When you look at all the issues that need to be negotiated before January 19th to avoid a government shutdown, it’s very hard to see how a shutdown can conceivably be avoided. There’s always the possibility that they’ll pass another short-term continuing resolution to buy themselves more time, but even that is looking unlikely.
Because there are so many areas of dispute, both parties have a lot of options for assigning blame to the other side. If there is a shutdown, the Republicans will most likely opt to focus on two areas. One will be the old standby of a strong national defense. The GOP wants to cut a deal to break the budget caps put in place by the Budget Control Act of 2011. But the Democrats are insisting that any increase in authorized spending be split between defense and non-defense spending. The Republicans will argue that the Pentagon has been systematically underfunded ever since 2011 and that the Democrats are leaving our military in a weakened condition. They’ll argue that the Democrats are shutting down the government to protect illegal immigrants, which is also imperiling our national security.
“If the Democrats want to shut down the government because they can’t get amnesty for illegal immigrants, then they’re going to have to defend those actions to the American people,” Republican Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas said Sunday on ABC’s “This Week” program.
As you can see from the two Democratic senators from New Hampshire, the Democrats will never concede that a shutdown is being done to protect the Dreamers because too many of them are frightened by the rhetoric of people like Sen. Tom Cotton. So, while they will appeal to the public’s general sympathy for the Dreamers who are protected by an expiring DACA, and they will claim that they are fighting for them, if there is a shutdown they will argue that it’s about Trump’s stupid border wall. And they’ll note that Trump promised over and over again that the Mexicans would pay for his stupid border wall.
On the defense appropriations, the Democrats will counter that the Republicans just gave away all the money to millionaires with their “tax reform,” and that the budget rules are needed to control runaway deficit spending. If the caps are going to be busted, the money should go equally to the military and to domestic spending, including investments in education, health and infrastructure.
Unfortunately, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) ratcheted up threats of a government shutdown last week by insisting on ending the long-standing, bipartisan agreement over parity for defense and non-defense spending. This principle of parity is enormously important for working families and is something that cannot be terminated. If we do not act, funding for education, child care, health care, nutrition assistance, affordable housing and other important domestic programs will be at a 40-year low as a percentage of our economy. – Sen. Bernie Sanders
These are the general outlines of the coming blame game. The Democrats will have more leverage in this fight than they had during the health care and tax battles because the Republicans need the votes of at least nine Democratic senators to pass a bill that funds the government.
Yet, the White House is forcing some very unsavory choices on them. In addition to the demand for wall funding, Trump wants to tighten the rules for allowing unaccompanied minors to enter the country, put limits on family immigration preferences, and eliminate the visa lottery system that promotes diversity. This is also in the context of new draconian immigration policies, like the announcement yesterday that we will deport 200,000 Salvordorians who came here initially as refugees after the 2001 earthquakes. Without getting concessions on some of these demands, the White House may allow DACA to expire and begin deporting Dreamers. As a result, it could be that a DACA fix isn’t a part of any deal to keep the government open despite the fact that the Democrats would be breaking a pretty big promise if they make an agreement that lacks it.
The DACA fix being discussed this month would affect only a sliver of the larger community, and the Democrats have rejected a package that would protect the “Dreamers” while cracking down on enforcement against the broader population of immigrants here illegally.
“A lot of these conditions are [a] non-starter,” Rep. Adriano Espaillat (D-N.Y.), the first formerly undocumented immigrant to be elected to Congress, said last week. “The wall is certainly a non-starter.”
Theoretically, there would still be time to make a separate agreement on DACA but the Democrats wouldn’t have the same leverage. A government shutdown usually hurts Congress more than the president, but in this case the Republicans control both Congress and the White House, and an inability to keep the government operating will probably make them look dysfunctional and incompetent. The Dreamers’ cause is popular with the public, so it might not be so easy for the Republicans to blame the Democrats’ lax immigration stance for the shutdown. This is especially true because it’s not the only issue that may result in deadlocked negotiations.
In the end, the Democrats won’t get everything they want and the eventual deal will infuriate their base. Politically, they can probably break at least even if not come out ahead if they allow a shutdown to take effect. The Republicans stances just aren’t that popular. So, whether it’s the stupid wall or deporting the Dreamers or spending more on defense and less on everyone else, the Democrats are positioned in a good enough place to give as good as they get. And since they’re in the minority, they’re not ultimately responsible for the shutdown. It’s up to the Republicans to win over their votes.
The real question is will the Dems have the balls to take a stand.
