit for this. He didn’t learn until all his initial plans were in ashes and he was facing a national credit default and a government shutdown.
But, yes, you can say that he is pivoting now. Of course, is it really a pivot if the only way out of a blind alley is to go back the way you came in?
He is probably also drunk on media praising him for being bipartisan.
I wonder about that, because almost all the media I saw after he “made his deal” was brutal. Either he was duped and taken for a ride or he was a complete sell-out with zero principles. I’m talking about cable news the night it was announced, from both the right and the left.
Yet, he really did call Pelosi and say the news coverage was great.
I just couldn’t figure out what he was watching or reading.
Isn’t his info package filtered to show him the most laudatory stuff? You know, to keep his spirits up or whatever? He doesn’t perhaps have as wide a media landscape as thee and me.
Kelly did some epic curating?
BooMan:
“I perhaps am willing to give him too much credit for strategic thinking, although I’m wary of underestimating him after having done so for too long. But, I saw some of his racial misbehavior in August as a potential prophylactic against the backlash he knew was coming in September when he knew he would have to back down on DACA and the border wall and strike a deal with the Democrats on fiscal and budgetary issues.”
Me: You’re giving Trump way too much credit here. Trump is not capable of strategic thinking.
P.S. I would swear that block quote used to work on this site. Am I crazy?
Seems to be working for me.
Make sure the button below your comment box is set to “AutoFormat” and the blockquote html should work for you.
Thanks. I was already set for Auto Format. It didn’t work last week; ever hopeful, I am trying again now.
edit: okay, today it works. yay!
How about this, though?
Is he capable of listening to strategic advice?
For example, “Sir, I am the director of FEMA and we run out of money next Tuesday.”
Is that something he can hold in his head for two days?
Because, if it is, then the next step is to ask aides how to get the disaster relief money pronto.
And, lately, it seems like Panetta is advising Kelly on how to get things done, like a debt ceiling bill or avoiding a shutdown, which means real advice is getting through.
I immediately say pairing the debt ceiling with disaster relief as an out for the jam he was on, and as a win for Ryan who was REALLY jammed up. But Trump got that advice from someone and was willing to take it.
It’s strategy, however attenuated and belated.
I continue to believe that any effectiveness we see from the White House is down to Shadow President Kelly.
I suspect you are right about that.
I remain certain that Trump is not capable of strategic thinking.
Is he capable of accepting strategic advice from Shadow President General Kelly? Before I can answer that question, I have to know if Kelly is the last person in the room. If so, then yes, I consider that a possibility.
Since I didn’t vote for Kelly, the jury is out for me on whether I consider that somewhat calming or totally terrifying.
I’m going with “somewhat calming” for now.
You’re “wary of underestimating him” and prefer to give him too much credit for strategic thinking… except that doing this now is possibly the worst of all possible worlds, from his perspective.
He’s pissing off the very people he will need to save his ass when it’s Mueller Time. Meanwhile, he’s burned his bridges so badly with Democrats that there is no way he can go down that path. Or, to use your analogy, he had to turn around and retrace his steps down that blind alley, but there’s a bunch of Democrats with clubs and nunchuks waiting for him at the entrance.
You’ve said yourself that, had he done this from the beginning, things might look quite different now. I will say that I’m impressed that he’s capable of doing this at all, but that’s not saying much.
The man is thoroughly screwed. What he’s doing right now amounts to increasing the spread on his impeachment vote. Which is what he will have earned, for destroying the GOP.
Crediting him for some degree of strategic thinking is not the same as saying that he has a brilliant strategy.
It’s the difference between him having literally no short-term memory at all and absolutely no ability to anticipate the future, and his having some small degree of those things.
Trump didn’t destroy the GOP (to the extent it has actually been destroyed; this is a party whose demise has been predicted several times before), the GOP very clearly is destroying itself at least as a functioning legislative machine. As someone widely observed (perhaps on this site, I can’t remember): the GOP is good at getting elected but can’t govern whereas the Democrats are terrible at getting elected but pretty good at governing.
