I feel fairly confident that the Democratic electorate in 2020 is not going to nominate a banker from the centrist branch of the party who preaches national unity. But Rep. John Delaney of Maryland is right about one thing. If he is going to have any chance at all, he needs to get in early, boost his name recognition, build his team, and make some friends. That he has already campaigned in dozens of Iowa counties is a sign that he’s serious in a way I never really felt that Bernie Sanders was in 2014 and 2015.
He’s also got a very sane basic plan.
Delaney left South Carolina on Saturday to speak at a Democratic summit in Maryland, then planned, as he does every Monday, to convene a staff meeting in Washington to plot campaign strategy for the week. He is focused almost exclusively on Iowa and New Hampshire.
“I view us as running a full scale campaign at this point,” Delaney said. “The way I think about it kind of simply is, there are six congressional districts in Iowa and New Hampshire … I’m doing all the things you would do to run a congressional campaign times six in those states.”
Winning either of the first two presidential nominating contests is a giant job for anyone, but breaking it down into six bite-sized missions is a very sensible way to approach the challenge.
People will say that members of the House simply don’t win party nominations, let alone the presidency. And that’s true. You have to go back to James Garfield to find a president elected from the House of Representatives. But it’s not the elected office he holds that will be the biggest obstacle for him. His problem will be that Hillary Clinton was known as a ruthless political knife fighter and she wasn’t tough enough to beat Donald Trump. Democrats are going to be looking for someone who can stand toe to toe with the Republican nominee and give better than they get. They won’t be eager to listen to platitudes about bringing the country together and working across the aisle.
Aside from that, it’s always tough for centrists to win over party purists, unless they can win substantial institutional support from within the leadership of the party. So, while progressive candidates are usually “the alternative” in Democratic presidential primaries, that’s because they can’t solve the electability problem. A candidate as far to the right as Delaney can’t easily win endorsements or gain approval from more mainstream Democratic lawmakers and organizations. In other words, he’ll have the same basic problem faced by precursors like Bill Bradley, Howard Dean, and Bernie Sanders, but you can add to it that he will lack the passionate and committed supporters those candidates had working for them.
A candidate like Delaney will always be a more plausible general election candidate than he could ever be as a party champion.
However, in order to give himself a chance, he needs to do things he is doing now. There will be an audience that likes what he’s saying and if the national mood develops just the right way, the electorate may be emerging from such a bruising fight that it’s in the mood for someone who can perform in a reconciliatory role.
I don’t like his odds but after 2016, I can’t discount him entirely either.
Delaney is the congressman from Maryland’s sixth district, which is a ridiculously gerrymandered district that bundles ALL of western Maryland (rural and Republican) with just enough western Montgomery County (DC bedroom suburbs) to make a majority Dem district. He literally has NO constituency – the western part of his district hates having a DC-suburban guy as their representative, and the suburbanites who actually voted him in were just voting for a generic dem- they would rather be in Jamie Raskin’s 8th district.
PS- if you want a laugh, take a look at Maryland’s 3d district, the most gerrymandered district in the country.
The gerrymandering of Maryland’s congressional districts is something I’ve been following since 2016, when I posted PBS Newshour examines gerrymandering in Maryland and North Carolina at my personal blog. I also used it as an example of how proportional representation can solve gerrymandering. Based on those posts and your comments, I wouldn’t be surprised if Delaney’s district disappears from under him after the Supreme Court rules on the cases concerning gerrymandering in both Maryland and Wisconsin. He may be looking for an escape hatch (Vice President) or a way to improve his chances in the next iteration of his district, which will likely be a lot less friendly to him. I’m not optimistic about his prospects for either.
He’s using this effort to raise his profile for some other purpose. Replace Steny, possibly?
The House Democratic leadership is Biden-literally on its gun lap. So, raised profile for 2020, courtesy VP consideration at convention? Leadership role of some sort in the House in 2021? Something else down the road?
You never get anything if you don’t try for something.
In my view he has no chance. None, zero, nada.