There is only one failure Democrats can make–having a split vote on anything. And I don’t want to have the Blue Dogs and New Democrats complaining about immigration being too progresssive. One nice touch would be a reduction of Russian, UK, Eastern European, and Scandanavian immigration. Why would anyone want to immigrate to Trump’s America? A second idea would be to end the punishments on Cuba and reduce the Cuban quota, forcing open borders between Cuba and the US.
But I have a feeling that this sort of political statement is exactly what you want to avoid even though it will make other trades look week.
The strongest argument has always been protecting the undocumented residents who have been treated by employers long enough as culturally American.
And since they’re in the minority, they’re not ultimately responsible for the shutdown.
If there is a shutdown, this should be the Democrats answer to every question they’re asked about it.
At this point, the GOP has complete control of both the Legislative and Executive Branches of the US government. The onus is on them to pass a budget. If the GOP cannot manage to avoid a shutdown with what are arguably the best circumstances possible, that’s on them. Period. My advice to any Democratic legislator at this moment is to let their GOP counterparts duke it out, stand firm on demands that matter to our coalition (DACA, CHIP, etc.), and break out the popcorn in the meantime. When appearing in the press, all that need be said is that clearly the majority party cannot get its act together – and to ask McConnell and Ryan what their problem is. Leave it at that. We’ll live through a shutdown.
The Dems need to find a way to stop the photo op meetings with the Donald. No more negotiating in the WH. I really do not understand why they just don’t let the GOP nuke the senate rules and prove to the world the GOP cannot govern. Isn’t the nuke threat what keeps the Dems at the table?
The Democrats should refuse to compromise with a party that supports a mentally-imbalanced multiply-accused sexual predator. They’ll happily compromise with a party that works in good faith, but “we cannot negotiate with abusers.”
I just got an email from my Senator, Sherrod Brown, thanking me for supporting the rejection of the tax bill. Yes, a day late and a trillion dollars short, but he’s the best Ohio has and I’m behind him all the way.
I took the opportunity to email back to express my hope that he and the rest of the Democrats will stand up against this blackmail from Trump. I wanted to tell Senator Brown to say Shove the Wall up your Collective Asses, but I thought that might have been too much. He knows what I’m saying.
The Dems simply cannot cave on issues like this. It’s political blackmail and Trump and the Republicans need to own it. Everything has to reflect on them because they hold the majority. I just hope DACA isn’t blown up as a hostage.
Presumably the ICE Gestapo are not hampered by these essentially bogus government “shutdowns”, which seem mostly to shut down national parks and environmental protection agencies, ha-ha. Perhaps Cliven Bundy can engage in another of his yokel militia takeovers, given that he was just held harmless for his last one…
Ultimately it appears from your analysis that Dems are terrified of the blame game the Repubs will surely deploy in the fight, while it seems doubtful the Repubs will care much about any blame message the Dems attempt. While I have seen reference to this supposedly overwhelming public support for the doomed Dreamers (83% etc), it’s quite clear that Repubs John Corndog and Corporal Cotton simply don’t believe it.
The reality is that the incompetent white electorate applauds every single one of Trumper’s ethnic cleansing decisions, from the daily ICE Gestapo tactics to the latest Salvadoran exodus, and Trumper just keeps on coming with them. The white Repub base loves it, and they will love seeing stories of DACA kids being deported. This is the country we live in–Making America Worse Again(tm).
There hasn’t been the slightest attempt by any element of the organized political factions of this country to demonstrate the preposterous, unconscionable waste that our bloated “defense” spending constitutes, from the far-flung Imperial Soldiery to the roaring fighter squadrons cheered on by bedazzled SuperBowl Citizenry. The best the Dems can do is try to ensure that we spend as much money on the public good as we waste on “national defense”. Thus the rational approach to government and “defense” followed by every sane country on earth cannot be followed by FailedNation, Inc.
If the Republicans are united enough to fund the government, but a Dem filibuster prevents it, I don’t think the Dems will entirely avoid blame. For the House to be so united, though, is a big question. Any concessions on immigration will lose R votes in the House. So will any increases in non-military domestic spending. So in both cases, the R calculation must be to sacrifice House votes to buy Dem Senate votes. I don’t know that there is a balance to be struck there. I don’t think the R have enough House votes to spare. If there is not, though, the better strategy for the Rs would be to keep their caucus united and let the Dems filibuster. That would at least keep the blame shared and prevent further disunion in their own ranks. The Republicans have shown very low strategic competence, but high propensity to capitulate to their right wing for unity. The wild card, as always, is Trump. No telling what he will say.
Continuing resolution free of the wall and any immigration actions other than DACA?
If the Dems filibuster the press will blame the shutdown on them. I’ve already heard this pitch on the news “If the Democrats shut down the government…”.
if they worry about that we’re fucked.
