On January 11th, 2017, right after BuzzFeed published the Steele dossier, reporter Scott Shane of the New York Times published a piece called: What We Know and Don’t Know About the Trump-Russia Dossier. What Mr. Shane already knew was that “in September 2015, a Washington political research firm, Fusion GPS, paid by a wealthy Republican donor who did not like Mr. Trump, began to compile ‘opposition research’ on him.” Additionally, Shane knew the following: “After it became clear that Mr. Trump would be the Republican nominee, Democratic clients who supported Hillary Clinton began to pay Fusion GPS for this same opposition research.”
What the Washington Post is reporting today is that the Democratic client who paid for the Fusion GPS research was Perkins Coie, a law firm that was under contract to both the Hillary Clinton campaign and the Democratic National Committee. Specifically, their lead election attorney, Mark Elias, made arrangements with Fusion GPS in April 2016 to pay for ongoing opposition research after the original Republican client stopped paying for the work. The way the report is written is vague, but the clear implication is that the Clinton campaign and DNC funded the research indirectly by making payments to the Perkins Coie law firm.
Here is how the New York Times is describing this revelation:
The presidential campaign of Hillary Clinton and the Democratic National Committee paid for research that was included in a dossier made public in January that contained salacious claims about connections between Donald J. Trump, his associates and Russia.
A spokesperson for a law firm said on Tuesday that it had hired Washington-based researchers last year to gather damaging information about Mr. Trump on numerous subjects — including possible ties to Russia — on behalf of the Clinton campaign and the D.N.C.
I suppose that there’s a more direct connection here than was suggested by the original reporting that stated only that the work was paid for by “Democratic clients who supported Hillary Clinton.” Functionally, however, I don’t see much of a difference.
First of all, the DNC is obviously Democratic and clearly supported Hillary Clinton, so they were never ruled out by the initial characterization. Secondly, the Clinton campaign was at least one step removed from the dossier in the sense that they authorized a law firm to solicit opposition research but did not have any further or closer connection to Fusion GPS. It’s not at clear that the campaign knew who Christopher Steele was or that he had been retained to look into Trump’s Russian connections, or even that they were privy to what Steele produced.
There’s no evidence beyond what we already knew to suspect that Steele had an incentive to skew his reports. And Steele’s behavior is certainly curious if he thought he was working in close cooperation with the Clinton campaign. For example, when he felt that the information he was providing to Fusion GPS was too explosive to leave to them, he made the decision to contact the FBI:
Steele dutifully filed his first incendiary report with Fusion on June 20, but was this the end of his responsibilities? He knew that what he had unearthed, he’d say in his anonymous conversation with Mother Jones, “was something of huge significance, way above party politics.” Yet was it simply a vanity to think that a retired spy had to take it on his shoulders to save the world? And what about his contractual agreement with Simpson? Could the company sue, he no doubt wondered, if he disseminated information he’d collected on its dime?
In the end, Steele found the rationale that is every whistle-blower’s sustaining philosophy: the greater good trumps all other concerns. And so, even while he kept working his sources in the field and continued to shoot new memos to Simpson, he settled on a plan of covert action.
The F.B.I.’s Eurasian Joint Organized Crime Squad—“Move Over, Mafia,” the bureau’s P.R. machine crowed after the unit had been created—was a particularly gung-ho team with whom Steele had done some heady things in the past. And in the course of their successful collaboration, the hard-driving F.B.I. agents and the former frontline spy evolved into a chummy mutual-admiration society.
It was only natural, then, that when he began mulling whom to turn to, Steele thought about his tough-minded friends on the Eurasian squad. And fortuitously, he discovered, as his scheme took on a solid operational commitment, that one of the agents was now assigned to the bureau office in Rome. By early August, a copy of his first two memos were shared with the F.B.I.’s man in Rome.
“Shock and horror”—that, Steele would say in his anonymous interview, was the bureau’s reaction to the goodies he left on its doorstep. And it wanted copies of all his subsequent reports, the sooner the better.
Why didn’t it occur to him to call up Robby Mook or John Podesta or someone else at the Clinton campaign and give them the information he’d unearthed? Why was he mulling how he could go around his contractual obligations to Fusion GPS if he thought they were hardwired to the Clintons?
I suppose the connection of the DNC and the Clinton campaign to the Fusion GPS contract could have been divulged prior to now, but I can’t really see how it matters that it wasn’t. Sure, the Trump folks will try to milk this revelation for all it’s worth, but I doubt it will impress Robert Mueller. Steele is actually more credible in light of this information, because if he were a political hack he would have been asking why the Clinton campaign wasn’t using his information rather than going to the FBI.
