I went over this last week when I wrote The House Freedom Caucus Approaches a Reckoning, so I don’t want to reinvent the wheel here. But I’m beginning to see analysis similar to my own in the reporting of the major newspapers. For example, Carl Hulse of the New York Times has a piece today that touches on most of my themes. Its basic format is to highlight a growing self-awareness among congressional Republicans that they’re behind schedule and don’t have a good plan for completing their work. And this explains why Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell just cancelled the first two weeks of the traditional August recess.
The topline concern is obviously that they have not passed a health care reform bill in the Senate, which is something they knew they’d take heavy criticism for if they went on a month-long vacation. But if you take a look at what McConnell wants to accomplish between now and mid-August, you should get an overwhelming sense that an extra two weeks of work time won’t be sufficient.
Mr. McConnell said the early August agenda would extend beyond health care, which Senate Republicans still hope to finish off next week. He ticked off a few other measures, including an always contentious debt limit increase, a usually bipartisan Pentagon policy bill and an important piece of legislation for the Food and Drug Administration.
“Not to mention all of these confirmations that are backlogged,” he said. “We intend to fully utilize the first two weeks in August.”
Even if they make significant progress in their additional weeks of work, which remains an open question, Republicans face continued difficulties.
For instance, House Republicans on Tuesday rolled out a Homeland Security measure that would provide $1.6 billion in “physical barrier construction along the Southern border.” In other words, it would fund the wall sought by Mr. Trump but vehemently opposed by Democrats in the House and Senate as well as by some Republicans.
That dispute could start a spending impasse, which could lead to a government shutdown after Sept. 30. Such a result would put many federal workers on an unwanted recess of their own, no matter how long senators stick around in August.
As far as I can discern, the Republicans have no strategy or even any clearly articulated plans for winning over Democratic votes for any of these measures. Obviously, they have no Democratic votes to repeal Obamacare. They have no Democratic votes that I’m aware of for building a border wall. They haven’t promised the Democrats a clean debt ceiling bill, and without one they’re unlikely to get any Democratic votes for that. It’s possible that they’ll get more help on the FDA bill and the Pentagon bill, but it’s unclear if the Democrats will allow them to proceed to them without overcoming procedural hurdles and delays. They have not cut a deal with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer that would allow them to quickly move their appointments and nominees. They also have a budget to pass and thirteen appropriations bills, most of which will probably never see the light of day.
How much of this can they pass without Democratic help, and how much of what they can pass can they get done by mid-August? I suspect the answer to those questions is “not much.”
On health care, McConnell is pretty desperate to pass something even if it is a dead letter in the House. The House passed a bill their members hated because of the same consideration. Better to leave the steaming pile on the Senate’s plate than to fail outright and take all the responsibility for failure. If McConnell can return the favor, he will. But his goal is more ambitious, which is to pass something that is so acceptable to the House Republicans that they’ll agree to rubber-stamp it without amendments.
How he can make the bill palatable enough to both moderates and conservatives to accomplish this is anybody’s guess, but the Medicaid issue alone seems to make this an impossible task. There are still a bunch of possible outcomes. He could announce that his caucus can’t come to an agreement and cancel the vote. He could schedule a vote he knows will fail just to put everyone on the record (although this is highly unlikely). He could convince his caucus to pass something that some of them hate on the promise that the House won’t pass it without amendment. Or he could find the magic solution that allows for repeal that no one can seem to see on the horizon.
Given how much he wants to get done, you can be sure that he won’t want to use all his available time on health care. His problem is that he’ll face the same headaches when he moves to the next issues.
They crafted a legislative strategy premised on the idea that they would not need any Democratic support for any of it. They way this is turning out, it looks like nearly the opposite is true.
Personally, I predicted back in December/January that the ACA would survive. I did so based upon my own personal analysis of the situation, because there was no other writer or pundit who was saying this, aside from Jonathan Chait in New York Magazine. But it was clear to me that there was no way they could possibly gut the ACA without paying a gigantic political penalty for it, and they knew it. It appears that I am about to be proven right. The truly amazing thing is that the House passed their bill in the first place. I have never seen such a bunch of political lemmings. And now we Democrats will get the best of both worlds: a millstone to hang around moderate Republicans’ necks in the midterms for a horrible bill that will never become law.
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If they are as f$#@ed on the other issues as they are on health care, 2018 will be a tsunami indeed.
If they are as f$#@ed on the other issues as they are on health care, 2018 will be a tsunami indeed.
I disagree re: the second half of the statement. If Booman can show me that his Congressional district is in danger then I’d believe it. But the election is still 18 months away.
