I don’t understand Richard Cohen’s argument. Actually, I think the problem is that he doesn’t understand it. He seems to be saying three things. The first is that impeaching Trump for anything less than a triple-ax murder will cause some kind of simmering, unacceptably dangerous civil disturbance. The second is that Trump is not likely to be convicted even if he is impeached. The third is that he shouldn’t be impeached unless he’s convicted.
To be honest, I’m being generous here by delineating his arguments much more clearly than his opinion piece does. Let’s start with the easiest thing to concede. It’s not likely that a Republican-controlled Congress will impeach the president, let alone convict him and toss him out of office. I think we can all accept that.
But the next bit is that even trying to do this would lead to violence, so we should be careful what we wish for.
In one scenario, a majority of the House impeaches the president but fails to convince two-thirds of the Senate to convict him. While there might be some disturbance during the House and Senate’s deliberations, if Trump were ultimately acquitted then there wouldn’t be any more reason for lasting unrest than when Bill Clinton was acquitted.
In another scenario, a majority of the House impeaches the president and does convince two-thirds of the Senate to convict him. That would mean that at least 24 Republican members of the House and 19 Republican senators voted to remove Trump from office. Under those circumstances, we can anticipate that the evidence would be overwhelming. In that case, there are two problems with Cohen’s argument. First, does he really think there would be a sustained violent backlash if the face of evidence so overwhelming that it caused the Republicans to remove their own president? And second, what use is the impeachment clause if a president can’t be removed, for fear of civil unrest, even in the face of clear evidence of criminality?
If the Democrats controlled the process, it’s much easier to see how things could get ugly even with the same basic set of facts. But the Democrats don’t currently control the process.
Mind you, the headline to Cohen’s piece is: We would impeach Trump at our peril.
Now, I’ve called Richard Cohen the the single worst columnist in America today. I’ve said that “his desire to suck up to power is so great that he’ll leap to the defense of anyone powerful who is questioned too hard about their honesty or rectitude.” I believe these things are still true.
For my part, I’d argue that we let Donald Trump handle our foreign policy toward North Korea at our peril. I think I have the stronger argument when it comes to trying to save our mortal asses. But that’s not really the point here.
The point is that even on his own terms, what Cohen is saying doesn’t make much sense.
The problem begins with tackling the issue without addressing whether Trump ought to be impeached. He gives us a bunch of reasons why that might turn out to be the case, but not in the service of deciding whether people should go ahead and do it.
Trump is a dust storm of lies and diversions with the bellows of a bully and the greasy ethics of a street-corner hustler. The chances of him passing Mueller’s muster are slim. Just for starters, the firing of James B. Comey as FBI director raises questions of obstruction of justice, and the appointments of Paul Manafort as campaign chairman and Michael Flynn as national security adviser emit the Kremlinesque scent of borscht. The possible crimes line up like boxcars being assembled for a freight train. Trump is a one-man docket.
It would seem that a man who is a one-man docket probably shouldn’t remain as our president, but Cohen says it would be too perilous to do anything about it. He also says that nothing will be done about it unless something actually is done about it, in which case we’re all going to die.
Obviously, we don’t know what Bob Mueller is going to do or what kind of evidence he is going to find. But my question for Cohen is to ask what he thinks our lawmakers ought to do if Mueller produces overwhelming evidence of criminality that leads even a Republican Congress to want to impeach and convict the president. Should they let it go out of fear that some Trump supporters will react with violence?
And if he doesn’t believe this, then why did he write this stupid column?
No argument about Cohen being a wanker and his column being incoherent. But gotta disagree with you here:
Do you really think that the sort of folks who marched in Charlotte, and their thought leaders at Breitbart and InfoWars, would let mere facts and evidence get in the way of their grievances? Don’t you think they’d declare the impeachment/conviction to be a coup perpetrated by the “Deep State”?
Mind you: I am not saying this is reason to shy away from trying to impeach Trump–given a choice of facing the internal dead-enders or Korean nukes, I’ll take the internal revolt; but you give the dead-enders far too much credit for reality-based thinking.
Thats what I came here to say. If Breitbart and Fox wanted it to be, yes absolutely. I suppose the answer to the second is how successful it would be. A significant part of the army and police are Trumpists. If civil conflict here results in loose nukes might well be just as bad.
Agree re: Richard Cohen. The man’s an idiot.
But I don’t see this as going straight from Zero to Impeachment. The first strike will likely to indicting Manafort and Flynn. Will the nuts riot for Manafort or Flynn? Nah.
There will at some point be public hearings where evidence against the Trump Crime Family will be exposed. Will they riot then? Nah. Too soon.
Somewhere in the process I expect Jared to be indicted for money-laundering, collusion, obstruction etc… Will they riot for Jared? Nah. How about Ivanka? Nope.
By that time there will be a mountain of evidence. And Trump will have failed on Repeal and Replace, on the wall and likely on tax reform.
Mitch and Paul may then go to Trump and explain that they have the votes to impeach and remove. Trump isn’t tough. Trump caves when the jig is up, declares bankruptcy and moves on. I still think his best move is to pardon everyone including himself, resign and go spend some quality time in a country without extradition laws. Will the Nazis riot then? Trump will certainly try to get them to, but I suspect by then the air will have leaked out of the orange balloon.
So the slowness of this investigation might work to our advantage? Certainly a possibility. Americans are easily bored.
Impeachment and imprisonment?
Felix Sater, Trump’s partner in the Trump Soho project (apparently financed thru mysterious Iceland investment funds traced to Russia) has been rumored to say that he expects both he and Trump to go to prison. And Sater’s already a convicted felon.
