I wrote a brief piece over the weekend warning that indications that we’ll have unusually high turnout in the midterm elections do not necessarily portend a good night for the Democrats. And some of the commentary I received was instructive.
“Stop the Chicken Littling already. If early signs look bad obviously that’s bad. But now even when they look good it still must be bad. All of these posts predicting doom really do no good.”
“Do you ever see a post like this on a conservative site? Nope. They don’t help anyone.”
“Thanks. I was looking for something to turn this day into another day of dread. I needed to feel that sinking feeling on Sunday, just like every other day. Jesus, man.”
“This constant state of doom, gloom and despair is the thing that most exasperates me about Democrats. People don’t vote if they think their vote won’t make a difference. Convince them that nothing will ever get better and you’re convincing them to stay home. So snap out of it! There’s a reason Republicans spend so much time trying to purge voters from the rolls…High turnout is great news for Democrats, and this looks like a banner year.”
You’ll notice a couple of people simply rejected my analysis, insisting that high turnout is necessarily good for the Democrats. Analysts are familiar with this kind of non-responsive response, and that’s not what I think is interesting here.
What I want to focus on is how these responses work on the emotions of the analyst. This is criticism and it’s somewhat harsh. I’m not helping the cause. I’m making things worse. I represent a fatal flaw of the left. I’m discouraging people and creating apathy.
People generally want to be liked, and if not liked then at least respected. Writers and analysts generally want to be read and to give their audience something that pleases them and makes them want to come back. Hopefully, you can see how a simple reward/punishment calculus could lead me to be gun-shy about giving out any kind of warnings to my audience in the future.
This is how a group delusion gets created. When an audience demands good news, that audience gets more of what they want and less of what they don’t want.
It’s a cruel thing for analysts because they’ll hammer me today for telling them to temper their optimism and get to work, but they’ll blast all the rose-colored analysts later if Election Day doesn’t go as well as they predicted it would.
They tell themselves that they want to get good predictive value, but they then stray from that and ascribe to the analyst the power to actually influence that which they analyze. My job suddenly isn’t to tell them where things stand and where they might be headed, but to avoid sowing discouragement and apathy.
In this particular piece, I am least sharing that latter conceit to the extent that I’m telling people it’s not too late to make a difference. Obviously, I am hoping that some people will be spurred to action and that this will improve the end result. I’m not selling resignation and am actively railing against those who spend elections as spectators and then put all their energy into being critics.
But I’m still wearing an analyst’s hat rather than the hat of a cheerleader.
What I did on Sunday is only what they could have read on Monday. I explained that high turnout typically favors the Democrats because they have a higher percentage of low-propensity voters, but that this year things might not work out that way for a couple of reasons. First, the president’s party typically does poorly in midterm elections because they’re less motivated to vote. Therefore, if things are going well for the opposition, we should expect a lot of the majority party’s voters to stay home. If they don’t, the typical enthusiasm advantage disappears. Second, for a true wave to develop, we need this effect to be very pronounced in Trump-supporting states and districts, but if we’re getting something close to presidential turnout, then the red areas will be won by red candidates and the blue areas will be won by blue candidates. That should be enough to win the Democrats the House, but not by blowout margins. And it would probably doom some Democratic candidates for Senate running for reelection in states Trump carried by huge margins.
This is a warning that high turnout will not automatically translate to a good night for the left when the numbers come in, but it isn’t all doom and gloom. It’s part dispassionate analysis and part argument against overconfidence and complacency. If that’s a fatal flaw on my part, so be it.
I was the author of one of those comments. No one expects you to be a cheerleader, but if it was intended as dispassionate analysis it didn’t come off that way. It came off as doom and gloom. Telling people that they can’t rest, that they need to get out the vote and volunteer and donate is one thing, because victory isn’t assured, and we all know that, but in my reading that isn’t what you did. I read it as abandon all hope ye who enter here.
That was what had occurred to me – the overall tenor of the story was far from dispassionate, regardless the intention. Following the various forecasters, from the very data driven (Nate Silver) to the more historically driven (Sabato, Cook) suggests some cautious optimism for the House and probably some state legislatures and governors’ races. I don’t think I ever took seriously the notion that the Senate would flip Blue. Given the map, the realistic reading early on was the Dems would do well to minimize losses or even hold the status quo. Still seems to be reasonable. That said, what probably will occur is hardly a guarantee, and what is improbable is not necessarily impossible. Doing something tangible – from the usual grunt work to get out the vote to actually voting – is what is going to win this thing, to the extent that it is winnable.
