It’s unfortunate that more Americans, including the Americans responsible for crafting our foreign policies, don’t know enough about our history in the Middle East and subcontinent. And if they know little about our history, they know even less about the resentments created by the British Empire. It was a testimony to our unwillingness to learn that the Iranians were able to hold American hostages for 444 days in 1979-1981 without the nation ever really understanding their grievances.
It’s a familiar liberal intellectual refrain that Americans should know about what happened to Mohammad Mosaddegh or about the crimes of the Shah’s CIA and Mossad-trained secret police. I share that view but I also am somewhat bored by it. If you take the U.S. and U.K. out of the equation and just look at the Iranian revolutionary government on its own terms, they’ve now had a 40-year run of abusing the Iranian people. The Shah’s (interrupted) reign lasted only 38 years.
I can certainly understand the sentiment of anyone who would like to see regime change in Iran, especially if it resulted in a truly representative government that turned Iran into a good neighbor dedicated to human rights. But the regime sprang into being and sustains itself off of the history of British and American exploitation and indifference to human rights violations. We are not the right people to effect regime change in Iran.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo just delivered a speech in which he described what he expects Iran to do in order to avoid sanctions.
He insisted that Iran end all nuclear enrichment programs and close its heavy water reactor, saying it did not have the right to such a program. He also appealed directly to the Iranian people, suggesting they should reject the clerical government in Tehran, the capital.
“What has the Iranian revolution given to the Iranian people?” Mr. Pompeo asked at one point, and then offered an answer: “The hard grip of repression is all that millions of Iranians have ever known.”
Iran’s right to enrich uranium, as a signatory to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, is debatable. More than a dozen countries in the world enrich uranium, with several doing so solely for civilian purposes, such as energy generation and medical uses.
But Mr. Pompeo’s speech at the conservative Heritage Foundation was intended to throw down the gauntlet against Tehran, piling on after President Trump’s withdrawal earlier this month from the Iran nuclear deal that was negotiated with world powers in 2015. While he did not directly threaten the use of military force, Mr. Pompeo said that if Iran restarts its nuclear program “we will respond.”
He also demanded that Iran admit to the military purposes of its now-moribund nuclear weapons program, end its support of Hezbollah, Hamas and Yemen’s Houthis, and withdraw all of its forces from Syria.
“You know, the list is pretty long,” Mr. Pompeo conceded. But, he added, “we didn’t create the list. They did.”
These demands have their merits (although Iran does retain the right to enrich uranium for civilian purposes) but they amount to asking the Iranian revolutionary regime to abandon all its foreign policy objectives which no government would ever do. It’s not going too far to interpret that Pompeo is saying that sanctions will remain in effect until there is a change of regime.
To put this in other words, the point of the sanctions is no longer to contain Iran or to prevent them from building nuclear weapons or proliferating nuclear technology. The point is to force a collapse of the government.
If the Iranian people rose up and were willing to die in substantial numbers, this strategy could conceivably work without the U.S. or U.K. having to step in militarily. Of course, the regime survived an eight-year war with Iraq and it has survived isolation and sanctions in the past. It has easily quelled domestic uprisings.
Unfortunately, if we create a logic that only regime change can eliminate sanctions then we’re setting ourselves up to do the regime change ourselves. And I’m not convinced that killing a lot of people is the best way to free them from tyranny.
What’s even more problematic is that we have a tendency to ignore the fact that any truly democratic government in Iran would still have many of the same foreign policy objectives as the present government. A government truly responsive to the people would still cater to national pride and still see uranium enrichment as a national right. It would still be opposed to the Israeli occupation of Palestinian lands and still concerned to promote the interests of the global community of Shiites, whether they live in Afghanistan, Bahrain, Iraq, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Yemen or Lebanon.
I don’t care for religious fundamentalists regardless of where they live, whom they govern, or what sect they belong to, so I have no love for Iranian regime and would be pleased to see them removed from power. I feel the same way about the Saudi Royal Family and the American Republican Party.
That I’d like to see something happen doesn’t entitle me to kill hundreds of thousands of people, however, and we should have learned by now that oftentimes what follows the fall of a terrible regime is worse.
The Iranians were justifiably incensed by the Shah’s reign of terror and rightly blamed the U.S. and the U.K. for imposing and enabling his abuses, and they’re justified in feeling the same way about the revolutionary government that oppresses them now. They’ve had a long string of bad leadership and bad luck, and I have no interest in making this worse.
We should learn the virtues of patience, have some tolerance for risk, and above all learn for once about the concept of hubris.
What’s old is new again.
So stupid and counterproductive.
