I wrote this at Bleeding Heartland yesterday:
http://www.bleedingheartland.com/2016/02/29/is-the-gop-headed-for-a-brokered-convention/
Most people really haven’t looked at the delegate math. It is unlikely that Trump will have get more than half the delegates tonight. A shift of 2 points in either direction though could have enormous implications: many states have 20% thresholds, and both Cruz and Rubio are close to them.
I still do not believe Trump will get the nomination.
On the Dem side a 6-5 split for Bernie would be a miracle, and would keep this race very much alive (the idiotic musings of those who never supported Bernie and now pretend that Bernie supporters have any reason to listen to them notwithstanding).
A 7-4 split would be ok. In either event he has to win Michigan to have a real shot. He is behind there, and the numbers don’t look good in general.
But then, as I wrote years ago, there are plenty of instances where primaries turned on a single primary.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/01/31/13451/-A-remembrance-of-primaries-past-why-this-race-is-not
-over
If Trump basically wins a plurality of the vote in almost all states and TPTB overturn that decision at the convention, the GOP can forget about Trump voters showing up for the “chosen one” in November. They’re already hopping mad about having had McCain and Romney shoved down their throats only to see them lose to a Muslim-atheist-communist-etc black man; so, they aren’t about to get in line and take it a third time. They won’t vote for Clinton, they just won’t vote. Well, unless at the last minute their hatred of Clinton kicks into high gear and the polls of the GOP nominee indicate that he can in fact win, then they’ll come out in droves for him.
It’s a problem to be sure. Amy Walters of the Cook report, and one of the smarter people I have ever talked to, thinks the GOP as it existed really doesn’t exist any more.
I think Clinton hate is more than enough to put it back together one more time. Which may be why Sanders (ie not Clinton) beats Trump this morning 57-40.
So far, reports like this lead a majority of DEM primary voters to stick their fingers in their ears and go “la-la-la.” Seriously, defending a Clinton has gone on for so long that it’s become ingrained as a habit. With a total inability to discriminate between rightwing slander attacks and legitimate criticisms of their words and actions, most of which if done by a Republican they would quickly condemn. Although now I’m not sure any authentic thought goes into their criticisms of Republicans — it may be nothing more than the opposite of if a DEM is for it, I as a Republican am against it. Applying faith-based rationale to politics is never a good approach.
The celebrity aspect of both Clinton and Trump probably deserves an essay.
By someone far smart than me.
She may be a son of a bitch, but she OUR son of a bitch, as LBJ.
I’m sure that many are working on this.
The celebrity culture is different today than it was fifty years ago. LBJ was a New Dealer. Remove Vietnam from his legacy and he would have been one of the greats.
One didn’t become a celebrity in those days by merely being. It was generally either through some work or endeavor that was appreciated by the public or a scandal. But admiration for those that behaved scandalously, absent any work, etc, didn’t happen and their celebrity status was short-lived.
Seems to me that the Clintons are celebrities because they don’t go away and publicize themselves as celebrities.
It’s so puzzling why people keep buying the same crappy brand. The pair now comes down to a Barbie Doll and an Old Man. That may be why they’re trying to get the Kid in on the act: a nice D.C. post while she does foundation work off hours> I’m an old man with neither Barbie doll nor kid.
Once I took note of the fact that there was something called The Duggars and Honey-Boo-Boo not just within the consciousness of millions of Americans but that they cared enough to watch whatever it is these people are recorded doing, I suddenly realized how much today is totally incomprehensible to me. Actresses today not only have to work at their craft but also show up at countless awards and public appearance events looking like runway models/clothes racks or hookers. How undignified.
The GOP lucked out with their longing for Reagan after he left office because he was too gaga to ever return for real. A high percentage of DEMs for some mysterious reason can’t get enough of the Clintons. They were never cool nor even particularly interesting. (At least Obama qualifies somewhat on both of those measures.) Then again, Bill’s legendary charisma always seemed like hype to me.
But-but-but she’s the electable one!
DNC Chair Joins GOP Attack On Elizabeth Warren’s Agency
Billmon has signed off. He can see much further down the road than most DEMs/liberals/lefties. Can’t say that he’s ever been wrong — only that he doesn’t hang on when the thread becomes slender.
Maybe he just realized that twitter is an unsatisfactory and unsatisfying way of getting out a message, communicating.
That was true when he closed the Whiskey Bar. Yet somehow, that’s not how I read his last twitter entry. Hope I’m wrong because he’s helped to keep me sane since the day he arrived at dKos Oct/Nov 2002.
My sense is that he’s heartsick. His tolerance for racism, ignorance, US military adventurism, killing, and destruction, and business/government greed and corruption is lower than mine and mine’s pretty low. One must be delusional not to recognize that the insanity of a presidential election with the declared viable candidates all being unsuitable for any public office. They along with their corporate and religious masters have no intention of doing anything positive and proactive on the myriad of problems that confront us and the world. At best, they’ll just preside over the slow collapse. At worst, they’ll help speed it along.
Tough for those with a conscience to live in this country today unless one tunes it all out.
Sanders closing in on 5 if he wins in MA. Yeah baby.
Hillary isn’t going to come close to her ’08 MA vote tally (which she won by almost 200 thousand votes).