The Israeli cabinet has acquiesced to an American demand (on the Palestinians’ behalf) that they show good faith by releasing 104 prisoners who are serving life sentences for alleged acts of terror committed prior to the signing of the 1993 Oslo Accords. These prisoners have all served at least 20 years in prison. This is an unusual concession from the Israelis because they are not guaranteed to get anything in return.
The renewed peace talks are scheduled to last nine months, and John Kerry is pursuing a new strategy that seems smart to me:
Previous attempts to resolve the decades-old conflict had sought to ward off deadlock and the risk of knock-on violence by tackling easier disputes first and deferring the most emotional ones like the fate of Jerusalem and Palestinian refugees.
This time “all of the issues that are at the core of a permanent accord will be negotiated simultaneously”, Silvan Shalom, a member of Prime Minister Binyamin Netayahu’s cabinet and rightist Likud party, told Army Radio.
Secretary Kerry hopes to give more leeway to the negotiators to make concessions by keeping the issues under discussion secret, which will make it harder for interest groups to organize against a settlement.
Key to success is convincing the Israelis that the status quo will not hold anymore. The European Union has assisted in this by announcing that they will give no more grant money to any Israeli institution operating in the Occupied Territories and will soon begin labeling the settlers’ exports so that consumers can avoid their foodstuffs. This followed the United Nations granting de facto recognition of a sovereign Palestinian state last November. The main Palestinian concession to the Israelis right now is that they will delay seeking more complete recognition at the United Nations.
Forcing the Israelis to make a big concession upfront will make it harder for them to walk away from talks. There’s another feature to these talks, too, that could help but might hurt. The leadership on both sides has promised to submit any final agreement to a referendum of the people. This should make it easier to make concessions since the final responsibility will be dispersed to the people instead of resting on the heads of a few negotiators. On the other hand, the people could reject the agreement. I expect to see a lot of polling in the coming months that is intended to show what the people on either side will never accept. That will be part of the negotiating process.
I am never an optimist on this topic, but it’s hard to see how Israel can really afford to leave the United States empty-handed this time around and think that everything will be okay.
Things get started tonight with a working dinner at the State Department including Israel’s justice minister Tzipi Livni and special envoy Isaac Molho, and Palestinian negotiators Saeb Erekat and Mohammed Shtayyeh.
Pardon my cynicism, but I think our Christianista Republicans will do everything they can to avoid having any progress be made.
Anything even approaching a more peaceful Middle East, means less chance of the long-awaited Apocalypse these religious morons crave, so that God and Jesus can sweep them up into Heaven, so that they can surround themselves with hateful douchebags.
Yes, but Bibi and those in charge are almost all completely secular. They understand power and politics, and one never knows when various factors will line up in a way that creates a sudden shift.
When they choose Martin “Mr AIPAC” Indyk as their “chief negotiator” it becomes quite, quite clear that things are going to line up pretty much as they always have, and will end with a “generous offer” by the thief consisting of “painful concessions” to “give” the victim of the theft far less than was taken in the first place.
I’ve always considered that believing you could do anything to either speed up or slow down any kind of final judgement to be blasphemous. It is out of your hands and your responsibility is to work to promote peace even if it’s futile. Sometimes especially if it’s futile.
So those beliefs make me very angry, and make it hard to promote peace because of it.
“This is an unusual concession from the Israelis….” Oh please.
In return and simultaneously, Netanyahu has approved tenders for another thousand homes to be built in Ariel (the capital of Samaria or the West Bank, depending upon your view). Kerry just can’t recognize a slap in the face when he sees it.
Oh, I suspect that Kerry is well aware of what is going on, and well aware of what to expect. I think this is just more “Middle East peace” theatre for domestic consumption.
The leadership on both sides has promised to submit any final agreement to a referendum of the people.
Yeah, Naftali Bennett wanted this on the Israeli side. He makes the Teahadists here look like a bunch of Rockefeller Republicans.
Is the US intelligence community on board with this effort?
How quickly will Israel end the illegal embargo on Gaza?
How exactly will the parties guarantee that terms of the talks will stay secret?
If the talks are secret, how will supposed “news leaks” about various terms be vetted for accuracy?
Who is going to play the role of Ariel Sharon in scuttling the talks right before an Israeli election?
I wish Kerry well, but this is a huge diplomatic minefield with lots of hidden interests.
After Jonathon Pollard, I wouldn’t assume the U.S. intelligence community is reflexively pro-Israel.
I remember National Review ranting for years about how those unreliable, leftist Arabists in the CIA were so terribly hostile to Israel.
It’s not that their hostile, just their realpolitik views have led them to conclude that for America, Israel might be more trouble than its worth.
Someone may want to track how long each of those 104 live – I believe the vast majority of them will have “accidents” and “misunderstandings” before 2016…
IIRC, someone said on Twitter last night that about half of those Palestinians in the Gilad Shalit(sp?) swap have been re-arrested. How many of those were for new activity, I don’t know.
… for US public sentiment to allow the US to threaten to withdraw all financial and military support from Israel until it ends the settlements and stops its apartheid policies?
That would solve things instantly and it would also instantly evaporate a massive amount of the motivation driving terrorists to attack the US.
I’m not sure US public sentiment would have as much weight on the US government as the power and money wielded on politicians by AIPAC, ADL, etc.
Good faith would be stopping the colonization of the land they are supposedly negotiating over, not releasing a measly 104 prisoners.