I understand the line Rep. Adam Schiff is trying to walk in his New York Times editorial this morning. The impeachment of a president is a weighty prospect and when necessary it requires the greatest possible consensus. If it is seen as politically motivated or an attempt to nullify an election, it not only can be harmful to the country but it might even prevent the president’s party from doing what the facts morally obligate them to do. For these reasons, the Democrats would be wise to treat any possible impeachment as hypothetical rather than as a campaign promise. They should stand ready to do what is necessary, but they should also await a full airing of the facts before they prejudge the remedies. And, to be frank, there’s some political self-interest involved in the Democrats taking a wait-and-see position, since the Republicans are attempting to make a rush-to-judgment or election-nullification case to their base as a method of motivating them to turnout in the midterms.
Schiff is the ranking member of the House Intelligence Committee and he is well aware of how much incriminating evidence has already been gathered on the president, his associates, and his campaign. Nonetheless, he wisely counsels caution and patience for reasons that span everything from an interest in national unity to simple pragmatism to partisan electoral strategy.
But things are perhaps more difficult that this. If you look at the Articles of Impeachment that the House Judiciary Committee adopted on July 27th, 1974, you’ll notice that there is nothing in there to suggest that either of the presidential campaign victories that Nixon enjoyed were illegitimate.
In part, this was because Congress did not yet have the evidence to prove that Nixon had actively worked to scuttle peace talks in Vietnam during the 1968 campaign. In part, it was because his 1972 victory had been so decisive that no one could plausibly argue that anything underhanded that Nixon did during that campaign was necessary for his victory.
At the time, the reasons for removing Nixon from office had nothing to do with the integrity of his elections or whether or not he should have ever assumed the presidency in the first place. Trump’s case is different.
While the third-rate burglary of the Watergate headquarters of the Democratic National Committee did not produce damaging information that harmed George McGovern’s prospects of victory, the Russians’ electronic burglary of the Democratic National Committee was almost definitely a decisive factor in the 2016 election. With an election so close that it was decided by a narrow margin of votes in three states, you can point to a long list of things that were consequential enough to have changed the outcome. Some of those things can be laid right on the door of Hillary Clinton and her strategists, like the decision not to campaign at all in Wisconsin. But absent the leaks from the Russians, it’s highly doubtful that Donald Trump would have won.
At the beginning of this investigation, it was a strictly a matter of counterintelligence. On the routine level, we needed to know if members of Trump’s campaign were putting themselves in a position to be blackmailed. On a more nefarious level, we needed to know if people around Trump were making promises to the Russians in return for assistance with the campaign. Some of the information that was collected was alarming enough to turn a counterintelligence investigation into a criminal investigation, meriting FISA warrants and other surveillance.
When Trump unexpectedly won, there were two immediate problems. One was that it looked probable that his incoming National Security Advisor was compromised by the Russians, at best, and actively working as their agent at worst. There was also extremely concerning information on former campaign chairman Paul Manafort and his deputy Rick Gates. And the intelligence community had evidence that members of Trump’s campaign, including some of his foreign policy advisors, had been in direct contact with Russian intelligence and had been tipped off about the DNC hacks. We were going to swear in a president who could be exposed by the Russians at any time and who had a long list of subordinates who were subject to blackmail.
That created one form of national security risk and illegitimacy. The other one was the legitimacy of the election itself. There was evidence that the Russians had hacked into election databases. It did not appear that they had gained the ability to change the actual tallies of votes, but that needed to be thoroughly investigated. But what was more certain is that they had engaged in wide-ranging influence campaign that, given the closeness of the election, had probably cost Hillary Clinton a victory.
This is why this controversy is more serious than Watergate. It’s more comparable to Nixon’s decision to tell the South Vietnamese to delay making a peace deal with the North Vietnamese before the 1968 election. President Lyndon Johnson called Nixon’s move “treason,” and it certainly wound up costing a lot of people, including Americans, their lives. Concern about his treachery being exposed probably played no small part in Nixon’s later criminal activities once in office. He had definitely handed the South Vietnamese government some leverage against him, although they were too dependent on America to seriously contemplate using it. Russia doesn’t have the same limitations, and their leverage against the president is ongoing and will be perpetual until he is removed from office.
If people had known what Nixon had done to assure himself victory in 1968, they would have considered it grounds for removal far more compelling than anything that was contained in his actual articles of impeachment. And that’s precisely because it implicated the legitimacy of his election. Once a president is legitimately elected, there’s always an argument that the people should take the responsibility for punishing his bad behavior by voting him out of office. That’s certainly preferable to Congress having to take on that responsibility.