I can’t decide how you’ll take what I write, but telling you I have a sick feeling is not the same as saying we’re doomed.
I don’t know if this is good or bad news for you, but Chuck Todd agrees with you.
What is confusing is the following:
Less and less people self identify themselves as Republicans. Pew research:
http://www.people-press.org/2018/03/20/1-trends-in-party-affiliation-among-demographic-groups/2_1-15
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Even among “independents”, more lean Democratic party than Republican.
In this cycle, we have had several prominent former Republican voters publicly disavow the Republican party, either registering as independent or more aggressively registering as Democrat.
For each person like that in the public eye, there probably are many more registered Republicans who would have similar voting behavior.
If there are fewer registered Republicans, who usually do turn out to vote in mid-terms, whereas Democratic party has trouble getting their supporters to turn out, and many precincts are showing HUGE lines of early voters – how rare is that in places like Houston and Georgia? – then how come it is still likely that Republicans might hold their positions?
I can understand that in places where there are aggressive voter disenfranchisement efforts (GA, ND) that is of significant concern.
I wonder if predictors are now excessively shy of reading the tea leaves after 2016! Sam Wang at Princeton Election Consortium has stopped making predictions. I wonder if that is one of the major reasons for being so circumspect!
Gerrymandering is a huge factor. It has pretty much made almost my entire state unreachable for most statewide Democratic candidates.
I don’t understand how gerrymandering can screw up a state wide election.
But mentioning a “sick feeling” does indicate to me that what follows will not be “dispassionate.” BooMan, I visit here every day, usually several times a day, and follow closely what you write. I just think your tone was off on this one, even if your point wasn’t.
I wish there was an edit button. Does “not” indicate…..
Think you had it “right” the first time (in the sense of expressing what you meant to say; not that I’m agreeing with it)?
. . . Jus’ sayin’.
Maybe you still don’t get the point.
If someone goes around the left-wing sites getting giddy about turnout numbers, that’s demotivating. It invites optimism and complacency, and it may very well be misplaced.
Then you show up here and there’s a big wet blanket telling you that this optimism may be wrong and here’s why.
And I tell you to get off your ass and quit reading happy talk.
How you get doom and gloom and apathy from that is not my responsibility or fault.
I think the dems will win the house but then I just read Krugman on HP. He thinks Trump and friends will simply deny legitimacy – you heard it before, the five million fraudulent votes Trump spoke of. This will permit him and friends to deny any information to a democratic houses who may choose to investigate things he would rather not. It is a part nightmare scenario where Trump simply ignores the constitution and mocks the dems. I even bet his base cheers him on. I can almost see the rallies now.
The only way out of this may be 2020 or a recession so that people hurt and want to move on. It is hard to see how Mueller will help this at all. We all know what he has done and heard it several times from several sources. But no one wants to or is capable of doing anything about it. That constitutional crisis we hear about, may be on us. Mid terms? Right.
It appears that we all read your Sunday post through a myriad of different lenses. As for me, I didn’t see it as a doom and gloom perspective. I saw it as a pretty realistic assessment of the dangers of getting caught up in hype that could be generated only from within ones own partisan information bubble, and also the dangers of relying too heavily on predictive turnout models from past elections as the basis for crystal-balling this election.
I have sat around the table with a lot of Dems and Dem BOE officials this cycle and hashed over the early voting and turnout numbers. And I have heard all the excited talk at our public Party meetings about how it bodes so well for Democratic prospects. And it might actually turn out that way. But I can also say that Trump supporters around here are just as energized now as they were in 2016. They are also trekking to early voting in unprecedented numbers here. All I have to do is run the analytics in the DNC database for Ohio and do some comparisons with BOE ballot data, and it is very obvious that the enthusiasm and energy is by no means primarily on the Democratic side. Now I could spin this data to some degree, if my wish was to keep Dems motivated and working hard right up until Election Day, and not to entertain any negative thoughts that their efforts might not produce as successful a result as they hope. And for some, they would probably want that, as any consideration of the alternative is just too distressing, and possibly de-motivating to them. Or I could be realistic about what it might mean, and use that as a tool to convey how unprecedentedly important it is that no one sits on the sidelines who has even a small amount of time or energy available to put into this effort.