The USA is now creating enemies left and right, while Russia makes new allies. Makes one wonder if Pompeo is on the take.
I think it is worse than that.
Pompeo knows such an ultimatum isn’t going to induce regime change. Instead it will make the sanctioned country rally around their government, no matter how bad it’s been to them.
The U.S.’s next step is likely already ready to go, it just needs a thin moral justification. This is Pompeo setting up the “We tried and the Iranian people rejected us. So they deserve this too.” excuse to hide behind when the inevitable crisis to follow.
my education!
I came to this country in 1980, somewhat bedazzled by the fall of Nixon, brought about by the intrepid press reporting of Washington Post in particular.
As a PhD student in chemistry, I knew little beyond the world portrayed in Hollywood movies, Washington/Lincoln/Kennedy mythology, and the power of US science and technological advances.
The dark underbelly was completely hidden, perhaps in plain sight. (I was yelled at in 1980 to go back to Iran, though I come from India)
UK was undergoing such upheavals in the 1970s when my father-in-law was a visiting professor at U. Nottingham. My brother-in-law faced a lot of racism (Paki bashing – again a case of mistaken identity – but not as far as Iran is from India) in his high school, till he got protection from a British-African boy who befriended him. But the might of the British empire was in rapid decline by then.
A second backlash was the Brexit vote, but it is more hollow than the backlash unleashed first by the selection of Sarah Palin by McCain (opening the door to all sorts of Tea Party ideologues), but nurtured primarily in the dark recesses of talk radio and Fox News!
It is quite amazing to see how the country that sent men to moon, and satellites to the reaches beyond the solar system has completely reversed its governance, now based on ideology rather than hard facts!
My head spins!
Oh yeah, my head spins as well.
“….the fact that any truly democratic government in Iran would still have many of the same foreign policy objectives as the present government.”
Isn’t that the heart of the matter though? Like any of our third world nation state building attempts, we’ve never been interested in creating truly free and democratic societies. The goal has always seemed to be to just create puppet states we can use as needed.
. . . “democracy” right up until a democratically elected government defies “us” in some way that “we” deem unacceptable.
Then “we” undermine it.
See, for example, . . . [oh, wait, that list is WAY too long for here]
well, the donald could twitter trash talk Iran and drive the price of a gal of gas to $4 by the mid terms. Or drop the bomb now and start a recession before the mid terms.
Don’t they need to be cautious with Iran if they hope to snooker NK into some agreement? Or perhaps they have already given up in anything there.
They haven’t “given up”. National security questions are totally orthogonal to Trump’s agenda.
Policy’s for sale via enhancing Trump’s bottom line.
Russia bought their share on the cheap.
Israel and the House of Saud as well.
NK can probably buy their interests for a song, because this guy is the WORST negotiator.
Iran doesn’t really need to play- but if they’re interested Trump’s telling them they have to pay retail.
Interesing take. Possibly quite true. But I keep seeing these notices that there might not even be a meeting. If money is involved though, no telling what comes out of it. Still, I don’t see NK dealing anything with their nukes. Maybe they will pay to have the sanctions lifted. And then they all swear it was a great deal.
America is flirting with becoming a failed state.
Precisely, and this is what the rest of the world, especially the non-authoritarian West, is having a very difficult time coming to grips with. Not to mention the country itself.
With the resumption of this braindead bellicose neocon blather, the remaining allies of the USA have to start waking up, as AG so often counsels, haha. It is quite clear that the US Congress has long since passed into perpetual failure (especially as regards approving foreign treaties and global initiatives). The hapless US military is beset by universal failure, and demonstrates itself to be wonderful at dropping bombs and destroying infrastructure and Muslim wedding parties, but quite useless in determining strategies to “win” the many wars over which Prussia of the 21st Century fantasizes.
With the “election” of Der Trumper, we have finally attained a true Anti-Prez, an illegitimate imbecile who will successfully destroy all vestiges of the office and its norms and rules of behavior. He has now destroyed the idea that a following administration will respect the foreign policy commitments of prior admins, and so any idea of “reliability” in US foreign policy, especially any policy which attempts to build global or alliance consensus, is now kaput. The “word” of the US is now shit.
The above failure has at its irreducible base, of course, the most critical failure, that of the now hopelessly incompetent and spite-charged white electorate. The nations of the world will soon come to understand that this is a feature, not a bug, and is the result of decades of “conservative” sewage being being forced down the nation’s gullet by the vile “conservative” movement. As Mussolini once ruefully observed, “the human material I have to work with is useless”.
This all points to Failure with a capital “F”, whatever past successes were once obtained and for which world leaders now fruitlessly strain to sense. You’re on your own, past allies—you just haven’t figured it out yet!