Then there’s the mystery of Pence (Indiana’s obscure failed governor) promoted on to the ticket as VP by, wait for it, Paul Manafort, whose name you may have seen in the news recently in connection with Mr. Mueller. God knows where any of this is going to end up as Mueller turns over more rocks or what it will mean for 2020.
“In another scenario, a majority of the House impeaches the president and does convince two-thirds of the Senate to convict him. That would mean that at least 24 Republican members of the House and 19 Republican senators voted to remove Trump from office.”
Actually, when you put it that way, I’d say serious backlash is very likely.
I thought Cohen had left (or been pushed off) the WaPo Op/Ed page because I hadn’t seen one of his columns in a really long time but, unfortunately, he’s back. However, in addition to the arguments of his that you mentioned, he also said that he thought the evidence that Mueller would produce would not be as strong as the Nixon tapes. I thought this argument was especially specious. Does Cohen have an inside track to Mueller’s evidence? Of course not. And when we think of the changes in communication technology alone over the last 45 years, the amount of potentially admissible evidence would seem to far greater than Watergate’s. Also, since this is an international incident, we’re also talking about treason, which I think is actually more explosive than Nixon’s political ratfcking. Of course, whether the proof will still be enough to score an impeach and convict Trump from a GOP Congress that defines “rule of law” as what will benefit me or screw my enemies is another story.
Well this AM I posted that we can expect a rash of GOP resignations as a result of the Senate’s failure to repeal Obamacare or pass any of their agenda, and now Bob Corker is leaving the Senate instead of running in 2018. And that is only the first domino.
So, Cohen’s post is wildly stupid from even the most practical angle. If several more GOP Senators and a bunch of GOP Congressmen jump ship rather than stand for re-election, we could be facing a very different Congressional map in 2019 heading into the Presidential campaign of 2020.
Personally, I’ve always thought that keeping Trump in office is beneficial. He’s horrible, and dangerous, but it is the height of delusion to think that Mike Pence would be any different – except that he wouldn’t spend all his time on Twitter. Pence is a maniac who would never get within a million miles of political power in any decent country. The USA right now is in the midst of a right wing melt down since they have finally figured out that the US is becoming a majority minority country within about 25 years. And they hate and want to reverse that. Only that’s impossible.
So, the possibility that we’ll be stuck with Trump until 2020 bothers me a lot less than the notion that Trump will WIN re-election, because lots of people will conclude that “he’s not so bad” because “reasons.” We saw his polling go up the minute he was forced to reach out to Democrats! The bi-partisan insanity is deep inside portions of the Democratic party, and they are dumber than a large bag of rocks.
Patty Murray cutting a deal with Trump worries me a lot more than the shifting calculus of impeachment.
I’ve always thought the sort of person who’s a Trumper thinks those Andy Rooney movies of the 30’s and 40’s with happy Protestant white people in a small Midwestern town are historical documents showing the way it’s supposed to be.
The fact these were produced by very canny Jewish Hollywood execs who knew their market completely escapes them.
Rubes never realize they are rubes.
Richard Cohen is basically Bill Kristol with a beard, a lower IQ, and a reputation for sexual harassment. He’s fucking dumb as dirt, and desrved nothing but scorn and derision.
I disagree with the premise “…of the day”.
Warning, this will sound like a medieval, theological discussion regarding how many angels can dance on the head of a pin.
The reason I disagree is that in the Wanker HOF, Cohen’s in the inaugural class, therefore by definition he’s a wanker of the day, no need to highlight the inherent wankerness of the man.
The question about who’s in the Wanker HOF always involves eligibility. I mean by definition right wing pundits like Bill Fucking Kritol, George Fucking Will, David Fucking Brooks and so on are wankers.
Actually, it’s easier to say of the corporate pundit class who’s not in the Wanker HOF since damn near all of em, print and broadcast, suck to high heaven.
Sounds like a threat to me. It is not the GOP that will decide if the donald gets impeached. It will be determined by how many bridges he burns between now and when it’s time for congress to vote.
{Ahem} Explain to me again, how it could be, if our POTUS is shown by Mueller’s investigation to be, beyond a reasonable doubt, a brutal felon and agent of a foreign power, our House and Senate could decline to act and then could be so cocksure that those of us not on the extreme right will just continue to sip tea from bone china with our pinkies out and do nothing?
Republican politicians wouldn’t actually fight for the country. They have no idea that so many of us would. Or that we’re armed.
Yes, there’s this delusional myth that only right wingers know how to use guns and violence,
I suspect that much of their gun fetish thing is something to with penis compensation metaphors or something of the sort.
When the MSM slides into the bog it’s destined for, the obituary will mention The NY Times political coverage, Thomas Friedman, the Washington Post editorial page, and Richard Cohen.
So Cohen’s argument, from what I can surmise, is to engage in nervous hand wringing, and if that does not work, crawl into a corner and get into fetal position – after all there is nothing to be done. The Big Bad is just too powerful. I just love it when pundits are so fatalistic.
Dems flip another special election state legislative seat – this time in a NH district that tilts heavily GOP. The trend of Democratic candidates outperforming Trump last year and/or historical precedent has continued unabated for some time now, and it is producing at those levels where a bench can be developed. Special election results are of course ones that are best interpreted with some caution, but that said, there does appear to be a trend developing. We’ll see how this all plays out later this year in Virginia and NJ when they have their major elections. Right now, I’d say there is some reason for optimism but definitely not complacency. In fact it is likely the lack of complacency that is making these victories possible.
And a Dem pickup in a previously GOP held state Sen. seat in Florida should be added to the list. I’m nowhere near comfortable with discussing a Blue wave just yet, but I am becoming cautiously optimistic.