In my canvassing this weekend, I had a few Democrats tell me how worried they were this election, more than they have ever been, and how much they appreciated my pounding the pavement and knocking on doors. Yet, when they are asked about helping out, virtually no one wants to step out of the shadows, even when they are scared shitless about what might happen. I don’t really hold that against them, but I do find it very disappointing. I gave my best inspirational pitch Sunday to a retired teacher, as we stood in her driveway, and I told her about how my conscience just would not let me do nothing. And even as she heaped praise and thanks on me for doing this in a 70% Republican county, she was still not willing to join the effort, even in the smallest way. I could not even persuade her to take a yard sign.
I might well wake up the morning of November 7 to a big shit sandwich, and be forced to face a whole lot of self righteous glee among all my Republican family and friends. But by god, I will have been the only one among all of them who has given even a minute of their own time to stand up and fight for their principles and their morals. Unlike them, I am not going to simply be a Keyboard Commando, raging every day to like minded people, from within their own biased little echo chamber.
There is still time to do something to help. If we don’t get our hands on at least one lever of power, we truly are fucked. If you thought these last two years have been insane, just wait and see what the next two are like if Republicans walk away knowing, without a doubt, there will never be any political repercussions for anything they do. It is the worst possible nightmare imaginable. If it happens, and you have made no effort to help try to stave it off, then there is really nothing left to say to you.
I do hold it against people here in Sherwood, OR, where my wife and I spent every Friday of 2017 holding Indivisible meetings, many weekends preparing for and holding rallies, canvassing for the Washington County Democratic Party’s Neighborhood leader program, post carding events 7 so far and 3 more before the election…..and it’s just a core of 10-15 people that do this work. Even within our group, there are few that will do anything.
This is not a hobby for my wife and me. It’s a civic responsibility that we are modeling and facilitating.
That said, there is a positive vibe in our canvassing. Even as it is counter cultural to knock on doors, we have been able to get through to people as we hand out the party slate cards and remind people to vote early.
I feel much gratitude to people like you, Mike. My twitter handle is pbriggsiam – let’s motivate each other.
I know what you mean. I don’t treat it as a hobby, either. It’s funny, though, that some of my family seem to take that view of what I’m doing. My 80 year old mom remarked recently how “into it” I was. Like I’m collecting stamps, or something. When I try to explain what is happening in our country and why this shit is so important, she does the old, “I just don’t follow politics” dance.
Well, I’m not on Twitter much. Just don’t have much spare time at all to spend on it. I do peek occasionally, but it’s few and far between. So FWIW, I’m @mikeinohio on Twitter, too. I’ll look you up and follow.
. . . Education”? “Bureau of Entropy”? “Bring Old Empties”? “Bots on Ecstacy”?
“BOE”???
15 yards and loss of down for undefined acronym abuse.
Sorry. BOE=Board Of Elections.
I guess I thought that was a more universal abbreviation than it might be.
BTW, I thought your guesses at my shorthand were great!
All we need right now is the House, and I will be quite surprised if we don’t get it. The only bubble that will burst is the idea that we had a shot at the Senate. That was always a media-driven fantasy hyped for ratings and clicks. Math is a cruel mistress.
My bigger fear is that the Dems in the House will misread what the voters are actually saying, and scare the shit out of voters the way Trump scares the shit out of them now. And that could be enough to guarantee Trump’s reelection and a changing back of the House guard.
Now is not the time to be over-sensitive about upsetting someone who is committed to your cause in any case. Why is it the right never have to worry about upsetting people and that that only seems to mobilise their base even more? How many Republicans has Trump insulted and yet they still support him?
If Dems have a fault, it is that they aren’t as tough minded as their opponents when it comes to a tough fight. My concern would be that even if Dems win a narrow majority in either or both houses there will always be a few ready, willing, and able to sell out and give Trump a free pass, thus undermining the whole rationale for voting Dem in the first place.
It’s time Dems got tough, dealt ruthlessly with sell-outs, and stopped running in fear of themselves, their supporters or their opponents. Unfortunately its war, and probably the bravest will win.
This is precisely why I stayed away from this discussion.
Because, come on; realistically there’s nothing going on here but mood- and expectation-management. The tactical and predictive speculation is interesting and well-informed, in the abstract, but it can’t be anything else until next month.
Obviously it matters what “mood” Democrats are in, in terms of how energetically GOTV efforts and other work is addressed, but the arguments go way beyond that; it becomes a form of magical thinking. (I mean, the regulars on this blog are hardly “the left” — it’s an interesting and even perhaps influential group, but it’s not like we’re actually affecting anything in any real way just by having an argument here.)