James Garfield was nominated in a very different time and place. Back then, the party chose the candidate and Garfield became the consensus candidate in a crowded field after several ballots were deadlocked. He was universally seen and respected for his personal integrity. In other words, he was the kind of candidate everyone claims to want but who rarely gains traction in this day and age.
Had he lived longer, I think Garfield may have been one of our great presidents. Ironically, his successor, Chester Arthur, who was a party hack who grew rich off his status as a reliable cog in a corrupt machine, turned out to be far more reform minded than anyone expected. Having succeeded Garfield, he felt a need to be a better man than he had previously been. As a result, he turned on those who had maneuvered him into the vice presidency.
Could you be passionate about a candidate like him?
I’ve never heard him speak but of one thing I am-sadly-commpletely convinced: the person with the most charisma almost always wins. Does this guy have it?
Based on this, and that one Maddow interview, I’ve concluded that Eric Holder is a non-starter.
I wish the electorate weren’t so shallow, but they are. Sadly, the new Kennedy didn’t seem to have as much charisma as I’d hoped. But anyway, that’s my approach to 2020 – absolutely rule out anyone who doesn’t have the “it” factor and then pick the left-most from the small pool that remains. So far no one’s in it and only Kamala hasn’t ruled herself out. I mean – Bernie yes, but he’s so old.
Booman- can’t you code it so we can edit so we don’t look like idiots who can’t spell?
I have watched some of the Netflix series Dirty Money.
https://www.netflix.com/title/80118100
In the episode on HSBC, I found Holder to not have done the right thing, along with other deputies in the DoJ.
I was disappointed in learning his role.
It’s going to have to be Oprah.
Make your peace with it now.
Nah. I’m going with Stephen Colbert. Good as anybody else I’ve heard recently. But who knows maybe Cory Booker and his job guarantee.
You joke, but Oprah is Cicero compared to Trump.
” the person with the most charisma almost always wins”
Much of that is manufactured consent by the media. Gore is much more charismatic than Bush. However, in 2000 Gore was playing by Clinton rules so he had be portrayed as a serial liar. The other thing I noticed is how few interviews W did compared to his father and Dole. HIs team did a great job keeping him away from the press and the press did a fantastic job of not noticing it, never pointing it out, and never punishing him for it.
Well, he does not have a comb over and has a wife and children have genuine smiles for the camera….they look happy. If this image, that is the complete opposite of the donald, what you are looking for…this is the candidate. We need candidates who possess the verbal skills to shut the donald down. I do not mean to get down in the gutter with him but demonstrate that he is in and from the gutter.
What we need is a reform minded candidate that will inspire Democrats and independents to show up to vote because the Democratic party is committed to enacting policies that will make their lives better. Trump voters could care less about how far in the gutter Trump is, and in in fact making the professional elite class cringe in disgust at his gutterness is part of Trump’s appeal to them.
I have the internet, so I know the important thing is “no canckles”. Also, no experience, no party backing, no money, and no sense of humor.Y chromosomes are nice, but not absolutely necessary.
To fix politics:
Get the parties out of politics.
Get the politicians out of politics.
Get the politics out of politics.
Then the true will of the people will spontaneously express itself, through organic, emergent, continuously-renewing, non-heirarchic structures.
I mean, did the 60’s teach us nothing?
Trotskyist to the core.
Preach ON!!!
He’s welcome to run but if he’s gonna win me over he has his fucking head in the ground.
If this guy is the candidate, Strongman Trump wins.
Yeah, I contributed to his first House run (because Democrat) but I didn’t intend it as fuel for a presidential bid. Color me unenthusiastic.
“That he has already campaigned in dozens of Iowa counties is a sign that he’s serious in a way I never really felt that Bernie Sanders was in 2014 and 2015.”
Small detail, I know, but there’s also this: Hillary Clinton does not appear to be a lock for 2020.
Barack Obama spent 8 years trying to reach across the aisle to pass bipartisan legislation and was shut down every time. And when the Republicans took control of all three branches of government, they immediately tried to burn down everything that the Democrats had built over the last 70 years.
I don’t know much about Delaney, but I’m sure that the millions marching in the streets against Trump and his Republican party aren’t going to rally to the side of anyone selling a “bipartisan” or “centrist” agenda.