I don’t know. Maybe the “Deep State” should let the president meet with Kim Jong Un. Consider this some devil’s advocacy.
Sure, it’s crazy to just agree to meet a foreign adversary with barely any preconditions or preparations. And, yes, this would be giving the North Korean maniac something he desperately wants without him having done anything too meaningful to warrant it. And, no, it’s not likely that Trump will swing some kind of miracle out of this meeting that will result in denuclearization of the peninsula or increased prospects for peace. I can’t argue against any of that.
But let’s at least acknowledge that our president has his strengths and weaknesses, and in this case his weaknesses all argue against bothering with the careful diplomatic protocols of state to state meetings. Trump can’t follow those rules or that kind of direction, so should we really ask him to try?
We can wait around for North Korea to take “verifiable steps” to show that they are disarming their nuke program, but that will never happen and Trump wouldn’t understand the difference between real and fake steps anyway. It could be enough that they simply don’t create any more radioactive explosions or launch any more ICBMs. Maybe a May meeting is too soon, but how about six months of no activity?
That’s worth something all by itself, no?
Jennifer Rubin has been sounding saner of late, but her crazy neoconservative traits come out in her piece here. She approvingly cites Nicholas Eberstadt saying “we must recognize that economic pressure will not alter the intentions of the Kim family regime — ever. ” And then in the next paragraph she says that a Trump/Kim meeting would “undercut much of the good work the Trump administration has actually done — relisting North Korea as a state sponsor of terror, increasing sanctions.” She then goes on to quote Eberstadt some more, explaining how we can “severely cut both North Korea’s international revenues and the vital flows of foreign supplies that sustain the economy” and “send the North Korean economy — and the North Korean military economy — into shock.”
Somehow neither he nor she seems self-aware about how they’re contradicting themselves. If sending their economy into shock has zero chance of changing their intentions, then it isn’t a solution. It might have some deterrent effect on other nations and keep the international anti-profileration mechanisms honed, but it won’t bring the North Koreans to the table in a mood to abandon their current strategy.
So, maybe if we keep following these strategies based on diplomatic protocols and rewards and punishments, it’s not going to get us anywhere. If the South Koreans think a meeting would help, maybe it’s better than doing nothing. Or, maybe the prospect of such a meeting is a better negotiating tool for extracting concessions than a sustained regime of crippling sanctions that very few people think will work.
Finally, since I am playing devil’s advocate here, what could be more terrifying to Kim than having the experience of seeing Trump’s insanity up close?
The best strategy is to assume the safest course is to trust Trump with absolutely nothing. That means delay, delay, delay and hope that there is some kind of salvageable solution still available after Trump is hopefully voted or forced out of office. But delay is our enemy here since it’s really about getting a deal before Kim can land a nuclear weapon on our West Coast. Why not offer a meeting with Trump in exchange for a halt in testing and then string the thing out with an ever increasing and unmeetable set of conditions?
Whether Trump did this impulsively or with the connivance and consent of the South Koreans, the “Deep State” can work with it. Let Trump have his meeting. And keep pushing off the date.
It’s actually a more promising route than what we’ve been doing.
You write:
You are referring to Kim Jong-un, right? This is the same Kim Jong-un who has used anti-aircraft missiles and flamethrowers to execute people in his government for various failures? The same person who appears to be hunting down and killing any members of his own family that might be used in opposition to him? The same one who has killed sundry musicians and at least one soccer teams using increasingly outlandish methods to do so?
Oh.
Maybe you should rethink that sentence, Booman.
Like this:
Or maybe this:
May they blow each other up. Real good.
AG
The United States cannot prevent North Korea from being able to land a nuclear weapon on the American west coast. They may already be able to do it.
The choice is to live with that reality or launch a catastrophic war. That has been the choice for more than twenty years.
You said exactly what I was going to say. Our intelligence community thinks they can already. In fact, probably not just the west coast. The North Koreans ramped up their nuclear program in response to our invasion of Iraq. It makes total sense when one thinks back to how the boy blunder was linking them to Iraq as part of his “Axis of Evil”. I’m not dismissing North Korea’s unpredictability but there was nothing unpredictable about this.
