The president may be simmering that Steve Bannon got the better of him in the Alabama special election, but let’s not forget that not too long ago Bannon was in a much more powerful position at the president’s right hand, and that he had big dreams.
Moreover, some close Trump advisers see infrastructure as a way to pull Democratic voters, including some minorities, into a new political coalition that will remake the Republican Party and keep it in power for decades. “With negative interest rates throughout the world, it’s the greatest opportunity to rebuild everything,” Trump campaign CEO and now chief White House strategist Steve Bannon told the Hollywood Reporter soon after the elections. “Shipyards, ironworks, get them all jacked up. We’re just going to throw it up against the wall and see if it sticks. It will be as exciting as the 1930s, greater than the Reagan revolution—conservatives, plus populists, in an economic nationalist movement.”
But those grandiose plans haven’t yet come to fruition, and after Bannon was shown the door in August, he said that his dreams were as dead as his brief White House career:
Former White House chief strategist Stephen Bannon is declaring the impact of the Trump presidency “over.”
“The Trump presidency that we fought for, and won, is over,” he told the Weekly Standard on Friday. “We still have a huge movement, and we will make something of this Trump presidency. But that presidency is over.”
It was never quite clear how well Bannon’s vision of a massive 1930’s-style infrastructure mobilization jibed with the plan the Trump team floated in December during the transition. The money was right. Trump was talking about a trillion dollar bill, which won instant praise from Chuck Schumer. It was a lot more money than Trump had promised in September on the campaign trail, and nearly four times as large as Hillary Clinton’s $275 billion proposal. On the other hand, Paul Ryan had laughed the much smaller September number straight out of town.
House Speaker Paul Ryan burst into laughter and repeatedly tapped the arm of his chair when asked in September if he would help a President Trump pass an infrastructure plan costing $550 billion or more.
“That’s not in the ‘Better Way’ agenda,” the Wisconsin Republican said, referring to his conservative agenda for the House.
The early signs were that the Trump administration would be looking for a lot of Democratic votes:
Trump’s influential son-in-law, Jared Kushner, told business leaders at a breakfast last week in Manhattan that Trump is closer to Schumer than to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) when it comes to infrastructure spending.
McConnell told reporters at a news conference earlier [in December] that “it will be interesting to see how” Trump’s infrastructure plan is put together.
“I hope we avoid a trillion-dollar stimulus,” he said.
Yet, the Democrats were highly critical of the basic concept of the infrastructure proposals. In The Nation, Michelle Chen called Trump’s plan “a full-on privatization assault.”
Trump wants private investors to basically direct $1 trillion in infrastructure projects nationwide through a “revenue neutral” financing plan, which banks on financing from private investors, allegedly to control deficit spending (which the GOP generally deems wasteful, while promoting tax breaks as a wiser redistribution of public funds into corporate coffers). To draw some $167 billion to jumpstart the $1 trillion, 10-year infrastructure plan, Washington would grant a giant tax break “equal to 82 percent of the equity amount.” The goal isn’t fixing bridges so much as fixing the corporate tax codes to promote privatization and unregulated construction with virtually no public input.
The basic concept of the plan was spelled out in a paper authored by Wilbur Ross (now the Secretary of Commerce) and UC-Irvine Professor Peter Navarro (now Director of the White House National Trade Council), which was released on October 27th. The facts and figures in that paper were used by Chen in her critique. They also informed a critique we published by Christopher B. Leinberger in our March/April/May 2017 issue called The Thinking Person’s Guide to Infrastructure. By the time that article went to press, more details had come out both in the December announcement and in a speech Trump delivered in February.
In the feature piece, Leinberger noted that Trump would need Democratic help and made the case against gargantuan and indiscriminate building projects based on huge tax incentives to private developers.
Trump will almost certainly need large numbers of Democratic votes to pass any substantive infrastructure bill. That means Democrats will likely have significant leverage in determining the shape of such a bill.
