It’s true. One lesson from the 2013 government shutdown is that no one really remembered it when it came time to vote in the 2014 midterms. It might have even helped the Republicans by satisfying their base that they were fighting. So, whatever the short term fallout might be from the current shutdown, it might not have any impact on the upcoming elections.
It could be that some ultimate compromise helps Trump by proving he can split from his base and cut a deal with the Democrats. Or, a deal could hurt him by demoralizing his base.
I think the lesson is that it’s better to focus on getting the best outcome on substance than worrying about how it’s playing in the polls.
It’s true. One lesson from the 2013 government shutdown is that no one really remembered it when it came time to vote in the 2014 midterms.
Because once it was over, people moved on. Meaning the press and even both parties. Did the Democrats ever being it up? I’d guess no. Given that it’s happening now and not August or September, my guess is this time will be swept under the rug too.
So, predictably and ‘predictedly’, the Worse-Than-Useless Corporate Media are almost entirely focused on the latter.
With the exception of the RNCC planning to run ads against the Dems who voted against the original bill in the House, trying to portray them as voting against CHIP. Although the new bill that finally lands in the House might get yea votes from those same Dems to cancel it out. Otherwise, yeah, there’s not political price to pay for shutdowns this early in the election cycle.
There is a non zero risk that the tax cut drove or will drive stock prices into a bubble and that when or if it breaks people will get laid off. Then they will blame each other for the shut down which caused the economy to slip. The republicans are out there now on cable trying hard to lay it on the Dems.
I heard on the TV last night that the reason it didn’t play in 2014 was that people were focused on the Obamacare roll snafus. They were off-setting penalties.
I heard on the TV last night that the reason it didn’t play in 2014 was that people were focused on the Obamacare roll snafus. They were off-setting penalties.
So now they say they are not going to negotiate DACA while government is shut down. Does that mean also no border wall?
When Dems open government again they say they will negotiate DACA. Yeah right! I can almost see that happening. That’s “almost”–not really for sure.
Responses by a real press to today’s Repubs:
Good points. I think I heard someone on cable say your number one.
They’re talking about your number two right now on MSNBC. But it appears it’s Obama’s fault anyway, since Daca was unconstitutional anyway!?
It is worst than that. the donald is running an ad that states the Dreamers are criminals that need to be deported. There is no deal to be had. The GOP will make federal employees suffer and then change the senate rules and pass all legislation with a simple majority. That is the change the donald wants…remember his tweets from the senate failure to kill Obamacare.
Keep the government shut down until the mid-terms… The voters should be allowed to determine the course of our country. Isn’t that right Garland?
I wish we had snap elections…
I’m not sure there is much chance of any good results coming out of this…
I’m pretty pessimistic about the ability of the Democrats in the Senate to hold out. Apparently five of them caved last night (the usual supsects- Jones, McCaskill, Heitkamp, Manchin, Donnelly), but were balanced out by four Republicans voting against (Flake, Paul, Graham, Lee) and McCain being out. So McConnell needs 10 votes from either the five Republicans or the rest of the Democrats. Frankly, I don’t think that will be a very hard task, as long as Trump can keep his mouth shut. Let’s remember that 18 Senate Democrats just voted to give his administration un-reviewable warrantless surveillance powers. And if they are willing to do that, I don’t think there is much hope once the donor class turns against them, or they loose too many of the beltway professionals or television talking heads, or the Republicans do a push poll in their state, or they read a strongly worded letter in the Times… or some of the other such nonsense happens that usually spook them.
Of course, there is still the tea party wing to throw the random grenade into the process, so all hope is not lost, but clearly the Trump administration (and/or Trump himself) at this point does not want any compromise on immigration and most likely the longer this goes on, the more Trump will gravitate to his insane white nationalist base.
What we then get are probably a series of short term continuing resolutions for the rest of the year and no action on DACA, until they can pass this hot potato off to the next congress.
I really hope I’m wrong about this and saner heads will prevail and something good does happen.
Perhaps they had Schumer’s permission to cave because they were not needed.
Why would you allow them to cave? Isn’t a united front the better of the two options? That way Trump can’t say there were plenty of Dems who wanted the deal but Shumer stopped it. What does it gain?
Because they are all 5 from states that are bright red, and all are up for reelection this coming November.
Whether that was the right vote to help them next November is an opinion call, but they must have all thought so.
Yes, I am pretty sure of that. Still does it really help them and the party. Just not convinced I suppose.
But that’s a problem because the whole Repub narrative on this is based on the Dem use of the filibuster to stop this. One vote less and it would have lost the majority, destroying that argument.
My Goodness, to hear our Repubs tell it, they support both CHIP funding and DACA! Whoknew?! But if that’s the case, then why didn’t the Repub Congress simply pass the worked-out senate compromise deal Durbin et. al. brought to Trumper?
Better still, if Der Trumper foolishly opposed a funding bill that both parties (supposedly) strongly supported, then the proper thing for a US Congress to do was pass it, and then override the incompetent Prez’s veto!
The reality is that Congressional Repubs–as well as Trumper and Acting Prez Kelly–oppose ever doing anything on DACA, and any media account that doesn’t make this plain is engaging in disinformation.
I agree but I dont think House could override a veto even assuming everyone was allowed to vote their conscience. Senate seems like it could.
As I implied a short while ago.
One half of independents will hear the part about Schumer failing to negotiate.
The other half will hear Schumer’s frustration at having offered to move half-way to Trump.
