To get a sense for how vulnerable the Republican House members are, I looked at every Republican-held seat in the country that has a Partisan Voting Index (PVI) of R+10 or less. The seat the Republicans lost in Mississippi last night has a PVI of R+10. I also added in a few seats that are more Republican than R+10 but which have very well funded Democrats in the race.
As you’ll see there are over seventy-five potentially competitive seats, and another thirty or so that could be competitive if the Dems find a candidate, or if the candidate improves their fundraising, or if the DCCC can devote enough money to make up for a financial disadvantage.
Simply put, the Republicans should be absolutely terrified. More than a third of their seats are in jeopardy.
You can look up the the cash-on-hand for every candidate here. I used the following format for each seat:
Congressional District (CD), Partisan Voting Index (PVI), Incumbent/Open Seat, Challenger, Challenger’s Cash on Hand (COH). Enjoy.
Alabama
CD-02 (R+13)- (Open Seat)- Bobby Bright- COH: 46,000
CD-03 (R+4)- (Mike Rogers)- Josh Segall- COH: 223,000
CD-05 (R+6)- (Open Seat)- R. Parker Griffith- COH: 112,000
Alaska (Primary Date: 8/26/08)
CD-AL (R+14)- (Don Young) – Ethan Berkowitz- COH: 287,000. Diane Benson- COH: 45,000
Arizona (Primary Date: 9/2/08)
CD-01 (R+2)- (Open Seat)- Ann Kirkpatrick- COH: 465,000. Jeff Riley- COH: 216,000
CD-02 (R+9)- (Trent Franks)- John Thrasher- COH: 12,500
CD-03 (R+6)- (John Shadegg)- Bob Lord- COH: 632,000
California (Primary Date: 6/3/08)
CD-03 (R+7)- (Dan Lungren)- Bill Durston- COH: 128,000
CD-19 (R+10)- (George Radanovich)- no challenger
CD-24 (R+5)- (Elton Gallegly, possible retirement. Michael Tenenbaum has COH: 123,000)- Mary Pallant- COH: 10,500. Jill Martinez- COH: 3,000.
CD-25 (R+7)- (Buck McKeon)- Jacquese Lynn Conaway- COH: 151 dollars. Seriously.
CD-26 (R+4)- (David Dreier)- Russ Warner- COH: 244,000
CD-40 (R+8)- (Ed Royce)- No challenger has any COH.
CD-41 (R+9)- (Jerry Lewis, under investigation)- Tim Prince- COH: 107,000
CD-42 (R+10)- (Gary Miller)- Edwin Chau- COH: 32,000. Ron ‘Kossack’ Shepston- COH: 10,000.
CD-44 (R+6)- (Ken Calvert, Abramoff problems)- Bill Hedrick- COH: 12,000. Louis Vandenberg- COH: 10,000.
CD-45 (R+3)- (Mary Bono)- Julie Bornstein- COH: 104,000 (self-funder).
CD-46 (R+6)- (Dana Rohrabacher)- Debbie Cook- COH: 32,000.
CD-48 (R+8)- (John Campbell)- Steve Young- COH: 10,000…and debt of 223,000. Not sure about that story.
CD-49 (R+10)- (Darrell Issa)- Bob Hamilton- COH: 21,000
CD-50 (R+5)- (Brian Bilbray)- Nick Liebham- COH: 240,000
CD-52 (R+9)- (Open Seat, Duncan Hunter’s son running to replace him)- Mike Lumpkin- COH: 80,000
Colorado (Primary Date: 8/12/08)
CD-03 (R+6)- (Marilyn Musgrave)- Betsy Markey- COH: 376,000
CD-06 (R+10)- (Open Seat)- Henry Eng- COH: 13,000
Connecticut
CD-04 (D+5)- (Chris Shays)- Jim Himes- COH- 1,025,000
Delaware (Primary Date: 9/9/08)
CD-AL (D+7)- (Michael Castle)- no challenger has any significant COH. Kossack Jerry Northington is a candidate in the race.
Florida (Primary Date: 8/26/08)
CD-05 (R+5)- (Ginny Brown-Waite)- no challengers with COH.
CD-06 (R+8)- (Cliff Stearns)- no challengers with COH.
CD-07 (R+3)- (John Mica)- no challengers with COH.
CD-08 (R+3)- (Rik Keller)- Charles Stuart- COH: 316,000. James Smith- COH: 296,000
CD-09 (R+4)- (Gus Bilirakis)- John Dicks- COH: 312,000. Bill Mitchell- COH: 149,000
CD-12 (R+5)- (Adam Putnam) no challengers with COH.