I might live in Booman’s congressional district, though it’s a little hard to tell because they are so insanely gerrymandered. Anyway, I live in PA-7. But the moderate PA reps were actually smarter than most, and knew not to vote for the AHCA. So they have a little better chance of surviving than some others. But the moderate reps in NJ, and CA, and the scattered few elsewhere who voted for this thing… they are in deep, deep trouble. All the signs are there, and if anything, it’s only going to get worse, for all the reason’s he’s been talking about for the last few months.
PA-6 is Booman’s district. It’s not any big secret as its been talked about before. Ryan Costello is the present Representative. PA will be interesting next year as Wolf is up for re-election. That will certainly help more people turn out. Whether that bodes well for Wolf and the Democrats remain to be seen. I hope so though!!
I’m not predicting the 2018 outcome of PA-6, but I’m willing to predict that the American people will bring these shenanigans to an end. The fact that the election is 18 months away is the very fact that gives me the most hope.
Congress is not going to complete legislation which the voters find appealing. They don’t have any popular ideas on their agenda. They’ll make voters unhappy though action or inaction.
It has become clear that the Trump Administration will not get their management shit together. Add to that another thing which has become clear: they have done, and will continue to do, a bunch of nasty stuff that will keep them embroiled in ever-deepening scandal.
By November 2018, many more facts will be known.
Even if Trump’s base were to largely hold, that will still not be enough. Their fury will cause them to be so separated in their rhetoric and worldview from even moderate independents that they’ll have a near impossible time persuading anyone outside that base.
I don’t believe they’re going to be able to suppress enough voters to brazen it out successfully thru the next two elections. It appears that they will that strategy a shot, though.
These people, drunk with their delusions, have become unmoored from The American Idea. It’s not shocking that they are now drinking deeply from the toxic brew they and Putin mixed together.
And just so you are all up on the latest Donald Trump just revealed that he’s sitting at his desk, ready to sign that Obamacare repeal bill!
quote:
“I am sitting in the Oval Office with a pen in hand, waiting for our senators to give it to me. For years, they’ve been talking about repeal-replace, repeal-replace. I think they passed it 61 times, repeal and replace, but that didn’t mean anything because you had the minority, the Republicans, they didn’t have the majority so it wasn’t going to get to the President, but if it ever did, Obama wasn’t going to sign it,”
What should scare you, if you are a Republican is the way Trump refers to the (GOP) Congress as they or them. Or as the “the Republicans”, as in he’s not on your team. It’s so revealing of his shifty character. Anyone who would get on the train with this man is a fool. I know that a lot of them ARE on this train unwillingly, and this whole thing plays like he’s doing a hostile takeover of the GOP, but sooner or later self-preservation needs are going to be kicking in for many of these people.
Trouble is, for a lot of them, self-preservation means continuing to kiss up to Trump in order to placate his rabid base, or be primaried into oblivion.
I do hope you are right about the ACA repeal bill. I am still urging caution until we get to at least the August Recess (when and if that recess occurs). In the meantime, yes, our party has something to use against Republicans in Congressional districts throughout the US. Healthcare is going to be the proverbial iceberg for the GOP in the next couple electoral cycles. More harbingers of good tidings: Democrats won two state legislative seats in Oklahoma’s special election yesterday. These were seats previously held by Republicans and considered “safe” seats in deeply Red Oklahoma. Each special election race is unique, and again, caution is usually advised. However disappointed many may have been at US Congressional district special elections that just didn’t quite pan out, the record on the state legislative level this year is more upbeat. More importantly, these are the sorts of seats you want to see a party pick up, because those are essentially the seats where a party builds up its bench over the long haul. I like to look ahead, so yesterday’s wins deep in Trump territory are good ones.
I think the two weeks will be cancelled and they’ll go on vacation as originally planned. McConnell is blowing smoke.
Do the Democrats have a maximalist strategy for what they will expect to join votes. Letting members “vote their consciences” (the euphemism, not the reality) does not look like a great strategy in these circumstances because it sacrifices unity.
The GOP legislative strategy reflects their long-standing, supreme arrogance and complete disregard for any American who is not rich and conservative. So, they propose an utterly destructive legislative agenda and pretend it has great support among voters. Why would it? But bad enough though their legislative agenda may be, at the other end of PA Ave., you have monumental corruption, treason and incompetence. In addition, a Cabinet that was picked to undermine or undo a lot of popular programs. While none of this matters to the GOP Base, why do we assume that the GOP Base is a majority of likely voters, especially in the mid-terms? I don’t think we will see a slaughter but I do think we will see some serious erosion in both the House and Senate.