In the case where the election was illegitimate, however, we have to consider the importance of future deterrence. We don’t want candidates for office thinking they can become president by enlisting a foreign power to commit burglaries against their political opponents. We also can’t leave the application of justice to the voters. If the voters reelect a criminal president, then not only do the crimes go unpunished but crime is rewarded and entrenched.
As a practical and political matter, the Democrats should heed Schiff’s advice and not go around campaigning on the promise to remove Trump from office. And they should absolutely wait to hear the entire case against him before prejudging how they’d vote on hypothetical articles of impeachment. There’s good reason not to act like removal is the result they wanted all along or that they’re trying to nullify the 2016 election.
But, in reality, we have a president who is compromised by the Russians and who is only president because of their illegal assistance. Even if he were otherwise competent, these factors would make his removal justified and urgent. The way to get consensus on this is not to argue the case, as I have been doing. Consensus will come, to the degree that it will ever come, from the presentation of the evidence.
For people who have been following this closely, there is no doubt that the evidence will be shocking and compelling. And that’s why no one needs to make any promises or commitments. When the time comes for elected Democrats to make the case, we will all know it. In the meantime, the rest of us can and should say what we want.
There is no doubt an element of vindication that Dems are seeking, an element of revenge, an element of fear. But as powerful as those elements are we really don’t have the luxury of indulging them.
Like it or not, the era of Trump has taken us beyond politics, tribalism or even last resorts like impeachment.
Evidence will likely arrive that blows everyone’s mind. But that won’t be a time for emotion, it will be a time for cold, hard tactics and strategies that don’t even whisper things like the anti Trump campaign. There’s won’t be any time for being anti Trump, there will only be the necessity to start repairing what he has burned down.
I would say what they have burned down, i.e., the Repugnicans. They have been relentlessly driving us in this direction for half a century. T. Ronald Dump is such a spectacular clusterfµ¢k that it’s easy to forget this. We hear endlessly that numerous Repugnican politicians are too frightened of their nutzoid base to stand up to him. That narrative is polite; it gives them cover. The problem is, it doesn’t account adequately for their collective ever-intensifying efforts to destroy democratic institutions. They have worked hard over the last half century or so to drag us here.
* The president has repeatedly and vocally called for prosecution of his political rivals.
* He has called for violence against people who criticize him, remembering the days when protesters would be “carried out on stretchers”, and saying “Go ahead and punch someone in the face and I’ll pay your legal bills”.
* Kushner was literally caught on tape trying to set up a secret back-channel through the Russian embassy to avoid getting overheard by U.S. intelligence agencies.
* His son, son-in-law, and campaign manager had multiple meetings with Russian agents, strategizing about the campaign.
* He has bragged about getting billion dollar offers from foreigners since the election. “I didn’t have to turn it down, because as you know I have a no conflict situation because I’m president”.
* You can pay him to be in the room as he meets with foreign leaders at Mar-a-Lago.
* He named a foreign agent to be his National Security Advisor, and when he was warned by the acting Attorney General of the risk of blackmail, he fired her instead.
* He asked the FBI director for a personal pledge of loyalty and urged him to arrest journalists who published leaks against him. When he was rebuffed, he fired him.
These are some of the things we already know. If your mind isn’t already blown, it’s never going to be.
Oh I’m pretty sure we’ve all seen a rolling mind blowing series of events. But I’m also convinced we ain’t seen nothing yet compared to what Mueller is going to roll out.
In my opinion, the better word instead of “will likely” arrive, is “might.” A very large number of people are completely convinced that “will likely” means “has.” It is likely that Mueller has evidence against Manafort and Page and Gates and Flynn and many other people, but we won’t know for sure until their trials have been concluded. I see far too many people demanding impeachment who think they know crimes have been committed, but they have no evidence, just claims from hysterical partisans. I’m looking forward to the suit by the DNC. It is likely some evidence will emerge from that, but pointing the other way. The DNC is not subject to a process called disclosure. In my opinion, not shared by many, I admit, there has never been any evidence disclosed to the public that the Russians engaged in hacking the DNC computers. The report from Crowdstrike, bought by the DNC, is not solid. Anyway, I believe Mueller is going to find lots of evidence of law breaking, but it’s up to the Senate to decide if these constitute “high crimes and misdemeanors.”
