Happy Friday!!
Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., on Friday said he “cannot in good conscience vote for the Graham Cassidy proposal.
McCain is one of four Republican senators who have been undecided on the GOP healthcare overhaul, and his opposition dealt the bill’s chances a significant blow.
Also on Friday, Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, said she is leaning toward voting NO on Graham Cassidy. Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul has already expressed his his opposition to the bill, which he said didn’t fully repeal the Affordable Care Act.
At this point the only hope the GOP has left is to flip Paul – which I doubt is possible.
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/22/senator-john-mccain-says-he-cannot-support-graham-cassidy-obamacare-
repeal-bill.html
And so the tide may have turned yet again:
yep. it’s happening pic.twitter.com/WTmKw90AHK
— Sam Stein (@samstein) September 24, 2017
So if they get Paul, then the remaining vote is Murkowski .
I think we are back to 50-50 given Paul’s statement this morning.
With three certain or likely no votes already, one wonders which way Murkowski will go.
There is reason for cautious optimism. I won’t let up on my Senators, even if I know they are useless simply because they need those stern reminders that there are real living breathing human beings who would get hurt. I’ve hit them every way I can – phone calls, emails, and so on. Going to DC to any organized actions is regrettably out of the question due to the fact that taking work days off right now is not doable (there are some other real living breathing human beings counting on me to do the work I promised them, and I won’t let them down either). Whatever I can do realistically I am doing and will do. On that you can depend.
Note also that the first public opinion poll on Graham-Cassidy also came out today – 24% approval. When I had an earlier break, I looked at the cross-tabs. A preponderance of Trump voters support it (47%). Otherwise, support is next to non-existent, including with those who supported Gary Johnson, the Libertarian, last year. Appears that Democrats and independents (broadly defined) are overwhelmingly against it. Beyond that, the studies I’ve been able to read examining the likely fallout from its passage (necessary since we won’t have a full CBO score for a few weeks) have been consistently awful – I think we can now safely triangulate around about 15 to 18 million would lose coverage first year and somewhere in the neighborhood of about 21 million by 2026, and then a lot worse depending on what happens once the block grants ran out. This is scary stuff. So yes let’s keep hammering away. I understand Murkowski’s staff has been accepting out of state calls. If true, worth calling her office as well. There’s a fair chance we’ll beat this, but not without another big push. And then we need to be ready to mobilize again if this bit of ugliness continues to rear its head – if we luck out the rest of this session, we need to on guard come the session starting 2019. But first things first – get through the rest of this month.
McCain’s revenge.
McCain, Murkowski, and Paul don’t have to face the voters again until 2022. 2020 for Collins, but she wins with such huge margins that she would be really tough to beat. Suspect some coordination among these four.
The battle is likely won but the war is not over yet. I’m confident that they will have another bill next time rules allow, and again and again. And if after 2018, they might pick up a senator or two too. Its also really about ending Medicaid as we know it, and not just repealing ACA.
Yes. And then on to killing Medicare and SSI.
Sort of like the anti-abortion movement was also really about overturning Griswold v. CT and killing the ERA. On the latter they did succeed and those under the age of sixty have no idea what what was lost. Not so many even today get what the repeal of Glass-Steagall did to all but the upper 10%.
We will probably lose in the end.
They are only 1 vote short, and they will probably pick that up next year.
But you never know.
Using the standard Dem Party playbook, you will lose. It reminds me of what happened with the ERA. Not how it came into being but what happened after it first came close to being ratified. The activism/movement became sclerotic. Just like the Dem Party is on practically everything today. All defense, all the time. That’s not a winning strategy for big things.
The LGBT community reminded us of how to succeed and they borrowed from the mid-twentieth century civil rights movement and the later feminist movement. But didn’t lapse into defensiveness and hopelessness before completing the mega-task. They began the fight at the local level with domestic partnership benefits. Presenting the argument to elected officials and the public at large. Expanded to marriage and presented in a lawsuit — Baehr v. Miike A win but the homophobes struck back by passing DOMA and a raft of state laws and propositions, the latter ongoing for two decades.
Meanwhile, the equality advocates didn’t stop engaging in persuasion with the general public, legislatures, and the courts. The hurdles were huge but gains were made. VT — court ruling on same sex adoption (1993) and legislature reformed state law in accordance with the ruling (1995). Baker v. Vermont (12/99). Legislature complied sort of.
CA – Domestic Partnership Act (1999). Expanded in 2001.
2003 — I recall self-identified liberal/Democratic bloggers claim that Dean was unelectable because — horrors — he’d signed a civil unions law.
2003 – Lawrence v. TX (2003) (A very important biggie.)
Feb-Mar 2004 – San Francisco, Mayor Newsom directed the city clerk to issue same sex marriage licenses. It advanced public awareness of the issue even if in the short run the courts invalidated the licenses.
May 2004 – MA – Goodridege v. Department of Public Health A huge win.
At that point it was clear that this would ultimately be settled by SCOTUS, but to get there, more people had to be persuaded — both the general public and elected officials — and more lawsuits had to be filed as situations changed and such cases materialized. CA Prop 8 (Hate) didn’t pass until 2008. Edith Windsor’s lawsuit didn’t exist before her partner died in 2009.
The ACA argument was always too weak to persuade a solid majority. In part because it gave away too much to insurers and big pharma and gave too little to nothing to the majority. (Totally stupid politically was packaging it with minor Medicare cuts to help pay for it.) Also stupid to give states the option of concocting a version that allowed the product not to be seen as ACA. (KYNECT is one example.)
Who is playing offense right now is the most respected politician in the country, Bernie. (What is the nominal head of the Democratic Party doing? Whining about losing to Donald freaking Trump and blaming Bernie and Russia-Putin.) His “let’s go for the whole enchilada” is not resting and fretting defensively on the laurels Democrats want from the deeply flawed ACA. As usual, he’s doing it legislatively, but his 2016 primary run gave him the stature to take it to the public at large. And he’s the one that’s scaring DC Democrats and Republicans. If the DC GOP manages to repeal the ACA, it will be like Prop 8. A short lived victory. And the gains on the other side will be larger than what they destroyed.
You write:
Damned right he is!!!
Why?
Because they are DemocRatpublicans, that’s why.
The New Center
NeoCentrists
He scares them more than does Trump.
Why?
How?
Because Trump can be bought off and/or possibly frightened off.
Bernie?
I don’t think so.
AG
Politico – Tony Blair Says the Left Has Lost Its Way
If it doesn’t sell in the UK (as his anti-Corbyn rants didn’t), he cross the pond to sell it to American rubes.
And not content to be known as Bush’s poodle, he’s sidling up to Trump:
A ME peace settlement wouldn’t be in the best interests of Blair’s pocketbook. All he has going for himself now that the following has taken root in the UK:
Sure wish former US presidents were treated to the same and appropriate disdain.
Collins now a no.
ACA 2009 Senate vote. Collins stuck with McConnell, but neither her nor Snowe’s votes were needed to pass it.
Does that suggest that Murkowski has Collins’ back in the event that Paul does a switcheroo?