Now, I don’t know who was leaking the dossier to reporters, and at a certain point it’s clear that Steele grew frustrated with the FBI’s lack of action and started pitching his information to folks like David Corn. After the election, he got the dossier to John McCain. This also makes him more credible, because he clearly thought what he had was so alarming that he should continue to disseminate it after the election was over.
What I don’t see here is any evidence that the Clinton campaign directed Steele’s work or that Steele considered the Clinton campaign to be his customer.
The credibility of the dossier, far from being undermined, seems bolstered to me.
quite a bit of difference between paying an American oppo research team for dirt and getting it volunteered by the Russians.
The trumpers will go nutzo, but it’s just more “kill Hill” shit.
Just a distraction to keep people from figuring out what the Republicans are planning to do to retirement savings vehicles.
This whole thing is “Cokie’s Rule” to such a degree that it’s achieved previously-unmatched levels of abstraction.
Is anything in the dossier challenged, or even discussed? Of course not. Is the legitimacy of opposition research in any way weakened or maligned (or, again, even noted in passing)? Of course not.
More important, is the possible effect of these “revelations” — which, as BooMan and Josh Marshall and others have doggedly pointed out over and over, were already known — on either Robert Mueller, the FBI, or on the public, known or predicted or even part of the equation? No.
All that matters is that now there’s this available “counterargument” which “weakens” the case against Trump, apparently for the reason that it exists (it’s “out there” in Cokie Roberts language), so the battle is joined and the Trump position is now somehow stronger.
It doesn’t have anything to do with reality. It doesn’t even have anything to do with perception because, as I’m saying, the effect of this “news” on the public or on anyone except Brietbart editors is not only not known; it’s irrelevant.
There is now opportunity and method available for those who want to argue the other direction, so Trump “wins the round” whether anyone listens or believes or cares. Welcome to 21st Century American politics, where you don’t even have to have a coherent point or convince anyone of anything or affect anything — you just have to show up with something to say, and you win.
I have to expand on this because it’s so infuriating.
Next we’ll have columnists and TV pundits asking themselves and each other, not “What have we learned” or “What does it mean,” but “How potentially damaging is this?”
Which is their favorite kind of discussion because it’s totally unmoored from anything real or meaningful — all they have to do is repeat back their fantasy projections of mythical voters or lawmakers and how they’ll react (and even in this case it’s abstracted because it’s not about how the politician is actually innocent or guilty of anything or what that thing is; it’s how their “position” is “weakened” because they’ve lost “control of the discussion”).
And of course — as we all know from bitter experience — this is a process and a framework that allows for endless bias, because it’s so easy to dismiss one side’s “weaknesses” and play up the other’s when it’s such a substance-free discussion. So journalism is reduced to, not even gossip, but “second hand” gossip — a group of wallflower kids breathlessly repeating to each other what the other, more popular kids are saying, without any regard for what actually happened or what’s true.
Why investigate the story, which requires work, when you can discuss the story of the story with no work at all.
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An alternative view from emptywheel:
Link
I think we are better served focusing on Peter Smith. His (untimely? Kinda?) death doesn’t smell right.
Wait a minute, wait a minute, wait a minute.
The campaign and the candidate that had a Russian hacking problem, some of whose data wound up in the hands of Wikileaks, probably a Russian intelligence asset, they paid for Steele’s invesigation as oppo research?
This sounds like a wonderful opportunity for a competent intelligence agency to feed Steele a ton of interesting garbage mixed in with enough intriguing truth to keep him or his client hooked.
I read the link. I always come away with the impression that emptywheel is really bright and insightful, but I rarely understand the specifics.
I don’t get this at all. “[I]in the wake of the DNC hack, the Democrats’ lawyer paid for private intelligence about Russian involvement with Trump, and they ended up paying someone whose sources… consistently were months and months behind the public knowledge on the hack.”
What’s ‘yikes’ about that? That one of the DNC’s outsourced opposition researchers didn’t have the best sources on every aspect of this? That’s not shocking. I don’t understand how the hacks are related to the dossier at all, in fact. I mean, they both are heavily Russia-related, but so are blini.
I don’t know how much a campaign can be expected to maintain ‘more distance’ between a candidate and opposition research. We all know they depend on them. She’s mad that the DNC lied about this, and didn’t cover their tracks better?
I don’t really get her emphasis on the dossier. I mean, as Martin says, it’s looking better and better, but everyone knows it’s ‘raw’ intelligence, collected at the behest of Trump’s Republican and Democratic political adversaries. I mean, it’s maybe the shock paddles to the unbeating heart of media outrage in this country, which was massively important, but it’s not a scalpel.