Trumper’s exploitation economy continues to perform very well for the nation’s plutocrats, but the great thing about “conservative” macroeconomic policy and its idiotic religion of tax cuts, deregulation and non-enforcement is that it is CERTAIN to result in economic calamity–there are no known exceptions. So as members of the powerless intelligentsia, all one can say is pass the vodka! The “flirtation” is looking to become a serious relationship….
Unfortunately, LosGatosCA…it is not “flirting” with becoming a failed state…that has already happened. Trump is living proof of that, as have been the rash of idiotic mass shootings, the (officially) unchallenged Clapper testimony before Congress regarding mass surveillance, the ongoing imprisonment if not murder of minority people, the collapse of the social infrastructure including the media, educational, banking, insurance and healthcare systems etc., etc., etc., etc., pretty much ad infinitum.
What we are really “flirting with” is recognizing the truth of that failure and then starting to do something about it!!!
The very first, completely necessary step?
Clean out the Democratic Party of corporate-owned and foreign power-owned controllers.
The fish rots from the head.
The Clintons, Schumer, Pelosi, et al?
As long as they are in power, nothing of any consequence will happen. It will be just more Tweedle DemRat and Tweedle DeeRatPub pushing and pulling against one another in a WWF-level fixed fight.
Next bout? The good guys become the good guys and the good guys become the bad guys.
Yawn…
Snore…
Wake the fuck up!!!
AG
The Sunni-Shi’a religious conflict is nearly 1500 years old and is an existential one. The vast majority of Sunni Muslims are peaceful but a radical minority of them demands the extinction of the Shi’a heresy. Needless to say that’s unrealistic to say the least but it is instructive in understanding Iranian foreign policy. They have always been defensive because of their minority religious position. Worse still, they were economically colonized by BP. Then we had the 1953 coup after the war.
That defensive position as the minority Islamic religion also explains why it has aggressively recruited other Shi’a populations (Iraq, Yemen, southern Lebanon). I believe its flamboyant anti-Israeli and anti-US positions are also primarily defensive.
Pompeo may have been a top West Point grad but he clearly lacks a basic understanding of Iranian history. Iran understands that it’s not going to “take over” the Middle East despite its population advantage. It is simply trying to build out a local friendly client states (Iraq and Syria). The US should totally understand that strategy.
“Defensive” is stretching it. We can understand why states do what they do without whitewashing their crimes such as Iran’s active involvement in the massacres and war crimes perpetrated in Syria. Client states are bad no matter who’s in charge of them, especially ones that promote sectarianism to achieve power; Iraqis made that clear in most recent elections that they want Iran and its sectarian clients to fuck off.
Plus things are going to get even more messy as Russia gets tired of Iran’s continued presence in Syria. Iran is there “at request of Assad”, but Putin wants all foreign troops out of Syria (he seems to have left out Turkish troops in his remarks), and Assad would have fallen without Russia’s intervention. Assad and Israel are clearly cool with each other, Bibi and Putin are having bromances of their own, Turkey has carved their own enclave, and now all of these parties will be looking at Iran. Who’s going to blink? What alliances shift as a result? Etc
. . . majority/plurality. So’s Iranian majority.
These facts alone don’t negate the possibility that in the recent Parliamentary elections — in which al-Sadr’s coalition won the plurality of seats —
But they do leave the validity of your statement somewhere short of self-evident. Perhaps farther down in the weeds of Iraqi politics/sectarianism than I’ve been, there are explanations how your conclusion makes sense despite the intuitive skepticism arising from knowledge of the basic demographic realities stated up top. (For example, I would not expect Iranian powers to be displeased by those Iraqi Parliamentary results.) But if so, that explanation needs making.
If you reduce it down to what sect these leaders belong to as opposed to what their government intends to do with state power then yes you’d be left with believing anyone Shi’a would be an Iranian puppet and/or subject to Iranian influence.
I’m not an Iraqi elections expert, but Maliki and Amiri are Iran’s proxy stooges. The election was won on a coalition of non-sectarian nationalists. Sadr is vocally opposed to Iranian influence and the coalition isn’t interested in promoting sectarianism. What actually happens and if it bears fruit remains to be seen.
Here is a good primer: link
. . . provide some support for your conclusion.
If he were successful in bringing his “hopes” in that 2nd graf to fruition, that would be some real improvement. (Hell, it’d be something we could take useful lessons from right here in the good ol’ USofA.)
Well, there was low voter turnout so that’s something to keep in mind, but I think the same rules of elections apply here as there and everywhere: the pols move to where the people are.