Guess which party both of these hurt with which independents.
Democrats better hope that it will be forgotten by November or that they have enough challengers to put Republicans on the spot for what they have done over a decade. Democrats also better hope the the deadwood in the party gets primaried starting soon.
Deadwood primaried? Does that include those up for re-election among the five yes votes? Those states are all red. There may be nothing better to offer up.
Better to have a republican that votes against you 100% of the time, representing WV, than Manchin, who only votes with you 90% of the time. That’s the only way purity will be achieved.
The purity test may hang us all. No doubt about that. Then again what gets done if there is not unity? Are there times when we all stand up and say enough is enough?
Excepting Jones the others vote with Trump about fifty percent of the time. Good enough?
Given that the “generic republican” will vote with trump 100% of the time then yes, that’s good enough. Do you have evidence to support the claim that Manchin votes with trump 50% of the time? And by “votes with trump” I mean a vote that actually impacts the total. His recent vote to end debate doesn’t qualify as “voting with trump.”
There is a web site you can google with the info you want. I know the theory about the devil you know. But keep voting for the devil and it is guaranteed to be less than great. It’s all up to you. I live in a red state and on it goes, election after election. Better to find a way to win it so we can let these jackasses go. Anyway you may like it some,other way. I get that.
So did you cancel your subscription?
Yes. I canceled. A pain in the ass. You have to call.
I am guessing that this is the link that Jonf is talking about. Assuming he will correct me if I am wrong. On most matters the 538 blog provides some nuance. In this case, what I am looking at is akin to a blunt instrument, as far as measurement goes. What would be more interesting is to break this down into votes that truly were substantial and controversial versus those that were routine (passing the debt ceiling strikes me as one of those) or in the case of nominations (usually a certain amount of deference is given initially to new presidents when they assemble their cabinets, etc.). ACA repeal efforts, tax bill, Russia sanctions? Manchin was definitely not whistling Dolt 45’s tune. The one interesting thing is that the blog does try to predict what percent of the time, using this particular blunt statistical instrument, based on Dolt 45’s winning percentage in the state of West Virginia (in the case of Manchin). Based on that information, Manchin should have been doing Dolt 45’s bidding 93.5% of the time. The reality? Not even close, even given the low bar that the blog provides.
Yes and that stat would make him a republican. That seems to be what it means. Still a blunt instrument. Best way, as you say, is to analyze each vote. In this case the idea is that a vote to shutdown could be seen as support for immigrants, specifically DACA. So to,avoid being tagged with that they all voted to keep the gov open. And that is where I have a problem. But like I said, to each his own.
I would add that the republicans have had ample time to deal with this and all they do is,kick the can down the road. So if their yes votes opened the gov, I would have been upset, not that it matters in the grand scheme of things. I bitched at my senator for his chicken shit vote.
I see McConnell is now saying he will address Daca after the gov opens. So maybe the Dems have caved on the issue. Promises, promises. L
One way of looking at that instrument that might be semi-useful is to examine how it is measuring actual Republicans, and then to examine how the more “moderate” ones vote according to the way that scale measures “voting with Trump.” For example, we can use Susan Collins as a case study. She is certainly characterized as a “moderate” in the media and poses as one when she speaks. And yet she votes with Trump 83.1% of the time. One could repeat this exercise with other “moderate” GOP Senators, and I am willing to wager that Manchin will be nowhere near their Trump scores. That said, if we limited the scoring to genuinely controversial bills and votes, that scoring might look a bit different. Perhaps a case for calling her “moderate” might actually hold more water with a different instrument. Anyhoo, this is the sort of stuff that sets off alarms for folks like me who know a little something about tests and measurements. Before we go into the weeds about how to build a better instrument, I’ll note merely for now that it is complicated (if the goal is to yield competent measurements) and that I would really want to give myself time think through what criteria to use (although my prior comment gives some hints as to what I would look at). Anyway, interesting (in the good sense of the term) conversation. Wish I had time to get into some of this stuff more.
Don, I am not nearly as into this as you are. But I do understand your points. I only looked at it bc of h/her reference to 90% which seemed odd to me, especially since all five of them voted yes – with Trump- on this vote. I’m sure most feel this was a throw away vote and those in the red states could vote with Trump to help protect themselves. Sounds reasonable, right?
Well, Daca is a moral issue. Trump wants a fucking wall for his white supremacist views and friends, and leave the Daca issue behind. He got five votes of the ten he needs in his pocket and now they will go after the other five. If this were not about the welfare of those people it would be throw away for me too, but it is not. It is a moral issue versus a white nationalist issue. I simply don’t like the Dino vote in this case however 538 or others want to frame it. I made that known to my red state senator’s campaign.
I’m with you as far as making some phone calls to these Senators. My spouse and I have made a few of our own, for all the good that does (red state GOP Senators really are the worst). In my case, I hold no hope of their staffers actually listening. Maybe you’ll have better luck.
This right here. Just about the only time Manchin voted “with” trump were when his vote is one of many. He rarely votes against his caucus. He represents WV not Vermont. You want to primary him. Go ahead. I’m sure the republicans will happily take that seat.
I always fuck up the block quote but wtf is this bullshit?
From the article you linked: “Then the following November, something happened that plainly informed the moves of Democrats today as they drove the government toward another shutdown.”
What the fucking fuck? I’m citing that sentence right there when I call today to cancel my subscription.
No don’t do that! Take a day.