. . . to a process called disclosure.”
As a party to the lawsuit, why not?
I hope you are right and that all, or at least enough, of the evidence will come out in time. But right now the Republicans in congress do not show any indication that they will make sure of that. It’s pretty obvious that the move to terminate the investigation and suppress the results is coming, and soon. How do you know it won’t succeed?
I think it’s already underway and Steve over at his NMMN blog laid out that case yesterday. I’m hoping that Booman has a more positive take for us.
http://nomoremister.blogspot.com/2018/05/if-law-and-facts-are-against-you.html#disqus_thread
I keep saying the same thing, which is that a criminal investigation is a criminal investigation (whether it’s uniformed police officers or the Justice Department) and it doesn’t matter what “mood” people are in or how “sick of” it people get or how anyone “feels” about it.
I think the country’s about to realize this.
Right, but the point is the president can start firing DoJ officials until he gets to one who will can Mueller and quash the investigation; and the Republicans in congress will allow that.
I don’t understand your point. A criminal investigation does not necessarily find truth. Look at the Central Park Five. Look at how many innocent people the Innocence Project get exonerated. Prosecutorial discretion means prosecutors get to interpret the investigation any way they please, and we see a lot of prosecutors lying (police officers, too) just to get a conviction, and sometimes losing a case through overcharging. It doesn’t look (yet) like Mueller is going to commit either fault, but we’re still a long way from the conclusion of his investigation.
Fortunately out here in the aether we can talk about impeachment all we want. I think some reps (Watters for instance) are right to discuss it too, if it works in their constituencies, but for those with direct responsibilities like Schiff or Nadler (who will be running the case if the Democrats take the House), the caution is the right thing, no matter how frustrating it feels.
This doesn’t look good:
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/04/mueller-challenged-manafort-case-568935
Here is what CNN is reporting:
So here is my question: If this judge does what he is signaling, is it possible to appeal his action?
. . . alas.
Aside from appeal option, is there an earlier legal remedy — e.g., change of judge/venue — available on the basis of the open hostility/lack of impartiality the judge has now displayed?
I know that happens sometimes.
I don’t know where the bar is set for it, or whether it’s even an option in this case.
Is there a lawyer in the house?
This judge is obviously doing his part in the partisan political effort to spare Trump at all costs. Surely he knows what he complains about is not unusual, prosecutors do this all the time, squeezing lower level suspects to go up the chain and get after higher ups who may have been involved. If anything, media stories should be written with that WTF in mind.
Lawyers I follow, people like Renato Mariotti don’t seem too concerned.
https://twitter.com/renato_mariotti
Keep cool.
Seems like Nancy Pelosi took impeachment off the table some time ago. She’s pretty savvy. So those idiots who feel compelled to trash her in their campaigns are doing little else than displaying their own political lack of experience. I’m with you, BooMan…no talk about impeachment unless and until the DOJ refers charges. Dems need to be above the fray. The high road here is ‘innocent until proven guilty’.
I agree that Pelosi is very savvy. I really, really hate her alliance with the Clintonistas in the DNC, but she has been responsible for the (few) victories the Democrats have scraped out since 2006.
How can the Democrats claim to be serious about national security if they fail to pound Trump and the Republicans for putting Putin in this position of power he now holds over the United States? Isn’t national security supposed to trump (so to speak) political concerns? I seem to remember it being that way before the world went completely stupid.
Well, seems like the dems have a issue to run with right now. Our trade team in China is coming home with no deal.
>>Isn’t national security supposed to trump (so to speak) political concerns?
ha ha, nice one. Democrats are continually lectured about getting in line with shitty Republican policies because security, and they nearly always fall for it.
No Republican has EVER played by those rules.
The Democratic Party needs to work on the security of our national elections. We have lost two elections by suspicious activities by the Republicans. I am for getting rid of the electoral college. But, if there are simpler ways to achieve honest and fair elections, we need to put them in law. In the states of Washington and Oregon, we vote by mail. While it isn’t state of the art, it works and works well. I do not want to see any more stolen elections. If there is an appearance of a stolen election, we need mechanisms to legally challenge them and keep the candidate from office.
Same here in Colorado.
Keeping in mind that the Republicans are already threatening impeachment against Rod Rosenstein for allowing the Mueller investigation, I have no patience for the argument that Democrats shouldn’t even utter the word without having full buy-in from Republican party officials.
Republicans will not do “what the facts morally obligate them to do”. They will do whatever they can get away with to stay in power.