This diary is going to be relatively brief. I am catching up on the coverage of Brexit, and wow, I am almost at a loss for words. Apparently earlier today, the Speaker of the House of Commons, John Bercow, made a statement that a third “meaningful” vote on May’s deal is not in the offing unless there are significant changes to the Brexit deal. Apparently, May cannot just keep bringing the same legislation to vote over and over again until she gets her way. This has created a Constitutional Crisis just days away from when the UK is supposed to leave the EU.
So what happens now? That is still being sorted out. I am under the impression that May will have to negotiate a fairly long extension of A.50 under the circumstances, and that in all likelihood that means that the UK will have to field candidates for the EU parliamentary elections coming up in a couple months. There is still some talk of finding a way to circumvent the Speaker in the meantime, although the May government has yet to get enough of her supposed legislative allies on board to make a meaningful third vote (whether a self-plagiarized version of the last one or not) unlikely at least this week. DUP seems to not be on board at all from what I keep reading.
Confused? You are not alone. I get the feeling that May and her Cabinet may be even more confused than the rest of us. Probably have been for quite some time.
I hope Frank Schnittger can fill in the details I missed, either in the comments here or with a diary of his own.
Note: “Anarchy in the UK” is a nod to the old classic punk tune by the Sex Pistols. Note too that I am well aware of the difference between anarchy (a philosophical position) and chaos (which is actually what is occurring in the UK t the moment).
Cheers.
Read and weep. I would not want to be a member of the UK government right now.
If reading correctly, the EU is not in much of a mood to grant an extension of the A.50 deadline unless May can come up with a solid game plan from the UK. That would mean a solid commitment to a new general election (which then would give some basis for renegotiating, I guess?), a second referendum for the voters to have their say, etc.
Bottom line is that the EU negotiators and leaders are tired of trying to parse what the UK government actually wants and are not in the mood to deal with the UK government’s own self-inflicted meltdown. I would not expect much from the UK parliament. Under Corbyn, Labour seems to be leveraging whatever exit from the EU for its own supposed electoral advantage (good luck with that).
The EU may say that, but I don’t think they’d want to have the blame for a likely catastrophic Brexit on their hands. For them, the obvious course is just to let it drag on while demographic shifts and economic pain push British popular opinion to Remain. IMO Barnier knows this and is just trying to make the whole process as painful for May and the establishment Tories as possible.
You can’t really ignore the psychology of it though. The EU has already bent over backward in an attempt to accommodate the British tantrum. At some point some member with veto power is going to tell them to go fuck themselves, even if only for domestic consumption.
IMO either we see a rapid return to sanity in parliament or it’s Après nous, le déluge.
No matter how this ultimately plays out, the UK will have been made an example – a cautionary tale, really. Any other nation’s leaders (or subset of leaders) who get some wild idea about leaving the EU will think twice.
May and her inner circle deserve any pain inflicted upon them. The move to invoke A.50 without a solid plan was at best impulsive. I really want to believe a saner leader would have waited until the dust had settled after the vote, done some serious research, had some serious talks with any and all major stakeholders, and made sure that there was a feasible way to move forward with the referendum, and if not, eaten some crow and stepped down. That’s not how May rolls, I guess. I would say the Tories in general deserve any pain inflicted upon them. It was Cameron’s hubris and lust for power that put the people of the UK in this particular spot of bother to begin with, egged on by BoJo, Farage, and various and sundry human scum.
There is real anger over income inequality, over being left behind, much as there is in the US (I live in a part of the US that has been left behind). There were ways of dealing with those real issues, even within the EU’s current system. Maybe a second referendum happens and maybe there is some opportunity for some subset of the UK to be among EU’s reformers. I have to wonder about how likely it is now that the UK just simply crashes out without a plan, a deal. I know the UK Parliament ruled out a no-deal scenario, but the EU ultimately gets to decide, and some of its stakeholders may decide enough is enough.
I loved this from the Guardian link:
Nice use of the passive voice. They “slid” into crisis as if it were gravity’s fault not theirs.
Absolutely no responsibility whatsoever. The government, by forces over which it had no control, woke up one day and realized that the whole place was on fire. Brilliant.
Turns out it is all Parliament’s fault. She’s just batted around by the whims of nature and cranky MPs.
An apt thread on what the Brexiteers said back around 2016.
*Situation normal: All f*cked up
The situation on the ground in the UK is very fluid, and I cannot even begin to keep up with the rapid development of events. The Guardian live blog is right now my primary source. I do check a few Twitter accounts every now and again.
EU is rightfully playing hardball. There is a great deal of fatigue among the stakeholders on the Continent and a desire to just be done with it and with – as someone in the EU put it – the UK’s “weird political ideas.”
There will probably be a third meaningful vote after all, although its odds of passing are middling at best. Opposition MPs want revocation of A.50 as a last resort on the table, which would seem wise about now.
UK may well crash out of the EU with no deal at the end of next week.
From: Pathetic, incoherent, chaotic: Europe’s verdict on Brexit shambles
As I write this, the rolling coverage on the live blog indicates that Downing Street and Parliament are in complete and utter chaos.