I don’t know what relationships Juliette Kayyem retains in the intelligence community, but I imagine she still has some extensive connections. She has served as Assistant Secretary for Intergovernmental Affairs in the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, as well as Undersecretary for Homeland Security in her home state of Massachusetts. She was an adviser to Janet Reno when Reno was serving as President Clinton’s Attorney General. She also acted as Rep. Richard Gephardt’s appointee to the National Commission on Terrorism in 1999 and 2000. It’s unlikely that she doesn’t have some sources with at least some kind of insight into what’s going on inside Robert Mueller’s shop at the Justice Department.
Or, maybe, she’s just guessing like the rest of us. But it’s her opinion that the reason we’re seeing the Republicans ramp up their attacks on the FBI and the Steele Dossier is because they know something is coming down soon and it’s not going to be good.
National security expert Juliette Kayyem is predicting news from Robert Mueller’s Russia investigation will be announced within the next month.
“I think it is safe to say that before Thanksgiving … something’s going to drop with Mueller,” she said on Boston Public Radio today. “The pace is too much right now. Every 12 hours we’re now dealing with a piece of this story at a pace we haven’t seen.”
Kayyem was prompted to make her prediction by the buzz surrounding a story about how Hillary Clinton’s campaign funded what would eventually become the famous “Trump-Russia Dossier” that surfaced in January…
…Kayyem speculated that the pace of stories critical of Hillary Clinton represents “a recognition by the White House team” that Mueller is getting close to something substantive as a result of his investigation.
Kayyem pointed out that Mueller has interviewed former Press Secretary Sean Spicer and former Chief of Staff Reince Priebus.
“This is so close to the Oval Office now, if not in the Oval Office, that all of this [dossier news] to me is just background noise to what Mueller is going to deliver,” she said. “This is more than an obstruction charge. There is something big underlying the obstruction.”
It’s true that we’re seeing a pivot now. For a long time, Trump was seemingly acting out of a compulsion to comment on and dismiss the Russia investigation. But then he got new lawyers and went quiet. His attorney Ty Cobb seemed to be pursuing a strategy of conspicuous cooperation, where the story was that they had nothing to hide.
This seemed to work in tamping down the attention the media paid to the story and perhaps it earned some good will from Mueller’s shop, too, for whatever that might be worth. But something has changed this week, and it could be nothing more than the timing of the disclosure that the Clinton campaign indirectly funded the investigation that led to the Steele Dossier. But it could also signal that the Trump administration knows that something is coming down on them soon and that they need to change over from cooperating and legitimizing the investigation to undermining the independence of its conclusions.
I feel pretty confident that Mueller is preparing on his end, as well, which is why I think we learned that they’re looking into John Podesta’s brother and his lobbying firm’s compliance issues. It wouldn’t do to indict Manafort for offenses that Tony Podesta also committed. If Mueller wants to avoid the appearance that he’s acting in a partisan manner, he’ll want to take a piece out of the Democrats’ hide, too. When I saw that Tony Podesta was under scrutiny, I took that as a sign that something is coming soon and that it will hit the Trump folks like a ton of bricks.
But I also expect the first salvos to be at Manafort and Flynn, rather than at Trump. Unless they’re helping Mueller build a massive case against the president, I can’t see how they can escape criminal charges or why they wouldn’t be first in line. In a way, the longer they go without being indicted, the worse news it is for the administration.
In any case, I think we’ll see something before Thanksgiving. Whether she has inside information or not, I suspect that Juliette Kayyem is right about that.
There’s not the slightest question that Mueller is preparing a bombshell. The only question is going to be the timing. I thought that things would stay quiet through the holidays and then blow up in January or during the winter months.
But, I have zero inside information. Just going off knowing how Federal Prosecutors work professionally, and going off how the Watergate unfolded.
There is no way Mueller will go after Trump first. All the Presidents’ men will face their moments in court. It will be a drip-drip-drip of accusations, followed by outrage, counter-attacks and denial, then sudden capitulation and deal-making in which chastened Trumpites meekly testify in front of Grand Juries.
The only alternative to this story would be just a total counter-attack by Trump – issuing blanket pardons to everybody. I think that the pardon of Joe Arpaio was a dry run for that, but it got massive blowback.
I don’t think Trump’s standing in Washington is enough to just stonewall everything. If he fires the Special Prosecutor, it will probably result in Impeachment.
If he does nothing it will probably result in Impeachment, but Trump can bank on Republicans holding onto Congress so he can’t be Impeached. Even now, the odds favour GOP keeping the House and Democrats would need a miracle to win a Net 3 Senate seats. So, he could be safe.
He’s going to get the benefit of every possible inference. He can claim the “Moron Defense.” Yes, he did something illegal, but didn’t intend it, and received bad advice from Advisors “A”, “B” and “C”, all of whom will have already cut deals or be under indictment.
