At this time of the year we often test our prognostication skills by making some predictions for 2018. Please add your own in the comments. Here’s some to start the conversation:
- Brexit – becomes less and less important in EU27 countries. A poll finds that 29% of Europeans think it has happened already. No Brexit deal is agreed in 2018, with the first deal negotiated rejected by the UK Parliament or withdrawn before Parliament can reject it. UK economic growth continues to decline. May says she will deliver a red, white and blue Brexit. With British passports becoming blue again, she has already delivered one third of her election promises.
- A Hollywood star will be outed for not abusing women.
- New CDU/SDP Grand Coalition in Germany builds alliance with Macron on an EU reform agenda. A Eurozone Finance Minister is appointed with a budget equivalent to Juncker’s expense account.
- Trump starts a war somewhere about something in time for Mid-term elections.
- Trump and the Republicans lose control of Senate in Mid-Term elections undermining Trump’s agenda but Democrats do their best to implement much of it anyway.
- Putin becomes President for life with 103% of the vote.
- Continuing climate change results in ever more extreme weather events. A major storm destroys Trump’s golf resort in Mar-a-Lago. Trump blames Obama’s Kenyan witch doctor for causing it.
- Italian elections result in prolonged stalemate. Nobody notices.
- Iranian protestors will be criminalised and limited reforms instituted to head off further pressures for change. The middle class will be bought off with shares in Iranian oil futures developed by our own Chris Cook.
- Catalonian independence will get nowhere, but Rajoy’s popularity and that of the Partido Popular nosedives with Cuidanos benefiting.
- Fine Gael remain the largest party after an Irish general election despite concerns over the housing crisis. There are huge difficulties in forming a government, however, and Sinn Fein offer to support a minority Fianna Fail government while maintaining a joint administration with the DUP in N. Ireland remains impossible.
- The DUP proposes that creationism be taught in N. Ireland schools as a quid pro quo for allowing the Irish language onto the curriculum.
- A backlash against technology will result in a drop in iPhone sales and further legislative initiatives to make social media companies responsible for the content they publish. Artificial intelligence tools will be developed to prevent social media breaking news stories rightly the property of Fox News.
- Kim Jong-un offers Trump exclusive rights to develop a Trump Tower and golf resort in Pyongyang as a means of undermining sanctions on luxury goods. Trump proclaims a new era in US N. Korean relations that will help poor people.
- Trump builds his wall in Doonbeg claiming it is the start of a global wall against Mexicans in retaliation for them failing to fund his wall on the Mexican border.
- Varadker says a hard border wall may be needed in Ireland to stop Brexit refugees flooding the country.