Rule #1 of the American corporate media is that the Republican party is never to blame for anything, ever. Not for anything will they tell the truth about that. The owners want Republicans elected, so the media will lie to achieve that result.
Maybe that’s a large part of why Republicans are in the majority. Acceptance of their wacky economic theories I understand in light of the lack of any real economic education in our schools. Acceptance of the perpetual state of war I can understand because we have all lived in fear since 1945 (or at least 1950). But blind acceptance of spin … Does anyone except fill out right wing yahoos really beleive in a Wall? Not limiting immigration but an actual physical wall as in the Great wall of China or the Atlantic Wall or the Maginot Line? None of which worked anyway? Oh, I forgot. History in optional in many schools and in others (like the ones my grandkids attended) it began in 1960 (or 1980 when RR saved us from Communist unions /snark and it’s a shame I have to add /snark).
Only wall that works is one where those who climb over face mortal danger. the donald’s wall just forces those who climb over to stand in line to get on a bus to take them back around the wall. Oh and they get to spend some time in a corporate jail before the ride around the wall.
I’ve never been convinced that his business backers WANT a wall. Maybe it’s just the boogeyman that’s trotted out so the Dems can concede something and say “Whew! At least we stopped the Wall.”
Even the Berlin Wall was torn down.
The general lack of economic understanding is the thing that troubles me perhaps the most. It just sounds reasonable to most people that we must cut spending and balance the budget. Many even support a balanced budget amendment. There is nothing that would be more harmful to us than that. It means we would be bound to reduce spending to ensure there is no deficit. It won’t matter if it is medicare or unemployment insurance and etc.. Cut the spending by law. That tax cut they just passed would have to be paid for by – – insert your favorite here.
A balanced budget amendment also assures that Recessions turn into Depressions. A shockingly high number of people want to end the Federal Reserve System and have a hard currency fully backed by gold. They really do want to crucify mankind on a cross of gold.
All reasoning based on a household or firm analogy is fallacious. A household is an open system. A national economy is a closed system. Closed and open systems are radically different mathematically and do not behave the same, hence the Paradox of thrift.
I think we’re in an exceptional period where that is not the case. The mainstream media is hostile to Trump. Not unfair by any shot, they still cut him more slack than they should, but basically hostile. He scares them. For good reason. And since the R party is lined up behind him, they are in the shadow.
The coverage of the Republican tax proposal was the least favorable of a Republican tax cut I have ever seen. Its unpopularity is not unrelated to this. This is another problem for the Rs right now, They are used to a media thumb on the scale for their side, save, sometimes, on social issues. That thumb isn’t there now.
. . . in that the Corporate Media are covering Trump/GOP more critically than has been their habit with GOPers . . .
. . . but still haven’t shed and can’t resist their Both-Siderist framing tic (e.g., whether Dems will shut down, or allow shutdown of — by their intransigence! — government [as someone noted upthread or in an earlier thread]).
That strikes me as the most probable outcome.
I’ve seen universal giddy coverage of the tax cuts claiming that they are across the board good and will spur investment and job creation (they won’t – they WILL spur stock market rises based on share buy backs).
Corporate media WANT the corporate tax cuts and their management are part of the 1% who benefit the most.
In my case, and I believe the case for many seniors, my itemized deductions for health care, mortgage, and property tax (yes, under $10K property tax) far exceed the doubled standard deduction so I lose two personal exemptions and gain nothing. The status of over-65 tax breaks is unclear. We used to get doubled personal exemptions, then just an increased exemption (much less than double), now apparently only an increased standard deduction which does nothing for me. My daughter pointed out that if your dependent is a disabled adult you get nothing because there are on childcare tax credits.
So, when I began working, seniors got a doubled tax exemption and Social Security was tax-free. Now SS is taxed nearly 85% (thanks Obama) and there is NO personal exemptions (thanks Trump). As a fellow retiree said recently, “Where is OUR Claude Pepper!”
“…too many of them are frightened by the rhetoric of people like Sen. Tom Cotton.”
So, in a sense, too many Democrat’s are afraid of the white nationalist vote in their own backyard.
I’d say that 2018 is as much about throwing out any elected Democrat who would be frightened by anything Cotton says, but if progressives can’t protect a seat from the White Grievance vote when Republican’s control all branches of government, then I don’t know what we’re really going to really achieve going forward.
The only reason DACA needs to be fixed is because Trump broke it.
This is hostage taking and Trump is demanding ransom. Democrats should not make any concessions for a fix. If he succeeds this time, he will simply attack more vulnerable populations. He needs to feel pain when he makes bad decisions.
Besides, didn’t Jeff Flake trade his tax cut vote for a DACA fix. How many times do we have to pay for it?