Probably the hardest task I have as a political analyst is trying to understand what goes on inside the conservative bubble and how Republican lawmakers experience pressure from their own base. On the surface, it seems like the president made a blunder when he decided to mock Dr. Christine Blasey Ford Tuesday night at a campaign rally in Mississippi. It earned rebukes from the three most critical Republican senators Trump needs to see Brett Kavanaugh confirmed to the Supreme Court. From the outside, it looks like Trump both angered them and made it more politically difficult for them to take his side.
But maybe that’s wrong. In ramping up the battle against Dr. Ford, the president is rallying Republicans to the fight which means that the cost of opposing Kavanaugh grows higher than ever for how a Republican is perceived among their own voters. And maybe these senators don’t want to be pariahs in Republican circles and that drives them at least as much as any political considerations.
The three senators are all in an unusual situation in their own way. Sen. Jeff Flake of Arizona had already been all but excommunicated before the Kavanaugh battle began, and he is not seeking reelection because he probably could not have survived a Republican primary challenge. If he cares about how Republicans feel about him at this point, he’s probably fighting a lost cause. He’ll be a hero to some regardless, but a lot of Republicans who hate Trump still want to see their lifelong dream of a conservative movement majority on the Supreme Court fulfilled. I think Flake is worried about those folks above all.
Lisa Murkowski of Alaska has already suffered the indignity of losing a Republican primary, but she managed to bounce back by running a successful write-in campaign. She doesn’t necessarily need a solid Republican base behind her to continue to win reelection. Still, she is from a Republican family and she has so far resisted abandoning the party. It’s possible that this conflict could move her away from the GOP permanently but that’s a decision she’s probably reluctant to make.
Susan Collins of Maine comes from a state that likes to elect independent governors and senators, and it’s split down the middle between a Clinton-Supporting south and a Trump-supporting north. She wins by casting herself as a moderate Republican, and this is testing her like she’s never been tested before. Voting for Kavanaugh will cause some severe erosion of her brand and pretty much destroy her pretense of being pro-choice, but opposing Kavanaugh will cause severe damage with the base she needs to survive in a Blueish state. It’s a no-win situation, so she may ultimately make her decision on conscience. Still, perhaps she thinks more about how the vote will affect her social life among Republican peers than how it will impact her political future.
I confess that I just have trouble thinking like these folks, so it’s very hard for me to predict what they’ll ultimately react to Trump’s disgraceful attacks on Dr. Ford. Maybe it sickens and angers them but it’s still the most effective way to get them in line.
It’s all a show. If you watched the crowd behind Trump during that rally, you’d have seen them cheering, gesturing, waving their arms. They love him, they love it when he insults people, especially women. He just reinforced their loyalty and their votes.
The FBI investigation was a show as well. The FBI can’t do any investigation without a written directive from the president, which he never produced. They couldn’t add any witness testimony to the case because they couldn’t interview any new witnesses.
The Republicans cover all of the bases. They went into this believing Kavanaugh was a shoo-in, but when they ran into trouble, they scrambled to fix it. They ran the numbers and they figured out how to beat the Democrats again. Flake is a puppet. Collins and Murkowski are props who always seem like they could flip, but they back down.
We haven’t been able to match the Republican’s tricks. We have to know how to do it before November midterms.
Flake won’t be persuaded by anything Trump says or doesn’t say; they hate each other. The only reaal question is how much internaal integrity he has, which is unknown except to him. As for Murkowski and Collins, if either one of them expects to have a future in the Senate when their terms come up, they will be in really big trouble no matter how they vote. They may have both voted to save Obamacare but, if Kav is approved, allmost all government regulation is out the window, probably starting with Obamacare. This is quite aside from the issue of Roe vs. Wade, which I think will be ruled to be a state matter. (They both claim to be pro choice.)
So I hope all three are thinking of the llong train of cases that will quickly come before the Court (probably via the 5h Circuit) that will destroy most government protections.
So I don’t know, obviously but I don’t think it’s a done deal either.
. . . at least hints McConnell doesn’t (yet?) have the votes.
2) Pretty sure there was a written presidential (or at least WH) directive. Believe heard reported that Dems requested it be released but (shocking, I know!) it wasn’t.
Trump is notably the FBI’s client so it’s not too much of a stretch to think that he will be the first to see their report. I doubt the report was completed by the time he spoke at the rally but he may have had some kind of a heads up.
His effort to try and turn the tables to make the argument that boys are in danger of facing consequences for their boys will be boys actions and that if Dr. Ford is the leader of that loss can only mean he’s trying to say that if Kavanaugh isn’t seated then boys will never be safe again in America to mistreat women.