DailyKos and other sites are full of this kind of thing — and, if someone’s optimistic they’re scolded, “we have to keep working as if we’re ten points behind!” while if someone’s pessimistic they’re scolded, “Come on, don’t be like that! Fight!” or whatever football-coach language…which is part of my point because a football coach can actually affect the outcome of a game, whereas an individual Daily Kos diary probably has no measurable impact at all.
So, discuss it, don’t discuss it; be pessimistic or optimistic…it’s all good. Just bear in mind that the only thing at stake is the collective emotional state of mind of a few dozen far-flung commenters.
What bad news is that? That Dems are not guaranteed to win the House? Lest we forget, the incumbent party almost always loses seats in off-year elections.
Are the Republicans waking up and storming the polls like in 2016? Sure. Some of them are. The committed ones who were going to vote anyway.
This is really going to reduce the “Blue Wave” effect which might well have given Democrats the Senate – but for that to happen they would need to draw an inside straight – pick up AZ and NV while not losing anything, despite running candidates in deep red states like North Dakota, West Virginia, Texas, Missouri and Tennessee.
The most likely scenario for the entire election has always been ZERO change and that’s still the default. Dems remain stuck with 49 seats the the GOP 51.
Dems will still pick up some important governorships and avoid being shut out in a lot of states that are important for 2020.
But I’d be amazed if Republicans can avoid losing 23 seats in the House. The same model that gives Republicans an 80% chance of holding the Senate has the Democrats picking up an average of 32 seats. It just might not be 45-60 seats which is “Big Blue Wave” territory.
Trump managed to squeak into power despite losing the last election by 3,000,000 votes. And he’s insanely done nothing whatever to expand his base by 1%.
Any sane President would be half-way to re-election by now, simply by governing from the middle and working out deals with the opposition to pass legislative programs that have some degree of bi-partisan support. Not Trump. That locks him in at a ceiling of around 42%. It’s still shocking that over 40% of voters would vote for fascism, but when you consider what’s going on in American I suppose it was inevitable.
What causes depression on the left is the feeling that “we’ve made progress! We’ve made progress! Ooop! No apparently we haven’t. Now we are stuck re-litigating the Civil Right Act of 1964 all over again.”
Now helpless immigrants are “bad people” coming to riot and tear down our cities. It’s like listening to Alabama Sen. Richard Russell, the arch-segregationist in the Senate circa 1963.
Nothing whatever has changed in these people’s minds since they thought Martin Luther King was a Commie back in the 60’s.
Well, get used to the idea that we are in the middle of an undeclared civil war against fascism and racism, just like in the 1930’s, 40’s and 50’s and 60’s. The left has had the mind-set that “this is the 21st century! We shouldn’t still be arguing these basic concepts.” Well we are so get used to it.
I think the energy of the left in this election is people waking up to the fact that we now have to take our country back. Well the South Africans managed to do it despite Apartheid, so there’s really nothing stopping us.
We should be optimistic but not naive. We need to get into the trenches, door-to-door as if our lives depend on it, and in some cases, they do. We should expect to win but only because we know we need to fight like he’ll to win, and are committed to doing just that. We can’t worry about losing before the votes are counted; there will be plenty time for that afterwords if we do.
The question is why historical midterm patterns are not holding, why turnout in all sectors is supposedly at prez year levels, and why the monstrous Trumper and his band of turds may be the beneficiaries of a completely ahistorical holding of power by a prez.
After all the Trumpian breaking of norms and lying and buffoonery and gleeful sadism (as well as the usual “conservative” wrecking of the Treasury), in the final analysis it appears very few Repubs are dismayed or discouraged by Trumpite rule. This likely means that they are actually delighted with what Trumper has given them, and want much more of it. It can now be seen that they oppose and despise the racial/ethnic pluralization of America above all things, and that if a prez gives them harassment of racial/ethnic minorities, especially Latinos, they will forgive him anything. And Trumper has certainly given them tons of cruelty, hate and spite, more than any prez in post-war history. Their (male) voters also either delightedly celebrate the ongoing War on Women, or (like their women) are quite indifferent to it.
We can also see that Repub voters certainly have no concerns about a loss of “democracy”, so long as white males are the ones unfairly entrenched in power. “Democracy” was thus a concept to which they only paid lip service, as their increasingly brazen vote suppression tactics make plain. That’s been proven beyond argument since the Stolen Election of 2000. There is thus no underlying foundation of principle holding the various factions of the country together, except perhaps televised team sports and Amazon Prime.
