If I were Bob Menendez, head of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), I wouldn’t necessarily be interested in moving the Senate in a progressive direction. What I would want to do is take over as many Republican seats as possible in 2010 in order to cripple opposition to the Obama administration and to take advantage of a third straight favorable political season before the tide turns back in the Republican’s favor in 2012. My goal would be to win a net of eight seats, giving the Democrats a true supermajority of 67 seats. Now, how would I get there? Let’s look at the races.
Indiana: Evan Bayh is a strong candidate who will be very difficult to defeat. I’d like to see a progressive challenger just to hold Bayh’s feet to the fire, but Menendez just wants this race to take care of itself.
Colorado: Michael Bennet just won an appointment to this seat. If I’m Menendez, I’m hoping that Bennet emerges as a good senator that can raise money for his own defense of this seat. I’d look for signs of weakness, especially if the Republicans come up with a strong challenger, but I’d look to strengthen Bennet and discourage primary contenders.
Utah: Robert Bennett is getting old and might retire. But this seat should be safe for the Republicans even if it becomes an open seat. Just in case, I’d keep in touch with Rep. Jim Matheson. It doesn’t hurt to plan for success. If the political climate moves strongly in Obama’s direction, no seat will be safe for the Republicans.
Missouri: Kit Bond is retiring and the Democrats already have their top recruit in Secretary of State Robin Carnahan. This is one of the top races for 2010.
California: Barbara Boxer should be safe but the Republicans will give her a run for her money. Carly Fiorina or Arnold Schwarzenegger could be strong contenders.
Kansas: Sam Brownback is retiring to run for governor. Recent polls show that Gov. Kathleen Sebelius would be an early favorite to win this seat. She must be recruited because no one else is likely to make this race competitive.
Kentucky: The Republicans want Jim Bunning to retire. If he does not, this seat will almost definitely be won by the Democrats. If I’m Menendez, I get behind Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo, who almost beat Bunning six years ago. However, Rep. Ben Chandler and State Auditer Crit Luallen are also formidable recruits.
North Carolina: Richard Burr could be vulnerable. The Democrats have a wealth of potential opponents, including Reps. Brad Miller and Heath Shuler. If I’m Menendez, I encourage all the strong candidates to enter the primary and then embrace the winner.
Idaho: Mike Crapo is unbeatable. I’d find a candidate to run in case of scandal, but I would not otherwise waste any resources on this race.
South Carolina: I’d like to make the defeat of Jim DeMint a high priority, but I don’t know of any good candidates that can get the job done.
Connecticut: Chris Dodd has shown some weak poll numbers lately and could face a fairly strong challenge from former Rep. Rob Simmons. This is a defensive race to keep an eye on. It’s also possible that Dodd will retire.
North Dakota: Byron Dorgan is very popular but he can’t be considered too safe in such a conservative state. This is a race that Menendez needs to be prepared to defend.
Wisconsin: Russ Feingold is in good position to win reelection, but Rep. Paul Ryan could make it interesting if the political climate turns ugly for the Democrats.
Iowa: Chuck Grassley might retire. If he doesn’t, there is no point in contesting this race. If he does, this becomes one of the hottest races in the country. Menendez needs to be prepared to recruit a top notch candidate.
New Hampshire: With Judd Gregg joining the Obama administration, this race will be open in 2010. I’d recruit Carol Shea-Porter because she’ll have an easier time winning statewide than Paul Hodes, but Hodes will make an excellent recruit, as well.
Hawaii: Dan Inouye is getting up in age but says he is going to run again. If he does, he wins. If he doesn’t, this race could become unexpectedly competitive. Gov. Linda Lingle is a Republican.
Georgia: Johnny Isakson could be vulnerable. Maybe Jim Martin could win this seat. In general, Georgia is a tough state with a weak Democratic bench.
Delaware: Ted Kaufman is not running for reelection. It looks like this race will go to Beau Biden.
Vermont: Patrick Leahy should be safe.