If that’s his argument and Senators allow Ford’s accusations to be misused as a tool to distract from Kavanaugh’s obvious lacking in judicial temperment then SCOTUS is lost.
They never fear any attacks from the Left because they have never suffered as a result of insulting or alienating moderates or liberals. Rather the reverse.
So, someone like Murkowski or Collins doesn’t really worry about alienating independents, she’s much more worried about not supporting the party. No matter how many women come forward and plead with her to “do the right thing” the only right thing for her is to stick with her party.
This forces her into the act of being a total hypocrite and making ridiculous bleating protests “I wish he wouldn’t do that!” when you know perfectly well, Trump is just doing what Trump always does. It’s always worked for him, so why not? Tell the bleating moderates to shut up and get in line!
As of right now, Trump can say whatever he wants, and no matter how outrageous it is, he never suffers anything as a result. That calculation can all change in November.
But, we need to make it happen by destroying the GOP in the elections. Right now we have a about an 80% chance of doing just that, but it needs to be 100%.
They need to know absolutely, that if they cross the majority on issues relating to human rights, we will eliminate them from office. And we need to be able to do that all over the country, not just in Vermont or CT.
This is a very good comment, but I have one issue.
Collins is not so much a hypocrite, she is more a liar. She votes the way she votes because she believes in the policies she votes for. It amazes me that virtually everyone buys into this media myth. In many ways she is just like McCain, in that he built this image of a moderate by giving free BBQ to the media, when he was just another low tax, end social programs, take women’s agency away Republican. And that is exactly what Collins is.
Collins is NOT `pro-choice’, she is absolutely `pro-life’ AND `anti-birth control’. I know this, for a fact, because throughout her career she has voted for EVERY SINGLE SC JUSTICE that wants to take reproductive control from women…….particularly poor women of color.
She is a blatant liar. Now in this case she might vote `no’ because the political price might be too high. But then we will get another nominee whom hold the EXACT SAME positions as Kavanaugh and she will run, sprint even, to pull the lever.
“Never listen to what a person says, watch what they do. Because their actions are what tells you whom they really are.”
.
Shorter “nalbar”: It’s the “revealed preferences”! Don’t look at what she -says- she wants; look at what she DOES!
And I agree 100% She’s a master-class bullshitter.
Murkowski won her write-in campaign with major backing from Native Americans, numerous in AK.
Kavanaugh has a track record that makes him toxic to Native Americans, Murkowski is being pressured by a key constituency.
Plus, that ludicrous sentence handed down in the abduction case seems to have generated outrage about Kavanaugh.
Lisa and Susan are basically place holders. Neither has been beyond their home states or DC for years. They don’t even give speeches or attend stuff at any of the rights think tanks. Also, neither has something to trade for their yes vote….they got nothing and both know it.
One would have thought that there might be actual political differences between permanent Red states like MS, TX and SC as compared to Purple states like ME, OH and FL. But the reality is their Repub senators all vote exactly the same, meaning that these days they only fear their (extremist) base, while having no concerns that the supposed “independents” will ever punish them in a general election by voting for a Dem.
The incoherent Trumper has mostly been a bit player in the O’Kav drama, and his expected hate-mongering in various shithole Trumpite states for airing on the Trumpischer Beobachter TV network likely isn’t going to have much effect in generating any more fear in phony “moderates” like Collins—who’s already behaving like the Woman in the Bubble. Trumper’s just doing the (now routine) Whipping Up of The Deplorables to ensure McConnell’s Monsters all know that this is to be a purely partisan vote, just like everything else. All just part of the current National Trumpalist ritual.
If any one of the supposedly Reluctant Repub Trio voted against Raging Bart at this point it would be stunning. The pious hand-wringer Flake shouldn’t really have any more fear of Trumper since he’s already been driven out of politics by America’s political criminal. Flake’s problem is that even if (in his pipe-dream fantasies) he’d enjoy screwing Trumper as his final act, he wants results-oriented conservative activists masquerading as “justices” controlling the Court for decades, and also wants to be able to receive his Wingnut Welfare payments in perpetuity.
As an American statesman and patriot, he’s a zero. That’s his real historical legacy…
I don’t think Flake is going to vote no because of Trumps douchebaggery. He said that he would not hold Trump’s comments against Kavanaugh, that would be unfair: “No, you can’t blame or take it out on other people, the president’s insensitive remarks.” In fact, I think he is a pretty solid yes from what I can extract from his remarks.
Yup. If Feckless Flake can’t see the mountain of obvious lies Shitface Bart has already uttered by now, he’s willfully blind.