It’s surely a given by now that a neo-conservative analysis and prescription CANNOT be correct. The great thing about such people is that (like Col. Klink) they are always wrong.
We’ve have troops in Korea since 1951 to protect the South Korean democracy. That should be what American policy should be geared towards. It also should mean that South Korea should have a significant say in our “policy” toward the Kim family business.
Of course we should have met with North Korea decades ago. Of course a way to resolve this 65 year old war via a peace treaty should have been found long ago. Of course there’s no need to have 200 or more nuclear warheads aimed at this hapless backwater of “communist” poverty and famine. It’s very curious how we could manage to have diplomatic relations with the two great communist powers (with the USSR continuously), but maintain this absolutist stance towards the bit players, Cuba and North Korea. The status quo seems like diplomatic lunacy.
It’s a great shame and regret that no way could have been found to have talks with North Korea when we had sensible Dem prezes running the show post 1989. Instead, we’ve had Repub prezes making a bad situation even worse, with Bushco being the true father of the Kim family bomb. Now that the nuclear horse is out of the barn, we have our (worse than) C-team getting into the big game. Kind of ironic, and appalling. A Trumperian fuck-up and fumble is almost certain, but anything is better than two (nuclear armed) head of state impulsives tweeting about how fat and stupid the other is.
On the one hand, people assume that any change is good; but that’s not necessarily the case. Sometimes stalemate is the best option.
On the other hand, the belligerent public posturing doesn’t seem like it leads to a good end. Direct talks might be better.
I wish we knew more about what So Korea’s motives and agenda really are. I think So Korea is on its own side, but it has to keep its American friends with their military presence happy. I don’t fully understand Mr Trump’s agenda either – the only thing I know for sure is that he wants something that can be spun to make him look good, whatever happens. Maybe that’s a positive.
One risk is, as someone mentioned, that the North Koreans will see what kind of person they’re dealing with, and improve their leverage.
I came here this morning to see if Booman had raised this topic and lo and behold not only is it raised but…
“It’s actually a more promising route than what we’ve been doing.”
Which was my first thought.
Plus euzoius excellent comments.
And bonus Hogan’s Heroes and SCTV references…
Love this blog.
I guess that keeping the secretary of state in the loop would be too much to expect. Even with the hollowed out state department it would be better to inject a little sanity into the potential negotiations.
I very much doubt Trump is capable of terrifying Kim. For one thing, it’s hard to be terrified when you’re laughing your ass off.
And the hysterical part is that Trump obviously doesn’t know what “de-nuclearization” means in Kim-speak.
The only thing we should do is encourage South Korea to do whatever they’re doing, and distract Trump. They already have the capability of hitting the west coast, and the only people who are in denial about this are idiots like Lindsey Graham. McMaster and other General Turdgison’s out there are also incredibly dangerous if they assure Trump of our military’s superiority, or “it’ll just be a quick pin prick” or “our missile defenses will shield us if they retaliate”.
The problem with this strategy, as Jeffrey Lewis points out in “The Trump-Kim Summit Won’t End Well”
Nothing will end well until we remove the problem.
All evidence to date suggests both the first proposition and the ongoing non-realization negating the second are perfectly plausible.
Lewis is right about one thing. The easiest thing to do for Japan and South Korea right now is to blow smoke up Trump’s ass. Why piss him off now? There is no reason to. Let them meet in Geneva, Jeju Island(a South Korean island) or some other neutral place. What is their to lose? It’s better than nuclear war breaking out, right?
Quit reading after I read this:
“But let’s at least acknowledge that our president has his strengths and weaknesses…”
Brilliant. The man got himself elected president of the United States but he has zero strengths.
You may not like them, but refusing to admit he has them in a large part of the reason he’s in the position he’s in and we’re in the position we’re in.
Great to hear this from you, Booman.
“Know your enemy,” as Sun Tzu put it.
But…Tien Le above is just following your lead over the past couple of years. Yours and that of the (captive) mainstream media.
Several years from the original mistake? There he is, and he not only hasn’t been “fixed,” he’s survived…and eventually dominated…every attempt to control him.
He’s only a one lick/one kick/one trick pony, but he knows how to use that lick.
