I follow politics closer than the average person, but I still can’t say that I have more than a superficial understanding of the politics of all fifty states. For example, if I want to know why Phil Bredesen has a chance to win a U.S. Senate seat in Tennessee but Dave Freudenthal of Wyoming isn’t running for a U.S. Senate seat in Wyoming and probably wouldn’t have a chance in hell if he did, then I have to do some research. Both men, during the last decade, were popular two-term Democratic governors in blood red states. Yet, it’s Bredesen who has made the plunge and has been leading Rep. Marsha Blackburn in recent polls.
On the House side, the Democrats are at long last taking my advice and running hard in rural districts, and it’s beginning to look like there’s some hope on the Senate side, too. There’s even talk that Lincoln City Council member Jane Raybould might make a real contest out of Sen. Deb Fischer’s reelection bid in Nebraska. I have to admit that I didn’t see that coming.
The Democrats were disappointed that both Evan Bayh and Russ Feinstein lost their bids to rejoin the Senate. Had they won, the Democrats would have had a majority during the first Congress of Trump’s presidency. But the voters weren’t in the mood to go back in time, and the skills and strategies that Bayh and Feinstein had used to be successful candidates in the past did not translate to our new era of politics. It’s possible that Bredesen will meet a similar fate. But it’s also possible that we’re in a completely different cycle and the people of Tennessee will swing like a pendulum toward the kind of non–ideological stylings that Bredesen is offering.
I can’t say that the former Volunteer State governor is using my playbook. He appears to be pursuing a classic Blue Dog strategy of presenting a business-friendly profile while criticizing the national Democratic Party at every turn. It may work since the Republican establishment in Tennessee is beginning to show the same kind of splits that we’ve seen in states like Kansas where moderates are willing to crossover to elect or vote with Democrats to marginalize the hard right. We don’t see the same kinds of fissures in places like Wyoming, and however radical Senator Barrasso’s voting record might be, he isn’t unpopular or controversial at home in the same way that Deb Fischer of Nebraska and Marsha Blackburn appear to be.
It’s definitely more difficult for Democrats to win federal than statewide office in red states, just as it’s easier for the Republicans to win gubernatorial races in places like Vermont, Massachusetts and Maryland than it is for them to compete for Senate seats in those states. That’s why it was a bigger upset when Doug Jones won Jeff Sessions’s seat in Alabama than when John Bel Edwards replaced Bobby Jindal in Louisiana.
Control of the Senate may turn on whether Democratic candidates can make breakthroughs in places where they’ve been doing very poorly of late. Tennessee and Nebraska weren’t considered promising places to pick up Senate seats when this cycle began. The Democrats could potentially beat Ted Cruz in Texas and one of the two seats up for election in Mississippi. On the other hand, they could blow what look like promising opportunities to win seats in Arizona and Nevada or even see a bunch of their incumbents fall in Trump states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, North Dakota, Missouri, West Virginia, and Florida.
It’s too early to forecast the Senate elections, but the map is expanding in a way that is unfavorable to the Republicans. They never thought Tennessee would be in play and it most definitely is going to be a competitive race. I just wish Bredesen was offering something a little newer and fresher rather than running almost exclusively on a good record that he compiled in a different era that feels like it might as well have been decades ago.
Russ Feingold, no?
As a resident of one and a former resident of the other, I don’t foresee any problems at all for Stabenow or Baldwin and don’t understand why you listed those states. Especially for Stabenow polls don’t show any of her opponents as even close, and I’d say the same for Baldwin.
I’m worried about Baldwin. She’s a one-term senator who won by a very small margin in 2012. Since we won’t know her opponent until August, there aren’t any meaningful polls out. Almost from the day after the 2016 election, though, there have been negative ads running against her. I think she belongs on the list of vulnerable Democratic incumbents.
I know of only two competitors; Vukmiris a Teatard lunatic and the other (I think Nicholson?) is being attacked for switching from Democrat to GOP and because his parents are big Dem contributors. Are there others? Of course the state also gifted us with Glen Grothmann, Walker, and Ron Johnson, so who knows?
Those are the two so far, Leah Vukmir and Kevin Nicholson. I think the filing deadline is June 1, so it’s possible someone else will enter the race. It doesn’t seem like a very strong field. But, then again, Ron Johnson seemed like a joke to me also.
I can’t say that the former Volunteer State governor is using my playbook. He appears to be pursuing a classic Blue Dog strategy of presenting a business-friendly profile while criticizing the national Democratic Party at every turn. It may work …
It may work in the short-term but long-term it’s a disaster.
Tennessee has historically been home to moderate politicians, both Republican and Democratic. It may seem strange in a state as red as it currently is on the national plane, but if you look at the pattern over the years (think Howard Baker), it is perhaps more clear. The northeastern part of the state (i.e. Appalachian territory) is extremely conservative and fully capable of doing crazy things like voting down a state income tax every time the issue comes up, but that’s not true of the elites in Nashville, Chattanooga, Memphis and even Knoxville. Ever since I’ve been paying attention to the state (around 1991 or so), the governorship has alternated between a moderate Democrat and a moderate Republican. Bob Corker won the Senate race against Harold Ford in 2006 by only 3 points. So I think it is an error to characterize Bredesen as having embraced a Blue Dog playbook. He’s just being the moderate he’s always been, in a system that encourages moderates.
I agree with your analysis. I’ve a sister who lives in the state and have told her that her state is considerably more moderate than this one just south of it. There was also a family named Gore that came from the state. And Lamar Alexander, Also Marsha Blackburn, sadly.
“I follow politics closer than the average person, but I still can’t say that I have more than a superficial understanding of the politics of all fifty states. For example, if I want to know why Phil Bredesen has a chance to win a U.S. Senate seat in Tennessee but Dave Freudenthal of Wyoming isn’t running for a U.S. Senate seat in Wyoming and probably wouldn’t have a chance in hell if he did, then I have to do some research. Both men, during the last decade, were popular two-term Democratic governors in blood red states. Yet, it’s Bredesen who has made the plunge and has been leading Rep. Marsha Blackburn in recent polls.”Booman
Uh, Tennessee is an open seat and Wyoming has an incumbent that got 74% in his last election? Is it really that hard to figure out the difference in the situations?