Let’s see if we can count to three, because that’s how many Republican senators it will take to kill the Graham-Cassidy plan to destroy the Affordable Care Act and deny thirty million Americans their access to health care. All these articles were published within the last few hours:
One (Game):
Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) announced on Friday that he will vote against the latest GOP effort to repeal ObamaCare, potentially dooming the legislation.
“I cannot in good conscience vote for the Graham-Cassidy proposal. I believe we could do better working together, Republicans and Democrats, and have not yet really tried,” he said in a statement, referring to the legislation spearheaded by GOP Sens. Lindsey Graham (S.C) and Bill Cassidy (La.).
Two (Set):
Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) said on Friday she has serious concerns about the latest GOP bill to repeal and replace ObamaCare as Republicans prepare to vote on the legislation next week.
“I’m leaning against the bill,” Collins told the Portland Press-Herald. “I’m just trying to do what I believe is the right thing for the people of Maine.”
…“The premiums would be so high they would be unaffordable,” she said, referring to the cost for individuals with pre-existing health conditions.
Three (Match):
Rand Paul, a definitive “no” on Senate Republicans’ last-ditch effort to repeal and replace Obamacare, “won’t be bribed or bullied” into supporting the bill, the Kentucky Republican said Friday.
“Calling a bill that KEEPS most of Obamacare ‘repeal’ doesn’t make it true. That’s what the swamp does,” Paul tweeted. “I won’t be bribed or bullied.”
Paul’s tweets came after President Donald Trump singled him out in seeking to pressure GOP lawmakers via Twitter on Friday morning to back the bill.
I guess we don’t need to worry about whether or not Lisa Murkowski of Alaska can be successfully bribed. Although, I wonder how she’s feeling about the constant threats.
I’m not sure why McCain decided to weigh in today. He got so much mileage out of leaving everyone in doubt until the last minute back in August, the last time it seemed like the Senate Republicans might actually might pass a bill. I thought for sure that he’d milk this unexpected second opportunity for all it is worth, too.
Of the three, Collins is actually the least definitive in her opposition. I guess maybe they should focus on her now, although it’s looking pretty hopeless at this point.
If nothing changes over the weekend, it will be interesting to see if any other Republicans publicly declare their opposition. It might be best to give McConnell an excuse not to hold the vote at all, since I don’t see the upside of putting this all on the record.
I still don’t trust Rand Paul, but he seems very dug in at this point. It’s really the obvious level of desperation on the Republicans’ part to pass something that got me concerned for the first time about something actually going through in both houses of Congress. I never have seen where the votes in the Senate would come from, though. I worried most about McCain and Paul. Their statements today are encouraging, and maybe we can finally rest easy sometime soon.
In the meantime, you should still tell your representatives how you feel because if you don’t, how will they know?
Of course, McCain’s statement mentions how “Democrats rammed through” the ACA in 2009. I was almost ready to like him.
Actually trying to add onto my own…this comment from another site makes sense to me.
It might be John McCain bailing his buddy out [Graham] one more time rather than having the bill defeated in a bigger humiliation. They do strange deals behind the scene. Nothing is ever that simple with those politicians.
Just watched the episode of Burns’ Vietnam War where McCain is interviewed in the Hanoi Hilton hospital after capture, truly just the beginning of his suffering. He says to tell his wife he loves her….and then you remember how he dumped her after he got back and saw the former swimsuit model a disfigured shell of her former self. Really tough guy to fully admire or like.
Yeah, rammed through by having a year of hearings and testimony and accepting Republican amendments.
He couldn’t just stop with his non-partisan pro-democracy statement. Had to make an uncalled for, untrue and purely partisan remark.
Heller, Caputo, and Portman. McCain may have opened the floodgates to more defections. In doing so publicly he allows senators to privately tell McConnell not to hold a vote at all so they claim to have been for it without having to actually be on the record. I also think Lamar Alexander is a possible “no.” I think he might be miffed that McConnell closed down his committee’s efforts which seemed to be making some progress.
Alexander isn’t just miffed, I’d think, but anxious to reopen the efforts, which really need to get finished before the Obamacare Open Enrollment starts November 1. McCain may have been referring to this when he said in his statement, “I believe we could do better working together, Republicans and Democrats, and have not yet really tried.”