What should Democrats demand in return for their support? For one thing, that Trump drop the idea his advisers floated in December for $85 billion in new tax credits for infrastructure investors. The private sector must be involved in America’s infrastructure build-out, but tax credits are a very expensive way of making that happen. Tax credits attract private investors and corporations needing high rates of return to offset their tax liabilities—returns in the range of 18 to 35 percent annually. But infrastructure investments don’t typically produce those kinds of high returns unless the risks are somehow shifted onto others, typically taxpayers. With interest rates at 3 percent, it’s much cheaper and less risky to the public for the federal government to simply borrow the money and have it paid back by local sources, both public and private.
The Trump administration has taken no procedural steps on infrastructure to get around a Democratic filibuster, so they know with certainty that they’ll need eight Democratic senators, at least, to pass a bill. And that’s probably why Trump unexpectedly trashed his original plan this week:
President Trump told lawmakers this week that he was abandoning a key element of his planned $1 trillion infrastructure package, complaining that certain partnerships between the private sector and federal government simply don’t work…
…The president acknowledged the new approach during a Tuesday meeting with Democrats from the House Ways and Means Committee, who came to the White House to discuss the administration’s tax code rewrite set to be unveiled Wednesday,
During the meeting, Trump “emphatically rejected what everybody assumed was his position relative to financing infrastructure,” said Rep. Brian Higgins (D-N.Y.), who attended and asked Trump about the proposal. “He dismissed it categorically and said it doesn’t work.”
If the administration is scrapping the Heritage Foundation‘s neoliberal wet dream for infrastructure in an effort to win Democratic votes, it’s probably a good time to go back and read Leinberger’s piece because he has a lot more to say than just what the Democrats should reject. And he might not disagree with the White House’s new view that “wants to force states and localities to foot most of the bill.” That all depends on the details.
Leinberger doesn’t think we should repeat the stimulus pattern of 2009 by opening “the federal funding spigot and spraying infrastructure dollars haphazardly.” Instead, we should focus on meeting the growing demand for more walkable communities. We can do that partly by changing the current system under which suburban sprawl-friendly highway projects get much larger matching federal funds. We can also take a lot of the decision-making power out of where it is now, in Washington and the states’ capitals, and give it to “municipal governments, metropolitan-wide entities, and local governance organizations.” In return, “Washington should insist that localities have skin in the infrastructure game—that is, that they find local sources for the funds needed to maintain the infrastructure and service the debt that federal grants and loans make possible.” Leinberger argues that federal loan repayment could come in the form of “pledged sales or property tax increases, or as a percentage of the increased value of adjacent real estate, paid for by private-sector developers.”
The last idea is nearly the opposite of the original Trump plan. Instead of giving developers a giant tax cut to incentivize them to build, we should ask them to give us a cut of the increased property value they get when, say, a brand new rail station is built near their holdings.
It’s an innovative idea that falls between the privatization of public infrastructure plan originally floated by the Ross and Navarro, and the kind of demands the Democrats are making to “pay for infrastructure upgrades through direct federal spending — either by paying for projects with new tax revenue or by taking on debt.”
Remember, the Trump administration may need Democratic votes, but they need Republican votes, too. And they’re not going to get a lot of Republican votes for classic firehose stimulus spending on shovel-ready projects. Even this tradeoff may not be good enough. For example, the Republicans may like the sound of local control, but it doesn’t seem as good when that local control moves from the state capitol to the big city or inner suburb. Still, the idea offers a potential way out of an impasse. Trump wants a win on infrastructure and agrees more with the Democrats about the scope and size. The Republicans want to find a way to say ‘yes’ to the president, but they need talking points to buttress their move away from conservative orthodoxy. And this could be a way to hold down the overall cost and risk without it becoming a massive privatization scheme.
I don’t know if this Republican Congress can ever get to ‘yes,’ on anything, but the Democrats, at least, should be willing to propose something along these lines.
To get a fuller picture, take some time and read The Thinking Person’s Guide to Infrastructure.
I just want to hear Trump say “John Maynard Keynes is an example of somebody who’s done an amazing job and is getting recognized more and more, I notice.”