Maine’s IRV changes the calculus for Collins a lot, because if she’s in a 3-way race as an independent with a Dem and a Rep, she will win if she doesn’t come out third place in the first choice ranking, which she probably won’t. So she has a pretty good shot at retaining her seat if she opposes Kavanaugh. Given how toxic he is turning out to be, I think if she votes for him she’s probably out in 2020. By 2020 not only will his nasty behavior be confirmed he’ll be on a string of hated Court decisions as well. Collins will not survive being blamed for his confirmation.
Quite the contrary. Fox News finally has the narrative they need and can use to rile up the base. Autocratic tendency to bluster on and double-down etc. pretty effective.
Til it’s not.
I don’t think The Three are the audience for this. Whatever pressure Trump wants to exert, he can do better with private threats, although there are probably stronger forces on them at the moment.
This is about using Kavanaugh to rile up the base for the election, something the new Marist poll says is happening anyway, and something Trump obviously wants to reinforce.
There seems to be a full-court press of smears against Dr. Ford by the usual suspects, including the despicable Megyn Kelly. It’s Trump’s party now, full-on cult members whipped into a frenzy, not unlike other evil mobs of the past.
I’ve seen my neighbors abandon any conscience or morality to stay in the fold, and not admit that they’ve been suckered by a degenerate con man.
No, it was his best move since he was determined not to nominate someone else. If you’re going to stick with the nomination, your best move is to try to make it about partisanship and rile up your brainwashed followers, and challenge your voters to cross the next line you set out for them. He’s already brought them this far, they can’t go much lower — this is their chance to enact judicial supremacy! I’m sure he showed these poll numbers of Republican women surging, and the only thing that matters is the primary.
Now it will have long lasting effects. The Supreme Court is not going to make it out of this intact. It might not even be a good long term trade for the Republicans. But it was his best move. I’m just never sure of what move gets them off the tiger.
Are we confident enough all the Dems will vote against that we can just worry about these three? Everything I’ve learned about Joe Manchin over the years tells me he can’t wait to confirm Kavanaugh.
I’m confident Manchin won’t be the deciding vote. I’m not confident he’ll vote against assuming the Rs have the numbers already.
I’m expecting Manchin to vote with the majority.
I don’t think Trump blundered. He may not be a brilliant strategist but he understands tactics well enough.
In the short-medium term, the Kavanaugh confirmation hearings probably increased Republican voter enthusiasm. I think this results holds whether Kavanaugh is confirmed or not. This is obviously important for the midterms, which for Trump may be a legal/personal concern rather than a legislative one.
Nah it’s not permanent. It’s about winning and losing. They are under siege, they think they’re losing. If he’s confirmed, their enthusiasm will tank down. If he goes down, I think it’s possible their enthusiasm ramps down (but not as much as if he’s confirmed). It’s the limbo state that is driving them.
I disagree on this one. If Kavanaugh is confirmed the backlash from women in this country will be overwhelming. There may even be a chance that R’s get complacent in the mid-terms.
My guess: McConnell wants to get Kavanaugh seated to control SCOTUS for a generation, meanwhile losing the Senate/House so that Dems are forced to cut entitlements to balance their excessive spending (and likely be caught holding the bag when the next recession hits). It’s the same thing we saw in ’06. R’s overreach, lose power, and Dem’s get stuck looking like the bad guys in office.
Most Republicans will believe his lies which are red meat that will get repeated, talking points that will rile up the base. So yeah, my guess is a net plus for Trump, more than offsetting the libtards who are already angry anyway, so so what?
Strictly a short term benefit to the GOP, good for this election only. In years to come, it will mostly be liberal anger that persists, but that would be someone else’s problem, so what?
Collins is a liar and a coward and Flake is all hat and no cattle. Murkowski is the only real question. And what about the other GOP senators? How come nobody is questioning them?
The first sign that Trump is loosing presidentially was last Monday:
Their real worry should be the midterms.
My phone notification just said a top GOP senator says the FBI found no misconduct by Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh. So there is that. Guess that means all the dem senators in red states now have permission to vote yes.
Headline at WashPo is ” … Collins, Flake express satisfaction with FBI report on Kavanaugh … “
So it appears the ship has sailed.
Yes, the republicans are now on tv taking a victory lap and accusimg the democrats of a mindless attack and of trying to,destroy the poor man. I wonder how much mileage they will get in the mid terms on the back of their martyr. Lindsey is on now repeating how the Dems tried to destroy the poor man.
But Heitcamp says no. Good for her. Manchin could be only yes dem. We will see.