Arkansas: Blanche Lincoln should be safe but Mike Huckabee could make things interesting.
Florida: Mel Martinez is retiring and there will be a competitive primary. Whoever wins is going to need a ton of money.
Arizona: John McCain says he plans to run for reelection. I’m not so sure. We need to be prepared if the seat comes open.
Maryland: If Barbara Mikulski retires, I recruit Chris Van Hollen to replace her.
Alaska: Lisa Murkowski might get a primary challenge from Sarah Palin. With that amount of blood on the ground, it’s imperative that the Dems have a good recruit in place to take advantage. Maybe Ethan Berkowitz?
Washington: Patty Murray could get a strong challenge from Dave Reichert.
Nevada: Harry Reid is supposed to be vulnerable but the Republicans have no decent challengers.
New York: Chuck Schumer is safe.
New York: Kirsten Gillibrand might get a primary. I wouldn’t interfere.
Alabama: Richard Shelby is very popular at home and is increasingly powerful in the GOP caucus. I’d recruit Commissioner of Agriculture Ron Sparks to run against him.
Pennsylvania: Arlen Specter says he is running again. I think Rep. Patrick Murphy would clean his clock. I would recruit him over other candidates.
South Dakota: John Thune is safe.
Louisiana: David Vitter likes to wear diapers. Don Cazayouz might be a strong recruit.
Ohio: George Voinovich is retiring. I would support Tim Ryan as the strongest recruit.
Oregon: Ron Wyden should be safe.
Illinois: There is going to be a primary in Illinois and there is no point in pretending otherwise. If I am Menendez, I ask the contenders to keep the contest as civil as possible and embrace the eventual winner.
Oklahoma: Tom Coburn might retire. If he does not, this race could become competitive if either Gov. Brad Henry or Rep. Dan Boren is willing to enter the race. I would recruit Henry before Boren. If neither of them is willing to run the race is probably hopeless, but I’d ask state Rep. Andrew Rice to give it a second go.
Here is how we win a net of eight seats. We hold all the seat we currently own, and we win the following (in order of probability).
1. Ohio
2. Missouri
3. New Hampshire
4. Kentucky
5. Florida
6. Louisiana
7. Kansas
8. Pennsylvania
And, since it is hard to run the table, it’s important to look for opportunities in Alaska, South Carolina, North Carolina, Oklahoma, and Georgia.
I live in CA. Carly Fiorina is a joke and would have no shot against Boxer. Schwarzenegger is the only real competitor, but he’d lose as well. He’s never faced a big name Democrat before, and this state is 60% Democratic.
I think the Dems may lose 2-3 of their current Senate seats. Can’t say which ones, though Chris Dodd is the weakest link at this point. But, we can still get above 60 by winning a few other seats – Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania.
I know some folks (well, Republicans) are talking about a repeat of 1994 but I have a hard time seeing that happen so soon after the Bush disaster. And, I think Obama and Plouffe will use their full abilities to get the Dems out in full force. We just need a few more major legislative victories to hang our hats on.
Arnold will be forever attached to the State budget disaster we are now going through. He’d be easy to whack.
Arnold Schwarzenegger could be strong contenders
After he’s helped drive the state into the ground? He can play the media game pretty well, but his track record is terrible.
And I like these kind of posts. So much information!
To the extent that you are using the House for your bench, who would you have to backfill those positions.
It would not be helpful to lose a House seat in a failed attempt to get a Senate seat.
And in North Carolina, the best candidate is current Attorney General Roy Cooper. His replacement would most likely be a strong Democrat. Burr, the inventor of the anti-immigrant campaign in his desperate and successful attempt to beat Erskine Bowles, has one major problem now. There are more Latino voters in North Carolina now than when he ran. And they will not forget his campaign.
Heath Shuler? In the Senate? I’d rather see him quarterback the Niners, if you know what I mean.
Shuler’s not going to make it through the primaries.
The big question is who’s going to backfill Shuler’s House seat if he runs. Or who’s going to primary his House seat if he doesn’t.