Against all this rational calculation is Trump’s wild instability. He’s likely to lose control and start a Nuclear War with North Korea if he’s pushed. He’s always won by “hitting back twice as hard” as he’s hit and he believes that doubling down always pays.
Just like Hitler’s personality BTW. “Boldness always pays” was his motto.
How this all plays out is anybody’s guess, but what seems certain is that the effectiveness of the Trump Administration is likely to come to a screeching halt. Not that they had a lot of momentum but whatever they did have is likely to dissolve pretty soon.
Hmm, anyone asked Pelosi if impeachment is on the table this time? Might not matter.
Setting aside the insanity of it, nuking Pyongyang is way way less likely to help him then simply brazening it out, pardoning where necessary, adopting total contempt for the courts, etc. I’m sure Gannon has told him as much.
Of course his best course is to brazen it out! But, nuking any city anywhere is pure madness to begin with, so the only chance it can happen would be if Trump stop dealing with his normal everyday madness and goes into full blown paranoid rage at everybody and decides to take the world down with him, like Hitler in his bunker in 1945.
I had to mention that as a realistic possibility given his personality.
I don’t know if it’s reasonable based on his personality. It might be reasonable based on his cognitive decline.
I think two things make it unlikely. One is he knows his billionaire friends wouldn’t like it. And two, I think he knows nuclear war might threaten his golf game.
“I don’t think Trump’s standing in Washington is enough to just stonewall everything. If he fires the Special Prosecutor, it will probably result in Impeachment.”
When Trump said during the campaign that he could shoot somebody in the middle of Fifth Ave and not lose any support, that also applied to the GOP House and Senate leadership and members of Congress. He’s disrespected them, screwed up policy strategy and tactics then blamed them for it, and basically treated them like enemies when it served his purpose. But they still support him. No matter what Mueller comes back with, Trump will not be impeached as long as its up to the GOP.
There are no Howard Bakers in the GOP anymore.
That would be BEFORE he became President, before there was any special prosecutor or indictments. And way before he declared war on the entire GOP establishment.
They would all like to get rid of him right now, but don’t dare even criticize him as long as the base stands with Trump. But, what if that isn’t enough? What if they are losing elections because of Trump, even though the base still loves Trump? What then, eh?
They have zero loyalty to him. None. They hate him privately but must publicly grovel.
“I can see him now, as he walked in his garden, hands clasped behind his back, head bowed as though in prayer. ‘Lord save me from all those who, smiling and on their knees, hide the knife they would love to plunge into my back.’ But, how can God help? All the Emperor’s people are like that, on their knees and with knives. Life is never easy on the summit. An icy wind always blows and everybody crouches fearful lest his neighbour hurl him down the precipice.” — Kapuschinsky, The Emperor.
I used to think (fear) so too. But I realized recently that he sure isn’t Hitler – he probably has no personal courage at all. He talks big, but he also lies inveterately. If there’s the slightest possibility of an important person’s blood (namely his) spilling, I don’t think he’s going to play no matter how bad the dementia gets.
Creating a disastrous mess inadvertently or through inaction, I’ll spot you that.
As far as impeachment goes… I’m afraid that if push comes to shove the Democrats will find it is not in their interest to cooperate. They would then own the impeachment of a Republican president, and get what? Mike Pence? If we get far enough along to where impeachment is a serious consideration, we will have an interesting constitutional crisis on our hands.
I see that the WSJ is calling for Mueller’s resignation over the dossier and the DNC and FBI involvement.
So stupid.
Sanders at this mornings presser said WH thinks Mueller will be winding things up in November so the word is out.
I still think it’s too early for THE big bombshell but seems prime time to start the drip drip.
I agree. Something is afoot and it promises to dirty everyone, Mueller, Comey, DNC, Clinton and all the presidents men and Trump. Accusations have already started, like the WSJ wanting Mueller to resign.
Oh, wouldn’t that be wonderful!!! A total cleaning of the swamp!!!
But…how does a swamp go about cleaning itself?
This will never happen…unless of course by divine accident.
Let us pray.
Let us pray not to continue to be preyed upon.
AG
Mueller will probably charge Flynn and Manafort with some combination tax evasion/RICO/money laundering charge. The millions of Russian Rubles these two got may even cause a problem for Putin.
I wonder if the basic ticking clock — Trump’s untouchable until the tax bill passes (or conclusively fails to pass) — has been communicated to Trump, in a way that he can understand?
Of course that final clause is the important part since we know from various sources, including the Australian PM phone call transcript, that there really is very little that he can understand.
(And I’m not being facetious or like some Daily Kos commenter gratuitously insulting Trump — I’m saying, there are real-world reasons for not expecting Trump to understand what the scenario is, and what’s protecting him. I’m sure he says that “it’s fake news” stuff in private as well as in public.)
