Paul Manafort is facing an incredibly brutal sentence in the Virginia case, and that’s before we get to the case in the District of Columbia. Start with the fact that he’s probably going to have to pay nearly $25 million in restitution. On top of that, he’ll have to forfeit more than four million dollars worth of assets. And then there’s the term of imprisonment, which will be in the 19.5 to 24.5 year range.
To be clear, this is not what the Office of Special Counsel asked for. It’s the recommendation of the Probation Office, as laid out in their Presentence Investigation Report. The OSC merely agreed with their findings. Manafort will get no mercy in Virginia. He’s not likely to get any in D.C. either after the judge found there this week that he breached his plea agreement and told numerous intentional lies to the FBI, a grand jury and to OSC prosecutors.
Under the circumstances, it’s understandable that he’d see his best option as a presidential pardon, no matter how long the odds of him receiving one.
It obviously did not have to be this way. Consider the case of his business partner, Rick Gates, who committed most of the same crimes. .
Gates pleaded guilty in February [2018] to reduced charges of lying to the FBI and conspiring against the United States and agreed to cooperate with Mueller. He faces about five to six years in prison under sentencing guidelines, but his cooperation could prompt the government to ask for significantly less time.
Rick Gates will probably be a free man sometime early in the next decade. It’s hard to see how the 69 year old Manafort will ever be free again. Why did Manafort choose this road? Is he just monumentally stupid? Or is he so guilty that he’d rather spend the rest of his life in jail than admit what he did?
Of course, he could be protecting his family from possible retaliation. Or he could be operating under an agreement that he’ll get that pardon.
If so, Trump better hope that Robert Mueller never gets wind of the deal.