Ronald Reagan wasn’t really that popular when he was president except when he needed to be. He peaked in 1984, during his reelection bid, but he was a major drag on Republicans in the 1982 and 1986 midterms, and he left office in a state of befuddlement and tarnished by the ongoing Iran-Contra investigation. There were three factors that turned Reagan into an icon.
First, he was the first president since Eisenhower to get elected twice and not be forced to resign. In that sense, he restored a sense of normalcy to what had become a dysfunctional presidency. Second, people like Grover Norquist launched a major program to name things after Reagan and to burnish his image, which is an unusual thing. Usually, political operatives are done with politicians when they are of no further use. The conservative strategists understood that they needed Reagan to be perceived as worthy of Mt. Rushmore to fend off any kind of return to the pre-Reagan days for the GOP.
The third factor was that Reagan was followed by another Republican president, thereby ratifying in a sense the job he had done. Even Eisenhower couldn’t make that claim.
One of the main costs of Trump’s surprise victory was that it denied President Obama this kind of ratification, and I remember really feeling the sting of that in the weeks after the 2016 election. It wasn’t just that his accomplishments would be unraveled by a spiteful Trump, but also that it would be an indelible mark against Obama for history. It’s one reason why Hillary Clinton apologized so profusely to Obama for losing.
Joe Biden understands that there are a lot of Democrats who felt and still feel the way that I did.
“Joe Biden is finalizing the framework for a White House campaign that would cast him as an extension of Barack Obama’s presidency and political movement. He’s betting that the majority of Democratic voters are eager to return to the style and substance of that era — and that they’ll view him as the best option to lead the way back.”
“The former Vice President has begun testing the approach as he nears an expected campaign launch later this month. After remarks at a recent labor union event, Biden said he was proud to be an ‘Obama-Biden Democrat,’ coining a term that his advisers define as pragmatic and progressive, and a bridge between the working-class white voters who have long had an affinity for Biden and the younger, more diverse voters who backed Obama in historic numbers.”
This is smart politics on Biden’s part, and it’s a powerful emotional message for Democrats who feel an affinity and fondness for President Obama.
Of course, Joe Biden is a different person. He has a different voting record. He has a different way of interacting with people. Obama frequently listened to his advice without following it. Biden wouldn’t truly be a third term for Obama, but it’s also true that he was shaped and remolded from his experience serving as Obama’s vice-president. He’s more a product of that political movement at this point in his career than a Delaware senator.
A lot of analysts seem surprised that Biden is consistently leading in the polls, and most appear to believe that his lead will slip and disappear. I think he’s starting from a very strong position, and it’s mainly because of his connection to Obama in the voters’ minds. Obama will never be able to erase the blemish of Trump on his legacy, but a Biden presidency would effectively be the American people admitting they made a mistake with Trump.
A lot of Democrats couldn’t care less about any of this and are more forward-thinking. Their biggest problem is that they have so many candidates to choose from that it’s difficult to build a movement to match what Biden can bring to the table.
I still think Biden is going to be formidable if he enters the race, and I think he’s figured out his biggest asset.