A dangerous man.
AG
Arthur, probably the only reason I put up with you through the last election cycle was because you were telling people to be wary of Trump’s appeal and I wasn’t willing to silence the near-lone voice making that point.
Even if it was only five percent of your output, I felt it was worth putting up with the other 95% that was somewhere between obnoxiously wrong and aggressively stupid.
I am sorry that you feel that way, Booman. I remember when you were someone else.
Best of luck in the future.
AG
. . . Specifically, with you becoming “someone else” . . .
. . . not with 95% of ag’s output falling
(Very accurate assessment . . . unless maybe over-generous.)
I don’t fault Arthur for being wounded by my words. Frankly, he’s a victim of my piss pot flowing over from other commenters. And I was unfair to him. It hasn’t just been his warnings about Trump that I valued, but his warnings about U.S. hubris more generally. He wrote presciently about Egypt the year before Mubarak was ousted, for example. I like having a gadfly around, which is why I’ve been protective of Arthur.
I do wish he would vastly improve his hit to miss ratio and also show some signs of growth. Some of his perspective is evergreen, however.
What would you do about Arthur if you didn’t think he had redeeming qualities? Ban him? This doesn’t seem like the kind of place where differences of opinion are shut down. At least as long as they’re offered in a sincere manner rather than simply to cause discord. Say what you will about Arthur, I think it apparent he really believes what he says.
My view is we all have strengths and weaknesses. We may be insightful in one way and blind in another. That’s why we need each other. It’s why communities are so much more effective when there’s trust and good will. Banning Arthur (or most anyone else) would accomplish neither.
As humans, we’re works in progress. In some fundamental sense, we can’t help becoming “someone else” over time unless there is something terribly, horribly wrong going on. I’d hope Booman has changed over the time I’ve read his work and interacted with him. I’d rather hope I’ve changed as well. Life experience has a way of doing that. And yet, we should note that in the process of “becoming someone else” we are nonetheless still recognizable. I’ve gotten into rows with people who have stated “you are not the person I once knew” and all I can think is that I am grateful I am not that same person. Somehow, too many of us expect those we know to remain stable entities when in reality that was never ever going to be the case. We’re going to change. Sometimes those changes are toward growth, sometimes not so much. But change is inevitable. Sorry for going all existentialist here, but that is one of the stable threads of my own life’s journey.
In the meantime, regarding AG: I appreciate the value of a gadfly or two. That said, there is quite a qualitative difference between one who can point out another way of thinking without the insults and abusive language and one who proves incapable of refraining from abusive language and insults. The former gadfly is one I will at least give some attention, and if the evidence is on their side, they’ll stand a chance of changing my mind. The latter will be nothing more than a turnoff. I’m probably being clear as Guinness when my intention is to be as clear as Zima, but hopefully the idea is getting across.
And a stopped clock (nondigital) is right twice a day. Is that any reason to keep it around, cluttering up the place and offering zero worth?
The donald is just letting Kim set us up for endless negotiations to get nukes out of NK. Kim will never give up his nukes. Kim will never allow UN in NK to inspect anything.
I consider it somewhat funny that the elephant in the room is not mentioned: Kim has his atomic weapons to guard himself from US-induced regime change. So the only way he will (potentially) give them up is if he gets lasting assurances from the US that it will not attempt that. The US government will be very leary of giving such assurances, and anyways could probably not be trusted to keep them already with the next government.
I consider it somewhat funny that the elephant in the room is not mentioned: Kim has his atomic weapons to guard himself from US-induced regime change. So the only way he will (potentially) give them up is if he gets lasting assurances from the US that it will not attempt that. The US government will be very leary of giving such assurances, and anyways could probably not be trusted to keep them already with the next government.
Yes, Kim is working from a position of strength.
Bottom line from the link, Kim already has what he needs, a nuclear deterrence, and a method of delivery. All he needs is miniaturization, and he can forgo testing (for now) until he has that. He’s playing, he will NEVER voluntarily give up his weapons, and it’s good odds that, without China getting involved, Korea is now a permanent nuclear power.
While NK might be able to hit the US west coast, it’s important to remember that right this minute, Korean can hit the entirety of China.