Trump may indeed be trying to pivot but, just as Panetta seems to be giving Kelly sound advice on approaches to getting things sensibly done so Schumer and Pelosi are going to have to have more dinner meetings with Trump or whoever is the WH legislative outreach person(s) to get actual legislation formulated in a way that attracts both Democratic and GOP votes. I am skeptical that can happen. Democrats have little interest in making Trump look good and Trump has shown next to no understanding of Washington politics.
Bottom line: relatively small but popular initiatives like DACA can happen but big stuff like infrastructure and real tax reform seem completely out of the question unless and until the Democrats take back both chambers of Congress in 2018, which still seems like a long shot.
BTW, I assume that the estimated 500,000 dreamers that didn’t sign up for DACA will remain screwed in the event that a DACA fix is found, right?
Well, after getting an earful for a few days, the risk is that he will stumble back into that alley again. He’s an impulsive, weak-willed guy and seems to do most of his thinking on the “outside,” whereas most of us run cost/benefit calculations on the inside. When thought 1 enters his head, he starts acting on it. If he is then met with pleasure (including any pleasure derived from harming his “enemies”), he will pursue thought 1. If he is met with pain, he will proceed to thought 2, and so on. I think this explains his behavior reasonably well.
Something about DACA appeals to his ego – whether because he thinks he can use it for concessions on border security, or perhaps because he likes the idea of enacting something into law that Obama couldn’t, or because he thinks of himself as a hero to DACA participants. Anyway, he seems to want something done, and so maybe it will get done (or at least further fracture the Republicans).
Thank you! Retreats from a Blind Alley is many times more accurate than pivot. Great piece, BooMan. You have been on fire lately. My go-to blog.
Trump has a very well developed plan.
On the first hole he will try to avoid the out of bounds on the right by trying to play a cut.
Beyond that he is entirely of the moment. His only real belief is in his own excellence, and that he must be strong. He has some generalized notion that government gets in the way of business too much, and a generalized idea that the police should be supported and that liberals are too easy on criminals (and blacks). But he has no ideology. He has a marketing plan.
This is his strength in a way. He is not bound by anything he said before – that does not matter.
The reality for Trump hasn’t changed. He’s losing bigly on everything. Ryan and McConnell are useless in getting anything Trump wants done. Now he knows that.
He just avoided disaster on debt ceiling, and suddenly the press is adoring him as “bi-partisan” but his base is nervous. So, after taking needless flack because he’s a moron, he walks back his statement.
But, he still needs wins and has none worth mentioning. The Base still loves him for SAYING what they’ve all been thinking since the Civil Rights movement “all this tolerance is all a bad idea!”
So, he can go to Dems any time he wants a win. And he’s going to start needing wins pretty soon or else he’ll be a lame duck with 3 years to go! & facing impeachment inquiries.
He doesn’t have to worry what the professional GOP thinks. The base trusts him so long as he doesn’t publicly abandon the Wall, which he’ll never do and HATES McConnell & Ryan with a blind passion. There’s zero chance they will turn on Trump anytime soon.
There are lots of ways out for him. Best is to cut deals with Democrats on all kinds of things and blame McConnell and Ryan for having to do so.
The base will side with him because nobody can understand why the GOP couldn’t just nuke the filibuster and get everything he wants passed, but they won’t do that. I thought they’d do that by now because “screw the traditions of the Senate.” Apparently I was wrong.
Of course it will work. These are Real Merkins(tm) after all.
I’d like to think that the arrival of his grandchild was still in his mind when he met with Pelosi who congratulated him and wove that arrival into their DACA conversation in order to bear fruit. She’s a wiley one and would recognize that she could squeeze his one drop of empathy.
He took a shot at McCain today saying that since he voted down repeal of Obamacare, the dems are now proposing single payer. Kinda like ‘well, then damn you McCain, now look what you did.’
He seems always to be angling to take shots at people, friend or foe. How can anyone like this turd?
I’m glad you added a lot of qualifications to the idea that Trump is starting to “get it”. Because he still doesn’t get it. It’s like he just realized …. “oops, I forgot to pander to my base.”
Ahh, the pander of diminishing returns.
We have a saying in Yiddish, “with one ass you can’t dance at two weddings.”
Forgot the link!
http://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/ej-montini/2017/09/14/montini-trumps-wall-of-promises-d
aca-tumbles-down/665755001/