In this connection Pelosi made a remarkable statement the other day, if you read it fairly closely:
When it’s defeated, not if, and it’s the president she’s expecting to agree to proceeding with what looks like the Murray-Alexander bill, not the Majority Leader. If McCain really has now sunk Graham-Cassidy, that looks pretty prophetic.
This goes back to the meaning of what she and Schumer achieved with Trump over the debt ceiling, essentially running around McConnell. I think McConnell’s power is completely broken now and Pelosi is effectively Prime Minister, the only figure who can create a congressional majority for anything (unfortunately far from everything, but the health care fix would be a big fucking deal).
I would like to think Pelosi had such a role but she has NO power to bring up legislation or even schedule a vote out of committee. She can only be reactive if the White House demands a vote, then get her caucus to vote together; allowing a few Repub from the sane parts of the country to vote with her. Ryan and his leadership is not going to sit still for that neutering.
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Nevertheless it just happened, with the Harvey relief/debt ceiling/continuing resolution. Obviously not technically–she can’t introduce the legislation–but she and Schumer made the deal with Trump, and Ryan and McConnell will send it to the floor though they were against it. Nobody’s going to admit that the rules have changed, but they have started working in unprecedented ways.
Sorry, have sent it to the floor, where it passed the House 316-90 (all dissenting votes were Republican) on September 8 and Trump signed it the same day.
Re: Capito-
WV is one of the states that benefited the most from ACA. Thousands of citizens actually got to see a doctor for conditions that they would have ignored due to economic constraints. Knowing that, she is willing to flirt with tossing those people under the bus for GOP unity. Of course, learning politics at her Daddy’s knee (Arch -cash in the desk drawer- Moore), she would willingly sell the state out for the right amount.
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So was Kentucky, eh?
Ky created a very successful program called Kynect. But the Democrats, so afraid to even breathe name ACA or Obamacare, didn’t associate Kynect with ACE. So when even harder right officials were elected in KY, they began to dismantle Kynect.
http://www.newsweek.com/obamacare-donald-trump-kentucky-affordable-care-act-barack-obama-595916
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But the moral of the story is not that Democrats were afraid to say ACA, but that Kentucky voters are the dumbest voters in America.
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Well, it is Ky.
The whiskey is good, though.
That might explain everything.
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Well, that and the meth.
Do keep up —
Your point? Nothing in your link effectively counters my snark and a minimal search of the internet machine reveals both opioids and meth are doing a fine job of killing Kentuckians.
As the subject is people in KY that vote for McConnell:
Whiter and wealthier people vote. Not that meth is absent from politics: Newly elected West Virginia sheriff arrested for stealing meth from evidence locker
Actually, the subject was NOT people in KY that vote for McConnell.
But I understand you being confused about the subject.
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They don’t call them Pillbilies for nothing.
And I know, I deal with them daily.
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These folks keep electing lyin’ McConnell who keeps screwing them over so I can only conclude you are right.
re:
Not saying this is false, nor do I have evidence to refute it. Just skeptical.
What’s not in any doubt is that McConnell blatantly, brazenly lied to his constituents that kynect was NOT Obamacare!
I begged then candidate Tenent (Democrat running against Capito for Senate seat) to push the ACA. Get real people in commercials about how they saw a doctor for the first time for years. How it saved the life of their Uncle, brother, neighbor…etc..
She just looked me. Couldn’t fathom the idea. Same in KY. Consultants at work there. Oh well, No guts, no glory.
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governor, without any state legislation required (i.e., by state equivalent of “executive order”, which he apparently had the legal authority to do since it held up.
Did he try to hide the fact that kynect was Obamacare in KY (as McConnell obviously did, by baldly lying, when it helped many people and proved popular)? Did other KY Dems? I’d be surprised, but I don’t really know.
And I said it was a stupid plan at the time too.
If McConnell chooses to pull the bill, that would give the GOP more time to try to ram through their longed-for tax cuts, wouldn’t it?
Not significantly. Per their current plan, the tax cuts go on next year’s reconciliation, meaning they have a deadline of Sept 30, 2018. A few more days of floor time now doesn’t make much difference, especially since they haven’t really even started the negotiations and don’t have any bill to put forward.
Thanks for the clarification. Even with Booman’s clear and detailed explanations of what’s going on, it’s such a tangled web I have trouble following all the strands.