.
I think Kim wants the bomb as a deterrence, and not to start a war. He simply can’t win a war with any other nuclear armed country. But he can cause utter devastation. I suspect they also want to sell it or nuclear capability to others, for nuclear power. If he can make Trump look the other way by flattering him he might achieve this goal legally and without sneaking about. He also wants to be seen playing nice for China and Russia. They may even have had a hand in this meeting. Putin, after all, has an in with Trump.
I agree there is no way he will ever give up his bomb short of a direct threat from China or Russia and I don’t see that happening. But, what does he lose to play up to the Orange Turd? OTOH if Trump comes away seen as bully or utterly unreasonable, he cements his ties with his few friends, and that could include SK. Can Trump behave like a normal person? Somehow I doubt it.
. . . very well.
Merely possessing dozens of weapons of mass destruction-related program activities“ gets you invaded, then dangling by your neck from a rope when the U.S.’s dysfunctional pseudo-democracy puts an actual (dubya/Darth Cheney et al.) or wannabe (Trump, duh!) neocon War Criminal in the Oval Office.
Gotta really have the goods.
I read the whole thing, closely, start to finish, eager to learn at long last what purported “strengths” Trump possesses.
Zip. Zilch. Nul. Rien. Nada.
Trump’s strengths are indeed very limited, and I was going to say that he has some but they are not the kind likely to have any effect beyond he borders of the USA.
But that’s not right either. One of Trump’s few strengths is that he appeals to authoritarians, both foreign and domestic — corrupt authoritarians in particular. That description would certainly apply to Kim. But the difference is, Kim, unlike, say, Duterte or Erdogan or Putin, does not hav a good relationship with Trump. Which complicates things.
I suspect that Trump, if he ever does talk to Kim, would probably try to strike some business deal, like a Trump hotel/casino in Pyongyang (for party members only), or a Miss North Korea contest.
However, if Maha is right, all of this is academic, because the whole issue of Trump talking to Kim has been badly misinterpreted — especially by Trump himself.
http://www.mahablog.com/2018/03/10/the-summit-that-wont-happen/
similar objection with, basically: he somehow managed to get himself elected, therefore he must have strengths (though still without specifying any).
Personally, I’m not willing to put the label “strength” on any of Trump’s attributes that he exploited (by appealing to the worst in his eventual supporters) — along with the undemocratic aspects of the Electoral College — to “win” over the candidate who got more votes than he did. I consider all his attributes that he exploited to be, at best, character flaws, not “strengths”; or flat-out evil (e.g., lying like he breathes). IOW “strength” has some positive connotation I don’t think Trump merits, so I’m unwilling to ascribe it to him.
Granting this is more of a personal, moral/aesthetic/philosophical position than a logical argument from precision of language usage, i.e., I’m not claiming booman’s point is “wrong”, just that it’s not persuasive with me. Certainly not without some alleged Trump “strength” being specified, at which point there could be discussion of its validity.
It’s a matter of semantics. Yes, they are certainly character flaws, almost unbelievable in extent.
I suppose you think that “strength” implies a virtue. But we all know that strength can be evil. And in addition, it seems objectionable to call what is really a weakness, a strength.
But Booman meant strength in a purely pragmatic sense — what it allows Trump to accomplish. His accomplishments are largely destructive and self-destructive, but it would also be a mistake to pretend that he’s totally incapable of doing ANYTHING, when we know that’s not true.
Trump is extraordinarily ignorant and incompetent about most things, and we had better be thankful for that, because if he were really the genius he thinks he is, he would be far more dangerous. But on the other hand, he is dangerous enough, and we should not fool ourselves that he has no abilities at all, because that’s not true either. He has the ability to do a tremendous amount of damage, and he’s doing it.
He’s certainly got a high degree of skill at picking venal, incompetent subordinates. Exhibit A: his cabinet.
Moon Jae-in met with Kim jun un. And Moon Jae-in met with Donald Trump. In the normal course of things, this announcement to meet in the next three months with whom? 1? 2? or 3? leaders would not be a major event except for the US denying recognition and treaties sixty-five years without condititions. Or the absence of the South Koreans meeting without conditions. Or the North Koreans not willing to meet at all.
