It seems less and less likely with every passing day — hell, with every passing hour — that Newt Gingrich will survive the gang beatdown he’s being subjected to right now and go on to win the Republican presidential nomination (see yesterday’s all-Newt-hate Washington Post op-ed page; see also the forthcoming all-Newt-hate issue of National Review).
But if Gingrich does — somehow — survive this Establishment gang attack, will the party even support him?
Here’s a scenario I’m imagining:
If Gingrich really is unstoppable, the real GOP money — from the Rove-connected Crossroads groups and other super PACs — may simply dry up for him. Where will it go? I know everyone mocks this Americans Elect thing, but the group is well funded. What if GOP insiders game the AE nominating process to get a candidate who’s to their liking chosen as the nominee — Daniels, Christie, Barbour, Jeb Bush, Rubio, Jindal, Huntsman? And what if the “Democrat” who fulfills AE’s quest for a bipartisan ticket is … Joe Lieberman?
I think GOP establishment figures might get behind such a ticket — and I mean really get behind it, with serious money and all kinds of support. And then the party can just somehow fail to help Gingrich in any way. I’m thinking of the way the guy who had the ballot line in the 2006 Connecticut Senate race, Alan Schlesinger, effectively disappeared, as the Vast Right-Wing Conspiracy cheered on Lieberman against Ned Lamont. Schlesinger got less than 10% of the vote.
Now, Gingrich won’t take a dive, the way Schlesinger seemed to. But if the party and its donors refuse to finance him, if party opinion-shapers continue to attack him, and if the leaders and pundits get behind the AE effort, I think Gingrich’s numbers could be driven down to the single digits.
For what it’s worth, yesterday Charlie Pierce posted an MSNBC clip in which Chuck Todd speculated that an anti-1% sentiment might drive a third-party bid to some success at the polls. I think minor parties can have an impact this year, but I don’t think this is why. I do think Rocky Anderson, or some other Nader wannabe, will get some Occupy/Firedoglake love at the polls. But the teabaggers aren’t angry at the 1%. The libertarians aren’t angry at the 1%. The young Paulites seem to be more interested in ending militarism and legalizing hemp than seriously curtailing fat-cat excess (which Paul himself has no intention of curtailing, of course). The general public still — still — hates “big government” more than big business, according to Gallup, and even though they seem to recall their class resentments when reminded of them by pollsters, they never vote in any way that reflects those resentments. And Americans Elect is going to be about centrism at best and conservatism at worst; it’s going to be about opposing “business as usual” without the slightest understanding of why “business as usual” is the way it is (and without the slightest recognition that the people on the ticket are part of the problem).
And if my cockamamie theory is correct, Americans Elect might just be the real GOP this year.
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On the other hand, if the GOP insiders do successfully kneecap Gingrich, I think we should all join Americans Elect and say that Gingrich is our choice for the top of AE’s ticket. Between us and the remaining Newt true believers in the GOP, we might just be able to get him selected. And you know he’ll accept the nomination, because he’ll do anything for publicity. Then we’ll have Mitt and Newt siphoning votes from each other. Fun!
(X-posted at No More Mister Nice Blog.)
Like the Tea Party was the real GOP two years ago?
Don’t forget how HolyJoe became the de-facto GOP nominee for Senate in CT back in 2006.
That would make it even more impossible to argue that political parties are ideological in nature and not just venture capital endeavors.
I’m holding out for the Sam Waterston/Jason Sehorn ticket.
Booman, did you notice the byline in the article you linked too?
“Just what Americans yearn for: A high-tech presidential ticket funded by secret Wall Street money”
Secret Wall Street Money doesn’t care if Gingrich had 3 wives, or annoys lots of people, or is abrasive towards his fellow GOPers. They are unconcerned that he lobbied for Freddie Mac. Secret Wall Street Money really doesn’t care if Obama is defeated or reelected. Policy wise, both Obama and Gingrich would move heaven and earth to bail out the banks. So I don’t think the function of Americans elect is there to prevent Gingrich’s election.
Also, I notice you did not comment about how our constitutional scholar president now intends to sign the National Defense Authorization Bill. Would a President Paul sign it?
Did you notice the byline on this post? Not Booman.
I enjoy political speculation about as much as anyone, but I think at this point it’s probably best (both for our own sanity, and for the political work we have ahead of us next year) to try to suspend judgment and let some real live Republican voters actually, ya know, vote.
And yes, I know it’s the Iowans (who love to vote for candidates like Pat Robertson, Mike Huckabee, Steve Forbes and Pat Buchanan) who vote first.
I suspect, like most years, after Iowa and New Hampshire, we’ll be down to 3, or at most 4, Republican candidates—with a decent chance it’s down to 2 serious candidates after the Nevada caucuses on Feb. 4.
We’ll have plenty of time to speculate in February….
You’d have to account for all the states where they simply press the button or whatever for “Straight Republican Ticket”, especially those who only vote because Eek! Abortion!
CT is not one of those states.
Am I mistaken or does American Elect have a completely opaque internet voting mechanism? They have said that if they deny either candidate an electoral majority, they will decide which to throw their electors to to keep the election out of the House. On the basis of Internet voting verified by no outside party or process? This sounds like a recipe for shenanigans.
I’m not clear why opaque is bad. Greenspan was clear that for financial markets an “invisible hand that is irredeemably opaque” had done a fine job except for the ‘notably rare exceptions’ when the world financial system melted down. So it seems clear that this internet voting thing by a secretly funded group of Wall Street titans should be fine. Of course we should trust them.
I’m sorry that “notably rare exceptions” fell out of fashion as a meme. Like, “With notably rare exceptions, Mrs. Lincoln enjoyed the play.”