There’s evidence is support of either party exceeding expectations in the upcoming midterms, which is why I’m a little confused that seemingly every reputable or semi-reputable prognosticator is saying the tide is turning the Republicans’ way. It could be armageddon.
"The new WSJ survey shows white suburban women (20% of the electorate) favor Republicans for Congress by 15 points, moving 27 pct points away from Dems since August poll."
God help us if this is true. https://t.co/6FLvAFtte7
— Martin Longman (@BooMan23) November 2, 2022
But the Democrats are noting that they have their usual early voting advantage, and that many of the better pollsters are showing some good, or at least modestly encouraging, results in many key races.
What has me worried more than anything else is just the general trend of the polling. If there’s late movement, it doesn’t appear to be favoring the Democrats. The likely voter models seem to pretty consistently look better for the Republicans than the registered voter numbers, which indicates a possible differential in turnout enthusiasm. Relatedly, early youth turnout is down, although they strongly prefer the Democrats and say they’re going to vote. On the other hand, young voters really don’t like the job Joe Biden is doing.
Also troubling, issue polling is pretty emphatic that inflation is a bigger driver of voter preference than abortion, democracy or any other factor, especially among independents. Relentless crime messaging by the GOP is probably having an impact, too.
Yet, to be truthful, while I’m prepared for a possibly fatal blow to our country next Tuesday, the available evidence isn’t so one-sided that I feel safe predicting it. More likely than not is a reasonable guess, but outlets like Axios aren’t justified in saying, “just about everything is breaking in Republicans’ favor.” In some places, like Nevada, it seems like the Republicans peeked last week and the movement is currently more toward the Democrats. There’s also a lot of junk polling, and the preponderance of it seems to be produced by Republican-aligned outfits.
However you feel about it, most of the really crucial races look very tight, which means we could be seeing some late calls and even some recounts. That means all the usual election strategies still apply, and it’s possible that knocking a few doors or making a few calls or dragging a few adult children to the polls could make a difference in some races. So, rather than making yourself crazy, it’s best to keep active.
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Good advice! Helps with the vote on close elections and helps with the sanity – so we’re not fixated on the damn horse race and bad polling news.
I’ve really been struggling to reconcile recent polls with other indicators too. One thing I read or saw in the last few days (can’t remember where) is that suburban republican voters are also voting early and/or voting by mail/absentee, so the high early numbers may not be dominated by democrats to the degree a lot of people are assuming. I honestly don’t know why anyone would choose to stand in a line on election day to vote if their state makes early or mail voting available and convenient.
Also with generic polls on favorability, right track/wrong track, etc., I don’t think these are good indicators of voting trends this cycle because a lot of people are unhappy with both parties and won’t necessarily expect better of the gops simply because Biden isn’t meeting their expectations.
The younger electorate are worrisome though. Left Twitter probably isn’t the best place to get a balanced view of Gen Z and the tail end of Millenials, but I see an almost apocalyptic gallows-humor anticipation at the prospect of the gops taking over everything and burning it all down, or triggering a popular uprising, not sure what they think will happen. I don’t know whether it’s sheer nihilism or a genuine failure to recognize how much worse things can get, and in how much of a hurry.
Let’s hope for the best.
Even if the Dems lose both houses of Congress (I don’t think this will happen), they will still be in a much better position than after the 2018 midterms because they will still control the White House. Where the Trump White House amplified right wing post-election antics in various states, Biden will not stand for them. Any state officials who try to steal an election could find themselves in serious trouble and their jurisdictions under military rule or even martial law.
I took a stroll through the archives and found that Trafalgar Group, which currently holds an “A-” rating from 538, picked Trump to win AZ, NV, WI, PA and GA in their last 2020 poll. Rasmussen had Biden in a double digit lead in the summer of 2020 and worked it down to Biden +1 just before Election Day, noting he needed to be at +3 or +4 to win the electoral vote. None of these pollsters show their turnout models or other internal data, so they could be just guessing or making it up for all we know.
I heard something interesting the other day. If you hear/read something that makes you FEEL before you think, it’s propaganda, and you should treat it as such.
(While writing this, Commander Whiteboots left me a voicemail endorsing Joe O’Dea for Governor. I had already voted for Polis and dropped off my ballot two days ago.)