The conditions frequently were a matter of either the US or South Korea when there was the possibility that North Korea wanted something. In the US, it was a domestic political game not to negotiate with the North Koreans. George W. Bush and Dick Cheney were so full of themselves after Clinton and Gore that they did not see what Clinton did with the IAEA in North Korea. And the Republican and hawk Congress did not see what Obamaa and Kerry did with Russia and Syria with Syria’s chemical weapons. For Trump to do anything that constructive, he is either sensitive to the business deals in both North and South Korea (me neither), having someone in an Asian country really believing he would open pre-emptive nuclear–Or he will have to play the MAGA President of the United States while all the while taking directions from the only allied Korean who understand the culture. Watch to see if Moon jae-in has any talents with orange-headed ventriliquist’s dummies and high diplomacy.
The failure of US policy in Korea has been the failure to listen to either Koreans. And eagerness to listen to Japanese nationalists.
And then there was the public finally being rid of Syngman Rhee and Chung Hee Park. While the public’s relatives were going between family visits in North and South Kore between 1998 and 2008, an youth internee in a North Korean prison escaped to China and then to the US and wrote in 2001 The Aquariums of Pyongyang and in 2005 The Policy of Eclipse. What is remarkable about these books are they are remarkably timed to the Bush-Gore election and the Bush-Kerry election. Even the rescue of the young man from a North Korean prison seems to have a grandfather prisoner who ran afoul of the North Korean Government and took the grandkid along with him. That grandkid published at 33 and is now 50. There is no information about whether Trump has been briefed by him.
The North Korean gambit runs between a sunshine policy (Moon jae-in), a hotel, resort, or other emolument (Trump Tower), and a massive nuclear-armed military. How eager do you think the North Korean people are for being in a military instead of a society. Kim jun un does know what a society shepherded by military security (at least for personal him) looks like. Nikita Khrushchev wanted to go to Disneyland. Wonder where Kim wants a Presidential vacation?
Moreover, how does Kim come to agreement with Moon jae-in? That might be of more consequence for the future relations in East Asia. If Korea is reconciled without nuclear weapons, that work will be between Moon and Kim. With Trump at hand, one or both of the two of them can allow Congress to know that the US is still in the Republic of Korea at the ROK’s invitation. Phillippines took the US to task when the US got too occupying and asked the US to leave Subic Bay thanks to the eruption of Mount Pinutabu.
Every other result of a Kim-Trump-Moon diplomacy than this is trivial.
The big question is, what happens when Trump realizes Kim has played him for a fool? Seems the best case scenario is that he never catches on.
Moon will not let Kim play Trump for a complete fool unless it is in the interest of South Korea.
Moon can wait so long as the peninsula is denuclearized.
My thought on the possibility of a summit is it’s all very unpredictable because Trump is supremely unpredictable (even more so than Kim). Kim’s an obvious autocrat and a really noxious excuse for a human being, but it’s not clear he’s insane. The jury’s out on that. It’s very clear that Trump is unhinged. The result is not predictable.
Donald Trump and his team of incompetent sycophants are wholly unqualified to deal with North Korea. Believing that you can blindly accept an invitation to a summit with Kim-Jong un without understanding the issues involved or politics of the region is unacceptable. Then following the storm of criticism and questions about why that was agreed to the White House starts to set preconditions. To believe for one second that the North will give up or surrender its nuclear arsenal is pure fantasy. It’s those vary weapons that insure the survival of Kim’s government. Without them they’re nothing. Just another backwater country with nothing to offer.
Donald Trump has strengths: They include bullying, lying, being bombastic and narcissistic. If you think those are actually strengths needed to negotiate with North Korea you’d better stop and rethink that.
All this fooferaw about North Korea, which simply concluded it needed a proper deterrent to further U.S. attacks. I refer to it obviously having strong memories of losing about 28% of its population to U.S. bombing in the 50’s after resisting unprovoked invading armies…and no peace treaty following.
Meanwhile, back at the ranch, a U.S. sometimes ‘ally’ is doing something much scarier than tests. http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/pakistan-has-just-tested-the-ultimate-nuclear-missile-2483
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