Finally, in the longer piece, she seems to ‘both sides’ these two behaviors:
I’m confused by her inability to see a distinction between the two things. At the very, very least, the question of ‘who is paying whom for what’ is clear in the DNC’s relationship with opposition researchers. Not so with the Trump campaign’s relationship with Russia.
Like the saying goes, If you’re not paying for it, you’re the product.
Now why would that source be months and months behind the knowledge on the hack?
Why wouldn’t they be?
What is this supposed to mean?
I would think the sources don’t have a good story to tell you about the hack, so the subject is avoided or you get information you already know, that’s already been revealed somehow.
You know, consider the source.
Didn’t anybody read Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy?
I emailed John, and he says that a dossier that leaves no question unanswered or subject unaddressed is the work of a conspiracy theorist.
You may not be focused on the right thing.
You may need to learn more about how the info in the dossier was acquired, who passed it on, and why.
Because of the context – when Steele was hired, and by whom, and what else was going on in the world of that “whom” – I’m nervous. It doesn’t smell right anymore.
Everyone wants to believe bad things about Trump and his cronies. They’re bad guys! So some bad things happened, and others might’ve happened. Why are those sources ratting out?
When you read “feedback loop” related to this dossier you should be concerned too. There are many possible feedback loops – the one thru Moscow is the nightmare if true.
It’s certainly possible that I’m not focused on the right thing! Happens with some regularity. But I’m having trouble figuring what the problem is here–at least what the big problem is.
An oppo research firm, first funded byRepublicans, then Democrats, taps Steele to puts together raw intelligence. He does. Much absolutely seems accurate. Much is probably not. That’s what ‘raw’ means! And it’s oppo research, not revelation.
So … what’s the nightmare scenario?
Your item 1 is pretty much it.
The shady deals, or whatever info provided, isn’t a conspiracy – it’s just what they had to work with. What they may have done is manipulate the Demo campaign with it at the time – I’d really like to believe their denials, but I just don’t. The timing is too good. There are political campaign pros involved. Where was the Democratic campaign getting its info about Trump and Russia if not from its own research?
And if the Trump regime can taint Russian investigations with a both-sides-do-it excuse, then this part of the investigation will not be effective against Trump. I now fear Moscow and Trump’s supporters planned for this.
It would be nice if Mueller and company could tip the whole dumpster over and, if this scenario is true, expose the whole thing. Complicated, but useful. Doubt it. Hope he has some other things to work with.
So the fear is that the Steele dossier was created to scuttle the Russia investigation? And this is because Fusion or Steele are in the pockets of, or were totally outplayed by, Russian intelligence, which was completely confident Trump would win in October, 2015, and was equally confident that a massive FBI investigation would be scuttled by a single erroneous (if it is erroneous) campaign oppo report?
The Trump regime can and will taint everything it touches. They don’t need planted evidence for that. You’re waaaaay overestimating the importance of the Steele dossier. It’s not like the FBI took that and said, “Okay, fellow G-men, shut down the investigation, we’ve got everything we need right here!” It’s a tiny fraction of the investigation. The contractors have spent a year building the house; the foundation is poured, the frame is up, the wires and pipes are in. We’re waiting for the finish carpenters, and you’re saying, ‘But this early draft of the architect’s intern’s drawings is shit! The whole house will fall down.”
Well, it appears I’m not the only one who has had this thought:
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/25/books/review/john-le-carre-ben-macintyre-british-spy-thrillers.ht
ml?smid=fb-share&_r=0
Their theory is a little different:
I think they are trying to say it’s blackmail material to manage Trump with. That was then, this is now. As remarks following might indicate the material can be put to other uses.
As to how important that dossier is? I hope it isn’t important. I am very afraid it is tainted. It is a big deal in the court of public opinion, and that counts for something.
We should be asking why Steele turned the dossier over to the FBI (and why they acted, or didn’t act).
Is this known? It isn’t all that clear from the Corn interview – it’s just called hair-raising and shocking.
Did Steele think, wow, this is so bad, the US government needs to act – it’s beyond my pay grade.
Or, gee, these unimpeachable sources I’ve used for years are now feeding me lines of BS? What’s up with this? I better tell the boys to check the work they’ve already done. Or, here I am reading in the news that X just happened, and my source who should’ve known – not a peep- not a flag -not even a good story – something is wrong.
It’s not clear Steele knew he was working directly for a campaign.
As noted in our host’s post, the FBI has had the dossier for a long time and it has been extensively evaluated and verified. So, it’s just a question of how it will be used in the Mueller investigation (since the Congressional investigations have apparently cratered).
Wow. Presidential candidate’s campaign hires law firm to do oppo research. Film at eleven.