I have serious doubts that Donald Trump even remembers his original plan. I think we all know that the likely reason he trashed it is that he had just sat through a meeting with Democrats, who essentially told him that those partnerships he touted just would not work as advertised, and with those words still echoing in his head, he opened his mouth in front of the press and out came that Democratic echo. I am sure that as soon as someone within the GOP circle was able to corral him and tell him, “No, privatization is our goal here. Privatization GOOD, compromise with Democrats, BAD”, he instantly pivoted in his mind back to a far right conservative view on the issue.
We are still at a point where the GOP is absolutely not going to work with Democrats on anything. For this to have any chance of working, Trump would have to give the finger to the crazies in his party, and form that coalition with moderate Republicans and the Democrats. And that is still nothing more than a fantasy hypothetical for all of us wonky political types to kick around on blogs. I am not sure that anything is going to have a chance of happening, good or bad, until after the 2018 election cycle.
Since the likelihood of anything actually happening on infrastructure is very low, is all of this just about political optics for the Democrats? I think they can offer plans until the cows come home, but I just don’t see enough Republicans taking the political risk to collaborate with Democrats on an issue of such large scope, which would involve some serious ideological compromises on both sides in order to accomplish. At their core, Republicans don’t want government to succeed, and they have proven they are willing to purposely do things which damage the health and well being of the country, just to keep from giving the appearance of anything but far right conservative purity. That is just not a position that makes for any kind of realistic legislating, as has been so well demonstrated for the last 8 months.
I’m totally sympathetic to the basic premise that Trump is ignorant and impulsive and suggestible and virtually incapable of coherent long-term planning.
But he has advisers and people he talks to from a lot of different walks of life and ideological perspectives.
For example, Bannon wanted a gargantuan infrastructure plan to help him build a right-wing proletarian army. He didn’t give a shit about deficits or privatization plans. A lot of Trump’s advisers right now are Democrats, especially the economic advisers. They tell him he needs Democrats for infrastructure.
Sometimes, yes, he just says whatever pops into his head. Other times, he says whatever his audience at the moment wants to hear. But he doesn’t operate without any direction at all.
We can oversimplify things in both of these areas. We can underestimate how much strategy is coming from the White House and we can also miss the divisions within even the far right that open up possibilities.
Infrastructure is a great example. You begin with the premise that you need eight Democratic senators and you go from there. If they were forced to do that on health care and taxes, the results would be sane. On infrastructure, they have no alternative.
So, Trump was actually talking sanely when he dumped an unworkable proposal in a meeting with Democrats. And if people try to walk him back, others will point out that they’re full of shit.
Since, up to this point, every effort at any large legislative actions have been a massive failure, it is hard, for me at least, to game out exactly how much within the administration is being driven by any sort of “strategy”, and how much is happening simply due to the blowing of chaotic, random political winds. Sometimes the wind blows you toward the bank, or maybe a temporarily calm cove. Other times it blows you toward the rocky shoals. Much like the case of these winds, I have a hard time assigning any actual agency to a lot of what has been happening. That is where I am depending a lot on people like you to help me.
Up to this point, it does not seem like the President stops long enough to consider anything beyond what has been run in front of him within the last 60 minutes. And I am still trying to see some evidence that anyone within his inner circle has his ear more than others. All of this infrastructure stuff is going to require massive amounts of thought and planning, by a whole cadre of very smart people. And it is hard, given the daily chaos that is swirling around everyone in the Trump administration, to envision this kind of massive collective effort; one which will have to be driven and sold from the bully pulpit of the Presidency in order to have any chance of happening. Large scale infrastructure porjects of the type we are considering cannot be managed and directed via a Twitter account. Does this administration even have the collection of brain power necessary to draw up a project of this magnitude? I have my doubts. It all seems to be structured for only one thing, enriching those who are in Trump’s inner circle.
If you’re in Cincinnati and decide to travel by car to Cleveland, there’s certain stuff you’re bound to encounter on the way. And if one bridge is out, you’ll try another route, and that will be somewhat predictable, too. If all the bridges are out, we can say confidently, that you aren’t getting to Cleveland by car. You should have taken a plane.