Never understood the idea that the GOP is protecting Trump in order to get tax cuts. Pence will happily sign off on Tax cuts. So would President Ryan, if it got that far.
I agree, but that’s what we’ve been told over and over.
Sigh…
Told by whom, exactly?
The media?
Sigh…
AG
Well, to get their tax cuts, the Rs need to stay unified. I can’t imagine a scenario where impeachment or resignation helps them on that score.
I expect they will stick with Trump through the 2018 election, in part because of wanting tax cuts, in part because they are terrified of their base. But if they lose big in 2018, I expect them to be far more amenable to dumping him like a hot orange potato.
Being crassly political, what do people think is the best time for these things to drop? That is to say, when is it most advantageous to Democrats? I’ve always assumed in early October 2018, to maximize the hoped for electoral wave. Depressing cons, swaying indies, moving some to the polls that don;t normally vote in the midterms, etc.
It’s got to be way before that, since 1) all the pieces need to shake out; 2) the reality of it has to sink in for Republican voters; and 3) whatever plea-bargaining/”flipping”/disclosure pyramids are given time to cascade.
Look at Watergate as an example: the escalating revelations tightened like a noose around the Oval Office, step by step, inexorably, but it took time.
I was too young to really be aware of Watergate as more than “a thing that was happening”. I would normally agree with you, but these days things seem to move on internet time. Events are absorbed and accepted so much faster. A year is an eternity in politics.
THIS is exactly right. The earlier it happens, the worse for Trump & the GOP. Because this isn’t ONE event. It’s an endless series of stories – every day in the press.
“Who will be indicted next? Who will plea bargain? What will they say about Trump? Will the next batch of released evidence implicate people closer to the President? What did Trump know and when did he know it?”
The Press might drop the ball repeatedly, but there will be more and more revelations and they will come out . . . . slowly.
That is just how these things work. We’re going to see a lot more of this between now and the election, and if Trump takes drastic action and fires Mueller, then Congress will be under intense pressure to appoint a Special Prosecutor over Trump’s veto.
No matter what evasions and mis-directions they launch, pointing their fingers at Hillary and Obama just has no emotional significance because they are out of power. It just seems petty to go after them when they have no ability to influence anything and are only dragged back into the news because Republicans have literally nothing else to talk about.
It’s easy for any Democrat to ignore and condemn it, because it’s one thing to ask whether the sitting president is a crook, but quite another to go after the election loser or the ex-President. That just looks stupid, no matter how much Fox News pimps the fake scandal.
This ain’t a “pass the popcorn” moment: more like “fasten your seat-belts” The conversation around some Thanksgiving tables is going to get pretty weird, I think.
I can’t imagine Flynn isn’t either indicted or a witness for the prosecution, if the rule of law has any meaning left on this country.
You write:
Why would any sane person think that “the rule of law” does have any meaning left in this country?
Really.
From top to bottom.
From massive undeclared wars…and thus not subject to the “rule of law” in terms of congressional approval…right on down to cops shooting people without due cause and getting away with it time and time and time again.
Where is this “rule of law,” exactly?
i can’t seem to find much of it left anywhere here. unless of course you mean the rule that those with the most power have the right to oppress those with less power.
That’s not the rule of law, that’s the rule of the jungle.
And the swamp, too.
Bet on it.
AG
You know, I’ve been thinking about this for a while Arthur: you really are the Donald Trump of BooMan tribune:
It really is exactly the same M. O., the only difference being that Trump has a sympathetic audience of followers and you really don’t.
I do call you…and people like you…fake news, Jordan Orlando. You have absorbed so much of it that you have become that which you think you hate.
And…I do not think that:
1- “Everyone is untrustworthy.”
or that
2-“Nobody else but [me] understands what’s going on.”
Almost everyone…yourself included…is perfectly trustworthy.
Trustworthy to be themselves.
And as is quite plain here if you pay any serious attention to my posts and their responses, there are any number of people on this site who understand and agree with me about “what is going on.”There are millions more worldwide. The ongoing existence of media such as Counterpunch attest to that fact, as have been the continuing attempts throughout history by masses of people to struggle free from the dominance of tyranny in any form. There’s one going on right now in Catalonia. Sometimes those attempts succeed; most often they fail.
But they continue nonetheless.
You are who you are and I wish you no harm. The population of the world overall is what it is as well, and neither do I wish it any harm. Quite the opposite. I am just trying to do my small part…as I see it…to help forward progress. i have done that in my musical life for over 40 years, and in my online life for about 15 years. You don’t like what i have to say or how I say it? Great. Don’t read my stuff and…if you feel it necessary…criticize.