Wasn’t the plan to use the “savings” from repealing the ACA to make the tax cuts revenue neutral and escape the 10-year sunset requirement if they’re not?
Yes.
The one saving grace of this endless Obamacare repeal effort is that they can’t even start negotiating the tax deform bill while Obamacare is up in the air. They don’t know how much money they have to distribute.
If they continue trying to repeal Obamacare after Sept 30 they may not be able to put together any kind of tax deform bill – and maybe not even an upper income tax cut. That could be the underlying reason McCain would want to cut the legs out from under Obamacare repeal. He and his wife are very wealthy and they probably don’t want to risk their personal tax cuts to endless Republican infighting.
. . . the best, most-accurate, mocking descriptor I’ve seen yet for GOP efforts to bend us over and give it to us hard. I.e., yet again, “tax cuts for me, just cuts for thee”.
I do feel some urge to give McCain credit for (or at least wonder if . . . ) acting decently since suddenly confronted by his own mortality, more likely sooner than he’d previously imagined. I recognize the possibility I’m being far too generous, though.
I can’t claim any credit for “deform”. I got it from somebody else years ago – I can’t remember who. I think it was here, actually, so thanks to – whoever!
From what I understand, they’re just going to say they’re revenue neutral thanks to supply side magic and ignore anything else in the future, changing procedure to fit.
I’ve emailed Murkowski and Portman. I hope McCain is telling the truth about voting “no”. If it fails, I’ll send thank-you messages to all of them. Especially Sherrod Brown, who works like a dog.
I also posted a thank-you on Jimmy Kimmel’s Facebook page, because he may have educated Americans about the dreadul health care bill that Graham tried to run through, and he basically told Cassidy to go to hell.
Ask for something, say please, and say thank you when it’s done.
Kimmel was wonderful. It was such a pleasure watching all those Republican “populists” saying, in essence, “Don’t listen to him, he’s not a Washington elite!”
The Seacoast Resistance spans both Maine and NH – and Collins isn’t quite a no yet – so still work to do. Personally, though I think it is entirely possible that the only bill Collins would ever support on HCR was one she personally wrote.
It must be said that the attacks on Kimmel have been wonderful to watch. The National Review had an editorial saying Kimmel should leave HCR to the experts – and this provoked a torrent of replies pointing out that a reality TV start was President. I have little doubt Kimmel knows more than Trump about HCR.
Could this be one of those “I cannot support the bill in its current state” gambits, to get earmarks added or whatever?
Apologies if I’m missing the point in some super-obvious way.
His “no” is based not on the content, but on how hideously awful the process for the bill has been. The complaints are detailed and very legitimate – regardless of the content, it’s just inexcusable to shove through such an important bill through like this with no hearings, no amendments, and no CBO score. He’ll look very hypocritical if he flips now.
If he’d been angling for concessions, I think he’d have framed his opposition differently.
I get that we can never trust Republican moderates, but he couldn’t have said “no” more convincingly.
Thanks. I suspected that was the case but I didn’t trust my reaction (I thought it could just be wishful thinking).
I’ll keep making my calls until that damned monstrosity is pulled or defeated. The end of the month cannot happen soon enough. Having to mobilize every few weeks or months, clearing time in a packed schedule, and stressing out the whole time gets to be a bit much. To take a line from the fictional character Roger Murtaugh, “I’m getting too old for this shit.” And then I think about the stakes and get back in the proverbial trenches as best I can.
The one “bright” spot in having Cornyn and Cruz for your senators, is knowing they don’t give a damn what anyone not named Koch thinks. Saves a fair amount of time. I get to concentrate on McCaul, my lame “representative”.
I suppose the thing that keeps me calling my useless senators is that my state is one of the red states that did Medicaid expansion. They know darned well that their constituents will suffer and that the bill would blow one heck of a hole in the state’s budget – and our idiot of a governor would not have a clue about what to do to fix any of that. If I were in Texas, I probably wouldn’t bother either.
Rather than good news, I’ll call it a good sign, because even these so-called “moderates” have shown an ability to take one for the team and fall in line, even if it means falling on a sword. And there will be a sword for many of them to fall on if this passes.
The real deadline for the GOP is November 2018. If they can’t get this monstrosity passed this time, they’ll try again, and again, and again.