That’s an analogy for the dual budget reconciliation plan for health care and taxes that I’ve written about so often.
It was a “you can’t there from here” plan.
A lot of the craziness you’ve seen is just chaos arising out of the fact that no one wanted to admit that you can’t currently get to Cleveland from Cincinnati by car. Different routes were tried, but satellite technology could have told them that those routes were blocked, too.
The rest of his agenda won’t have the benefit of this idea that you can use budget reconciliation to bypass the Democrats. They know they need to use air travel for these pieces.
That changes everything, or it should.
For one thing, though, it changes what the destination looks like. Maybe it isn’t far. Maybe they only attempt to get to Columbus, or maybe Dayton.
We’re still dealing with crazy people who have unrealistic goals and bad motives, but we’re a step closer to being in the same universe.
Thanks for the explanation. I certainly hope that a good part of the procedural insanity we have experienced up to this point will be shelved, and maybe we start to see some glimmers of “normality” in the process when it comes to infrastructure. I have to freely admit that my cynicism is high, and my expectations very low. What rational person, in the current climate, would have their default position be anything other than pessimistic? But I will at least keep my eyes peeled for those four leaf clovers which might be buried somewhere in this landscape blanketed in thistle and poison ivy. And if I find one of those four leafed rarities, I will think of you! It is up to you to keep me sane. I know that’s not in your job description, but I’m depending on you, man!
LOVE this analogy.
I’m reminded of that story Reagan used to tell, “There must be a pony in there somewhere!”. You seem to think that in the midst of all this crazy, there’s a rational kernel in there somewhere and once found it can be coaxed into doing some syllogisms or something.
I was hoping this admin could be gamed, too, but now I’m thinking it’s completely irrational and nonlinear at least in our time-space continuum. Maybe if it were just Trump things could be managed with the techniques used to manage malevolent (but in this case, dull) narcissists, but it isn’t just him.
the way I do analysis can be compared to the topography of river systems. There’s a lot of solid ground but it’s all basically irrelevant except for how it channels the water. And water will find a way.
The government may shut down, but it will reopen somehow. We may come very close to defaulting on our debt, but we almost definitely will not. Trump will try to work with budget reconciliation for as long as he can, but eventually he’ll realize he can’t reach the ocean that way.
If Trump takes too long to get it, the system will eject him and Pence will find the ocean.
99% of everything else is partisan posturing, fundraising, ratings, and bullshit.
I’m not sure I agree with this, but I am honest enough to acknowledge that I hate that system enough that it can be clouding my judgment.
ANYTHING Trump touches turns to shit. Whatever is passed in infrastructure repair will instantly turn into a massive government giveaway to KBR, Bechtel, Flour and so forth.
I’m neither an engineer nor economist, but I’ve been wondering why the Dems aren’t pushing an agenda of massive infrastructure for green energy and actual needed infrastucture (walk-able cities and train lines would be a great start). It seems like this could be a win win for leftists and moderates. Not to mention essential to our planet’s future.
We need more platforms where the Dems articulate their vision for what the country could be, not just reacting to the latest Republican disaster.
First we’d need to establish that the Dems even have a vision for what the country could be.
I assume because they are afraid non-urbanites would hear this as “fuck the racist hicks!”
I mean that’s what they hear already so I don’t know if they can go farther down but isn’t that equivalent to giving up in the rural areas and accepting that we are a minority thanks to the way the country’s geographic political divisions were laid down?
I’m sure some of them would hear ‘fuck the racist hicks’– but if it’s well articulated if would be positioned as replacing the jobs like coal and gas that are dying anyhow–
and hopefully would be constructed in rural areas.
As the LGM bog notes, the recent Bernie bill ‘Medicare for all’ is smart messaging and a forward looking position for the Democrats, even though there is zero chance of it passing right now. Climate change is coupled with a massive infrastructure jobs push via green energy could be another leg in the platform.
Oops meant to reply to VidaLoca and MNPundit below. Sorry.
