The Pennsylvania Supreme Court has struck down the Republicans’ partisan gerrymander. To be clear, this is a ruling on the state constitution, not the federal one. That might make it more difficult for the Roberts Court to overrule. I’m not a lawyer, but this is a different kettle of fish than the cases where U.S. District Courts have ruled against congressional maps.
The Democratic-controlled court, which said that the districts violate the state constitution, gave the Republican-controlled Legislature until Feb. 9 to pass a replacement and Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf until Feb. 15 to submit it to the court. Otherwise, the justices said they will adopt a plan in an effort to keep the May 15 primary election on track.
The court said the boundaries “clearly, plainly and palpably” violate the state’s constitution, and blocked it from remaining in effect for the 2018 elections.
Presumably, the court will wind up drawing the boundaries because the Republican legislature and the Democratic governor will not agree on them. And if the process isn’t short-circuited by the U.S. Supreme Court, Stephen Wolf of Daily Kos Elections projects that it will mean at least one more guaranteed seat for the Democrats and a potential pick up of as many as six.
If you’re handicapping the likelihood of the Republicans losing control of the House, you need to adjust your odds in light of this news. If it stands, it could be the decisive factor that changes the ultimate outcome.