So even though one had hoped that there was some baseline of decency left in the country, the rabid enthusiasm of the right circa 2018 demonstrates that this is not the case. From Kiddie Koncentration Kamps to 5-4 victories upholding Muslim travel bans, “Conservatives” love the latest look of the Repub party as a National White Peoples Party.
It’s also looking like we will see record levels of nationwide ad spending for a midterm, but that has probably been the case since 2010 (the year Citizens United was decided), when a more “historical” midterm absolutely annihilated the Obama/Dem Congress. Ever-growing addiction to social media by all classes of society now ensures that every smartphone user is inundated daily (hourly?) with inflammatory lies about the calamity of a Witch Pelosi/Dem Congress, and Repubs as the party REALLY seeking to protect pre-existing conditions[!], so this technological advancement stokes Repubs and their undeclared fellow travelers to a fever pitch. Our sclerotic national memory and MSM horse race reporting ensures that if they did dislike something about the National Trumpalists, they have long since forgotten it.
Finally, all this early voting works both ways–it makes voting (supposedly) easier for everybody, including the white working class National Trumpalists. Voting now seems to resemble more of an ongoing back-and-forth football game than in the old days when almost everyone was forced to vote on the same day. Now one can follow daily stories about which team “leads” in early voting in State X (usually Dems), and thus which team needs to get emergency pep-talks during half time. It may be that all this early voting simply does increase the number of votes cast, left and right, and this itself may be erasing the historical patterns of midterm voting. It’s hard to complain about an increase in voter participation—except of course that Team Conservative has tirelessly worked to rig the game of early voting against Dem demographics everywhere they can.
In my district 538 says the republican incumbent has a 99+ percent chance of winning. And their latest poll says so as well. There goes all my money. I don’t know how many more cycles I will keep doing this. But I should have known better. It is one of the reddest of the red. I want an Alexandria. We need one like her. There are probably many like this district, lost causes seeking some new thinking.
I read the piece as a “Don’t count on a ‘Blue Wave’–make it happen!” sort of thing with which I totally agree.
. . . insightful analysis you can produce. (Which is what I thought you did in that piece.)
Being a longstanding member of the Reality-Based Community, I realize that will sometimes include some “bad news”.
“It’s a cruel thing for analysts because they’ll hammer me today for telling them to temper their optimism and get to work, but they’ll blast all the rose-colored analysts later if Election Day doesn’t go as well as they predicted it would.”
Hey Booman, I was one of the commentors that chimed in with something similar to what you quoted and I find that my objection to the Sunday piece was not to being met with a “temper”ing of optimism. It didn’t feel like a nudge, but more like a full frontal opposition that read more like a contrarian take whose headlines I see littering RealClearPolitics, via National Review, RCP editors, and the like. Although, from you I know it is your legitimate feelings of fear based on your background and knowledge.
It felt like I was taking a punch to the nose, instead of being woken up from some sort of happy go lucky dream. I already live in fear, horror, and almost depression from the helplessness of the current situation. I think it is not for me to tell you to make me feel better, or what to write, but I will tell you that my favorite pieces in the past from you have been insight into: A) what is possible if opposition is overcome B) the dangers of losing (rather than the dread of things outside of our control, such as Trump supporter enthusiasm). Amongst many other amazing pieces. These things fire me up, they are how I currently fuel my activism because I know that if I do nothing and take it for granted we’ll have 2016 all over again.
Maybe we still will, but frankly I already know how bad that will be (if not dreadfully worse) and don’t need to be reminded of my fear. I need reasons to hope, points of inflection where if I apply my pressure I might hope to make a difference, however small. I also love that here we have a community that is being realistic, such as no longer thinking we have a good shot at the Senate, but not about despair.
I’m not going anywhere, and will continue to give to this site and support it, but for my 2 cents about the past few posts where I’ve complained about YOUR tone I would like to think I would respond differently if it gave some concrete examples of how the seemingly contrarian take of even higher than high turnout might damage Dem prospects. It could be that I’m simply not receptive to negative news right now, its true, but I would like to think there is a way to shine a light on the pit with spikes in it that lies before us, without making me feel like I’m already stuck impaled at the bottom of that same pit. (But then, I’m easy to please like that. J/k, obviously this is no easy feat).
As I said above, I am confused!
Here is the USC/Dornsife poll today and its analysis in LA Times:
http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-usc-latimes-tracking-poll-20181022-story.html
I think caution is wise. And doing everything in one’s circle of influence.
I am phone banking on Sunday. Besides donating money in house and senate races where I feel my contribution could be helpful.