That “Thinking Person’s Guide to Infrastructure” article is really good. The biggest problem with “infrastructure” spending is that it’s mostly highway and road construction, which at this point is a net negative to the economy. It just encourages more sprawl, where the long-term maintenance costs exceed any obtainable tax revenue, without even considering the staggering private costs for automobile to exist there. Much of the rest is trying to cope with the problems created by all this sprawl – such as trying to repair the huge sprawling sewer and water piping systems to serve this massive sprawl. We need smarter infrastructure spending much more than we need more infrastructure spending.
I think it a mistake to view this simply on the merits. Republican obstruction against Obama was very effective at maintaining the attitude among their base that his Presidency was illegitimate. Cooperation with him on anything major undermined that, as it did when they had no choice but to cooperate on the debt ceiling. It cost them dearly with their own base and probably helped shore up Obama among the wavering.
Now the shoe is on the other foot. Democrats basically do not see Trump as legitimate. They see the election as tinkered with by Russia, many see the electoral college as illegitimate anyway, they see Trump as behaving illegally (obstructing justice, violating the emoluments clause) in ways that should lead to his removal from office, and/or they see him as mentally and/or emotionally deficient to hold the office and think he should be removed for that reason. This is all tons more legit than the birth certificate and other nonsense, but it reaches the same end point. Trump is not my President.
A lot of the Democrats don’t really trust the Democratic establishment either. That is largely what Sanders was about.
If the Democrats cooperate with Trump on anything major – unless it is utterly uncontroversial like disaster relief – one or (probably) both of two bad things happen:
These are both disastrous outcomes right now, and the merits of any infrastructure bill are not going to outweigh them. Evaluating the true economic impact of such a bill is complex and ambiguous anyway. I don’t think the Democrats want to sound obstructionist, but actual cooperation with Trump, even on something decent, is very dangerous.
By “merits of any infrastructure bill”, I mean the merits of any that would actually gain Trump’s and significant Republican support – not that there could not theoretically be an infrastructure bill worth the political hit. Possibly there could be, but it won’t be on the table.
Re: Point 2
You’ll notice Trump’s numbers hit low 40s in the aftermath of the debt-ceiling budget cooperation. It’s gone back down to high-30s but it’s still higher than the mid 30s he was in before.
Giant tax cuts for developers, privatization plans: fuck that.
Trump needs the dems more than they need him at this point. I’d be perfectly happy if nothing Trump proposed on infrastructure got passed. He’ll take most of the heat, as he should. If Trump wants help from the dems to pass something, he’d better give them something really good in return for their cooperation.
First question: Does Trump really want an infrastructure spending bill, or is he only looking for more tax cuts for billionaires in the guise of “infrastructure spending?”
In short, if he really just wants to find a creative new way to funnel billions more dollars to corrupt cronies and his own family of corrupt cronies, then he’s not going to have any real interest in anything Democrats would propose.
Second, how will his base feel about doing a deal with the hated Nancy Pelosi on something this big? Their instincts will be all against it. And we know that even when Trump CAN afford to ignore his base, he fears to do it.
Thus the recent spectacle of Trump receiving outlandish praise for not destroying the Country over debt funding, his polling going up, but he then immediately starts ranting about the NFL just to make things up to the base. He didn’t need to do that. They would love him anyway, but he’s insecure. He needs that constant adulation.
It’s not enough that the base will vote for him, they have to constantly affirm their unconditional love. He has to bask in the glow. This will prevent him from doing anything big like you mention Martin.
I think Booman has this right and I don’t think there’s much downside for Trump.
CNN/ORC poll earlier this year:
I’m going to read you some of the proposals expected to be included in Donald Trump’s budget. For each, please tell me whether you approve or disapprove of that proposal.
– Increase spending on infrastructure
Overall approval 79% to 18% disapprove
Lean Republican approval 88% to 10% disapprove
Trump supporter approval 88% to 9% disapprove
If going with the Dems is the only way to get this done – I really don’t think his base is going to care how it gets done has changed. There’s no privatization plan mentioned in the poll question in fact the statement specifically says “increase spending”.
McConnell should be very, very worried with numbers like these.