It’s all going to shake out as it must, anyway…
AG
When it comes to the GOP, their wealthy supporters, big banks and corporations, there is no rule of law.
At this point in our utterly degraded Congress, I cannot assume the rule of law will prevail, no matter how honorable Mueller and his FBI Team are but one has to just hope. Bad times.
Yes.
Also…no matter how dishonorable Mueller and his FBI Team may be. Trust no one who has survived and prospered in a position of real power in the DC swamp over the past 55 years.
No one.
No branch of government either.
Also yes.
As I say above…let us pray.
AG
When does it make sense for him to act?
Assuming he comes to something he thinks makes a good case … would it make more sense for a state like NY to proceed against anyone accused?
Trump cannot pardon that action.
On the other hand, does it make sense to indict some minor figure, who Trump might feel forced to pardon? Thereby making that person a vulnerable prosecution witness against someone else?
I really don’t think we know anything (I sure don’t) and I think the most likely scenario is a big nothing, but it’s fun to speculate, and hope, I guess.
You write:
I suppose you are right, nasruddin.
But…be careful of that “hope” thing.
People speak of the “monetization” of things.
Hand in glove with that idea goes the “marketization” of things.
The marketization of hope.
Obama’s…and his handlers’…one solid accomplishment.
Bet on it.
Once burned, twice shy.
AG
More tired, thread-consuming, utterly useless shtick from the Ron Paul evangelist.
Tell us more about the value of voter ID laws, hot dog.
Booman writes:
That is as bland an understatement as I have ever read, Booman. Even a cursory glance at her employment record shows that she is at the very least a trusted asset of the Permanent Government, specializing in “security” affairs.
Please.
Let’s call a spade a spade and a spook a spook here.
She is a trusted civilian spook asset or she would not have survived in the positions that she has held.
Now…an argument can be made that this is not a condemnation.
I reject that argument.
Therefore I at the very least mistrust her info.
You?
Apparently not so much.
AG
I’m not familiar with her work, but that resume would normally tend to set her up to fit nicely into the spook-asset unofficial friend of the Deep State category, at the very least. National security or Russia experts appearing in the MSM these days are just about 100% Deep State approved. Russiagate skeptics like Stephen Cohen, the leading Russia expert in the US, are completely shut out of the msm.
As for a “bomb” being dropped, depends. I don’t expect much by way of actual evidence that goes to the 2 main charges contained within “Russiagate”, but I do anticipate at some point Mueller producing evidence of lesser offenses like obstruction of justice, lying to a federal official, financial fraud and similar, against lesser people, and not Donald.
At obstruction of justice and lying to a federal official being “lesser offenses.” Those are both impeachable offenses if one can be impeached and significant time in the sneezer for the rest of us.
Stephen Cohen is a Russian government propagandist, certainly no different than “Deep State” defenders of US security state — perhaps worse, because he doesn’t just spin, he outright defends Putin with lies. The problem that is happening on the so-called left isn’t just that they’re defending fascist regimes because “anti-US”, but that they can’t even tell basic facts right. Like I have to rely on people at Brookings — whose foreign policy stances I generally do not agree with — because people on the FP left have lost all their bearings and can’t even get stories right, let alone the spin on the facts.
Any updates on Syria? UN confirmed once again who was responsible, even as Daddy Putin vetoes to protect his investment.
Btw, Trump has tampered with witnesses, offered them payment, obstructed justice — and that’s just what we know once the investigation has taken place, as we do not know what they will uncover.
Yes, take it from Russian expert “seabe”, courageously posting here under a pseud, who has shown only an ability to dutifully swallow and regurgitate what the Deep State-fed MSM serves him, versus a long-established scholar and author who has lived in Russia and speaks the language and who, until this latest round of pseudoscandal-mongering and new McCarthyism, was usually a go-to voice in the media for his views on things Russian.
Now, because he refuses to toe the DS line on Russia, he is persona non grata in the msm. Can’t have any dissent. It would ruin the purity of the official story about the evil Putin. It all sounds rather Stalinesque.
As to the UN, as previously noted, that was a junk GIGO report, with no investigator from that entity actually going on site to collect evidence.
At some point you tankies are going to look back at this period in your lives and be profoundly embarrassed at your credulity.
Nah, that’s about as likely as Trumpistas admitting they were hornswoggled.
. . . only residence w/in the Reality-Based Community, but also self-awareness leading to willingness to admit getting something wrong (as credible people do routinely when it happens . . . as it does, to all of us).
So na ga hap en.
No surprise the GOP is doing all of this for after all they are afraid an investigation of them may follow as well.
Mueller’s about to drop that first shoe! “A federal grand jury has approved the first charges, and someone could be in custody by Monday, sources say.”
http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/27/politics/first-charges-mueller-investigation/index.html