New York Times
I don’t think there is a single person who reads this site who expects you to be a cheerleader. I don’t believe I’ve ever read an unambiguously upbeat post from you. I don’t mean that as a criticism, it’s just not what you do, and that’s fine.
But here’s my problem, and it’s right in your title to this post.
Of course, the short answer is no, but the long answer is high turnout is not bad news.
If you want to find something to worry about, there’s plenty to choose from, starting with Brian Kemp putting his finger on the scales of his own election in Georgia. There is the voter suppression in North Dakota. There’s Trump’s praise of Gianforte’s assault on a reporter. There are the Proud Boys. And there is the evidence that Russia is attacking our election system, again.
But when you tell us that high voter turnout gives you a sick feeling in your stomach? That isn’t speaking a hard truth. That’s defeatism and it’s really not what Democrats need as an incentive for action. If all news is bad news, then what is the point?
You heard it here first, you just didn’t want to hear it.
You can repeat that as often as you like, it doesn’t make it true. Democrats have never been favored to win the Senate this election, because the map is not favorable to them.
2 years ago, projections were that they could lose 4-6 seats, because they’re battling on Republican territory. (Since then they’ve picked up one seat in Alabama.) The fact that they’re holding close to current numbers is (also) a good sign for Democrats this round.
And they’ve never had better than a 30% chance of taking the Senate in 538’s forecast.
https:/projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate
So no, I didn’t hear it here first.
Greetings, all, I have never commented before. I’m one of those long time reader, first time commenter kinda people smile. However, this post made me want to go and create an account so I could comment. Because while I try to be an informed voter, I can’t say I know enough about politics to do any kind of analysis. So a bit about myself to illustrate the point. I live in Central Florida, from the Midwest originally, I’m married with two small children. I’m totally blind and also have a child with special needs. I started to become interested in politics as a teenager, around 1988. And that was only because I felt I needed to be as informed as I could on the issues. It was drilled into me by my parents that I need to vote and to become as involved in the political process as I could, as my voice was important. My dad was also in the military so I got that speech about people fighting and dying for our right to vote, and as a somewhat related segway, I remember vividly my dad telling me that I needed to speak out for myself and advocate for myself and not let anyone step on me, because being a blind woman, that would be more likely to happen to me than to most. At first during my I guess you could say “growing political awareness”, I would have considered myself an independent. But as the years have gone by, I vote Democratic now, only because I don’t think anyone of good conscience can support the Republicans. I’m a Muslim convert, a blind woman, married to an immigrant, and to me the Republicans have made it very clear they don’t want my vote. Even if I thought I supported them on certain issues, I would feel if I voted for any of them I’m not sure how to put it, it’d be like I’d be voting against myself, or my family. I remember when Trump won, I hate to admit it but I actually cried. Because I thought about my son who has special needs, what would happen to him, how would the world change for him in negative ways. Now I have a 7 month old baby girl, so now, well, I’m not as “aware” of things as I normally am. Right now I’m just trying to get enough sleep so I can function through my normal work day. What I can tell you is that I’m so ready to vote. My county’s early voting starts this coming Thrusday the 25th, and the first thing I’m going to do when I finish work on Thursday afternoon is to go and vote. I’ve been wanting to go and vote since Trump got in last election. And at least I take comfort in the fact that I’ve voted in every single election since I’ve moved here in 2006, and I do my best to encourage others to get involved as best they can in the political process. Because as I tell people, anyone who is blind or disabled or Muslim or a woman, or has children with special needs, or any number of other “groups” of people, have no business voting for Trump. I just wanted to offer my take as an “average” person, although I also know people who thing that all politicians are the same, and they have no interest in voting, etc., and sadly, nothing I can seem to do can convince them otherwise. But I try my best. As far as the polls go, I’m just not paying attention to them, because no matter what the polls say, it only matters/means anything if you go out and cast a vote. Anyway, I feel like I’m not making any sense. I’m trying to keep my comment short and to the point, and I’m fighting a yucky cold that I’m having a hard time getting over so my brain feels a bit foggy today. I just wanted to say that as much as the “reality” might hurt, I’d rather have “the truth” no matter how bitter it may be. I don’t want to have exaggerated positive expectations because, as a friend used to say, someone blew sunshine up my ass smile. Anyway, Booman is my “go-to” blog for political analysis and to know what may be going on in other parts of the country that I’ve not had time to lift up my head out of my little corner of the world to take a look at. Because as I mentioned, between working full time, taking care of two small kids, etc, I have a bit of a full plate at the moment.
Thank you for your kind and thoughtful comment.