There are only two reasons why Joe Biden should consider not running for reelection. The first is if he doesn’t think he’s up to four more years in the job. And the second is if he thinks he’s going to lose to Donald Trump but another Democrat would win. Now, I remember when Nate Silver assured me that Trump had only a 20 percent chance of being the Republican Party’s presidential nominee in 2016, so I don’t put much stock his powers of prognostication. But I do not necessarily disagree with him when he says Biden should drop out. Increasingly, I’ve been thinking the same thing.
But when I have that thought, I move to the second or third thought. For example, what do we know about how Vice-President Kamala Harris is polling against Trump in a head-to-head matchup? If that scenario doesn’t look promising, what would Biden’s plan be to guide the convention to a different flag-bearer? Would denying Harris the nomination do too much damage to the cohesion and enthusiasm of the party? For example, if Gavin Newsom were nominated instead of Harris, how would that go over?
Silver doesn’t ask these questions. He just insists that Biden is vulnerable–an underdog, really–because of his age. But age isn’t a knock against Harris. What if her head-to-heads against Trump are the same or even worse than Biden’s? A new Emerson poll has Trump beating Harris and Newsom by bigger margins than Biden, so perhaps age isn’t the core of the problem here. Maybe getting younger isn’t a magic cure for what ails the Democrats. When are we going to grapple with the important “why-in-the-fuck” question of the American people still supporting Trump and his nakedly criminal and fascist movement?
Right now, today, the polls say the pro-Trump coalition is winning and on track to win in November. Is this because the economy is doing badly? Is it because of scandal in the White House?
The strongest thing standing against Trump right now actually is Joe Biden, the president of the United States. So, before we go calling on him to step down, we better have a good idea of how that’s supposed to improve the situation. And I don’t see how it improves the situation.
I can envision best case scenarios, but who is really in a position to navigate the party through to an optimal ticket for the fall? Does President Biden even have the pull and power to push Harris aside and set up an alternate replacement? Because I cannot agree Harris could be part of any optimal ticket.
Since Silver doesn’t ask these questions, it seems more like he’s just taking shots at Biden than offering constructive advice for preserving our form of government past the next election. It’s trollish.