On the why McCain now question, we know McConnell won’t schedule a vote if he’s not fairly certain he has the votes. Is this move timed for some reason to stop the vote from taking place?
There might be something to that- if McConnell abandons the bill based on McCain’s opposition it lets people like Collins off the hook. This vote was poison for her chances at the governorship either way she voted.
anegadagino up top thinks something similar, and it looks good to me.
Let’s most of them off the hook. Gardner is in tight with the Koch Bros, but Coloradoans are telling him loudly and clearly they want to improve Obamacare, not eviscerate it. Right now he’s using the same dodge he did before. Claims he’s not sure and needs to study it. If it doesn’t come to a vote, he won’t have a yes vote on the record.
It lets him off the hook for voting for it. But, he would have voted for it. He’s not a Colorado Senator, he’s the Senator of Koch.
But, I still think he’s toast. The GOP is now a rotting carcass broiling in the desert sun. The sclerotic base will revolt at this failure to get anything done.
Now, Trump COULD move forward in January on a bi-partisan bill to shore up Obamacare. His base won’t really care – they only care about immigrant bashing. (Colorado IS the home of infamous bigot former Congressman Tom Tancredo).
But, they also HATE compromise with Democrats. So, while the mainstream press loves them some bi-partisanship, the Tea Party base HATES it with a passion. Lib-ruls are their enemies and they want constant trolling and bashing and juvenile in your face insults. In short, they love everyone to behave towards their enemies (the entire rest of the planet except other Real Merkins)like WWE wrestlers.
He is also head of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, so sucking up to mega donors is part of the job. Not going to help him in his home state. Hopefully memories will last until re-election time rolls around and the Democrats can offer a viable candidate to oppose him.
There are reports that McCain had been in close contact with Murkowski. It may be McCain thought that by killing the bill early he was shielding her.
I bet we see a bunch more defections now. That’s what happened in July after Jerry Moran made his surprise opposition statement.
Also, I’m starting to wonder if Rand Paul may be savvier than I give him credit for. I think he might know that the GOP is screwed if they don’t repeal the ACA, but screwed even worse if they pass a bill like this. But at the same time, he doesn’t want to tee up a primary challenge for himself. So he expresses his opposition from the right flank, thereby saving both his party and his reputation. Pretty slick, actually.
. . . Aqua Buddha?
It’s pretty clear that Rand is playing the role of sin eater.
I’d really like to admire McCain for his stand at this point, but seriously, death bed conversions don’t mean dick.
This is bargaining with God at the end. Literally. He’s Southern Baptist. It’s what they do.
As a southern baptist… not always!
You’re from MN, that makes you practically Canadian. You don’t have the DNA to bargain with God. Women didn’t also, for the most part.
I was a SB lay minister in TN and southern MO. I’ll stand by my comment as it applies to men.
As a lapsed Catholic, I hope not.
Rand Paul can’t be trusted to provide the third vote it unless there is an actual poison pill in there. If they allowed any state carve outs, I’m pretty confident that he would vote “no” even if he was the third vote. I can also see Freedom Caucus members being a problem in the House should it have made it there.
Thanks for your coverage when math changes. Matt Fuller is a must-follow.
It ain’t over until it’s over. You can believe there are all kinds of corrupt shit going on behind the scenes.
Andy Slavitt sounds a warning:
This is not over. Keep vigilant.
Exactly. This is why I don’t trust the McCain statement. Everyone let down their guard because they thought the circus left town.
All I can say is keep the pressure on the Senators. One lesson we can learn from zombie films is that a zombie is never dead until the head or brain has been destroyed. We’re clearly not to that point yet with the latest zombie Trumpcare bill. McCain’s no gave us some time to take a deep breath. That was all.
Now Ted Cruz is saying he’s a likely no; as with Rand Paul, it seems the bill isn’t cruel enough.
For a little while, there was chatter that Aqua Buddha was negotiating with Graham & Cassidy in an attempt to find something crueler that would get him on board. Then the chatter sort of stopped (for now). Every once in a while my fandom for zombie films comes in handy: a zombie is not dead until its head is destroyed. Also, the zombie apocalypse is not over until all zombies have been dealt with. Right now, things seem a bit apocalypsy (okay – I’m also a Buffy the Vampire Slayer fan, and that did not help my command of the English lexicon) at the moment.