The guy is a closet Republican. His voting record has turned hard right recently. I’d almost rather see the seat go to a Republican than to Shuler. And yes, I said almost.
A state that elected Kay Hagan can elect someone much more progressive than Heath Shuler.
On Shuler as a closet Republican:
Than Rahm for that choice.
Interesting post, well thought out.
But why Murphy for PA and not Sestak? I’m not objecting, just wondering what your reasoning was.
Murphy is generally better on the issues, although not across the board. But he’s a very good campaigner and Sestak is not.
pat murphy’s conservatism and military record would help him in a fight against specter, especially in NE and western PA, and the fact that he’s more reliably pro-choice and pro-gay rights would help in the cities.
I think the key for specter is finding a credible challenge from the right wing too, to attract independendent and hard-core conservatives, whi don’t really like arlen’s dealmaking. Toomey nearly beat him last time, and it took the combined efforts of Bush and Santorum visiting the state to save specter’s bacon.
I’m not willing to help Patrick directly (I don’t support people that don’t believe in the entire constitution), but I’m more than willing to attack arlen.
If only I could ever learn to do it, I’d publish a diagram of the “magic bullet” and maybe then people would stop treating Specter as anything more than an accessory-after-the-fact.
I grew up on the border of ND and still have ties to the area which I only left a few years back.
The stimulus is doing very badly there. Dorgan and Conrad are trying to sell it but it is not working and people are mad. This not just because the state is crazy libertarian (and would prefer to lose population than spend money so young people don’t leave the area) but because 1) oil boom out west, calming down now 2)the state is running a budget surplus 3) the economy across the state is not shrinking much it’s usually in neutral (Fargo) or growing slowly (Grand Forks) because there was very little bubble (kind of like Canada). Be interesting to see what would happen if Obama came there, even to Fargo, a city and county he won 53-46%
A friend of mine, who’s worked constantly as an engineer since he got out of college, got walked to the door this week with a cardboard box of his stuff. His company did design work for GM. He did nothing wrong but to run into a Depression.
He’s got a few months until he loses the house he’s lived in for decades. He’s almost old enough to retire. “Thanks for a lifetime of work. Here’s your kick in the ass.”
If the people in North Dakota are so petty that they are incapable of understanding and feeling sympathy for what’s going on across the rest of the country, the world, then they are excellent candidates for being Republicans.
You forgot Maine. Its time has come.
Collins just reelected and Snowe isn’t up until 2012.
That was a huge missed opportunity. Collins should have been toast after voting with Bush 95% of the time.
Meh. I don’t mind Collins that much. She’s useful.
It would have been nice to beat her but it will also be fun to see her screw the GOP over and over again.
re: bennett [d-co] should comfortably win unless he really screws up, and l mean royally. he was very well received on his statewide tour w/ ritter after the appointment, and he’s got some very serious $’s behind him, not to mention his own fortune…which is rumoured to be substantial.
a primary challenge is his biggest danger, because the RAT’s got nuthin’:
tancredo [nuff said], beauprez [2x loser], mcginnis [gimme a break], and another 2 time loser [cd5] rayburn?…talk about the bottom of the barrel….¡jezeus!
yeah, the Republican bench in Colorado is depleted.
But Bennet isn’t a politician so we’ll have to see how he does.
patrick murphy over joe torsella?
you really need to get to meet joe torsella…he is far and above the better person for the job as senator….i mean if we want a progressive in the job.
i know patrick is your friend but he needs a spanking in my opinion.
I’m open-minded, but I was placing myself in Menendez’s shoes in this piece. And Patrick is a really good campaigner with excellent statewide appeal. It’s hard to believe anyone else has better odds of winning that he would.
Looks like Menendez is as optimistic as you are, Boo…and he’s mentioning mostly all your same states as real opportunities for the Dems in 2010.
Heh.
Yeah, I just noticed that on my own.
I feel like Menendez might have actually read this piece.