CD-13 (R+4)- (Vern Buchanan)- Christine Jennings- COH: 483,000
CD-14 (R+10)- (Connie Mack)- Larry Byrnes- COH: 55,000
CD-15 (R+4)-(Open Seat)- Steve Blythe- COH: 12,000. Paul Rancatore- COH: 6,300
CD-18 (R+6)- (Ileana Ros-Lehtinen)- Annette Taddeo- COH: 300,000
CD-21 (R+6)- (Lincoln Diaz-Balart)- Raul Martinez- COH: 593,000
CD-24 (R+3)- (Tom Feeney)- Suzanne Kosmos- COH: 581,000
CD-25 (R+4)- (Mario Diaz-Balart)- Joe Garcia- COH: 316,000
Idaho
CD-01 (R+19)- (Bill Sali)- Walt Minnich- COH: 328,000
Illinois
CD-06 (R+3)- (Peter Roskam)- Jill Morgenthaler- COH: 163,000
CD-11 (R+1)- (Open Seat)- Debbie Halvorson- COH: 673,000
CD-13 (R+5)- (Judy Biggert)- Scott Harper- COH: 103,000
CD-15 (R+6)- (Tim Johnson)- no challenger with COH.
CD-16 (R+4)- (Don Manzullo)- Robert Abboud- COH: 64,000
CD-18 (R+5)- (Open Seat)- Colleen Callahan- COH: 107,000
CD-19 (R+8)- (John Shimkus)- Joe McMenamin- COH: 98,000
Indiana
CD-03 (R+16)- (Mark Souder)- Mike Montagano- COH: 268,000
CD-04 (R+17)- (Steve Buyer)- Nels Ackerson- COH: 150,000
Honorable mention:
CD-06 (R+11)- (Mike Pence)- Barry ‘Tribber’ Welsh- COH: 20,000
Iowa (Primary Date: 6/3/08)
CD-04 (D+0)- (Tom Latham)- Kurtis Meyer- COH: 108,000
CD-05 (R+8)- (Steve King)- Ron Hubler- COH: 47,000
Kentucky
CD-01 (R+10)- (Ed Whitfield)- no challenges with any COH.
CD-05 (R+8)- (Hal Rodgers)- no challengers with any COH.
Louisiana (Primary Date: 9/6/08)
CD-04 (R+5)- (Open Seat)- Paul Carmouche- COH: 109,000. Willie Banks- COH: 17,000
CD-05 (R+10)- (Rodney Alexander)- no opponent.
Maryland
CD-01 (R+10)- (Open Seat)- Frank Kratovil- COH: 182,000
CD-06 (R+13)- (Roscoe Bartlett)- Jennifer Dougherty- COH: 19,000
Michigan (Primary Date: 8/5/08)
CD-02 (R+9)- (Peter Hoekstra)- Fred Johnson- COH: 3,600
CD-03 (R+9)- (Vernon Ehlers)- no challenger
CD-04 (R+3)- (Dave Camp)- Andrew Concannon- COH: 16,000
CD-06 (R+2)- (Fred Upton)- no challenger
CD-07 (R+2)- (Tim Wahlberg)- Mark Schauer- COH: 751,000
CD-08 (R+2)- (Mike Rogers)- Robert Alexander- COH: 16,000
CD-09 (R+0)- (Joe Knollenberg)- Gary Peters- COH: 645,000
CD-10 (R+4)- (Candice Miller)- no challenger
CD-11 (R+1)- (Thad McCotter)- Ed Kiewall- COH: 7,000
Minnesota
CD-02 (R+3)- (John Kline)- Steve Sarvi- COH: 39,000
CD-03 (R+1)- (Open Seat)- Ashwin Madia- COH: 190,000
CD-06 (R+5)- (Michelle Bachmann)- Elwyn Tinklenberg- COH: 102,000
Missouri (Primary Date: 8/5/08)
CD-02 (R+9)- (Todd Akin)- Byron Delear- COH: 116,000. Dave Pentland- COH: 66,000
CD-06 (R+5)- (Sam Graves)- Kay Barnes- COH: 954,000
CD-09 (R+7)- (Open Seat)- Judy Baker- COH: 188,000. Bob Gaw- COH: 102,000. Ken Jacob- COH: 74,000.
Nebraska
CD-02 (R+9)- (Terry Lee)- Jim Esch- COH: 88,000
Nevada (Primary Date: 8/12/08)
CD-02 (R+8)- (Dean Heller)- Jill Derby- COH: 134,000
New Jersey (Primary Date: 6/3/08)
CD-02 (D+4)- (Frank LaBiondo)- no challengers with COH.
CD-03 (D+3)- (Open Seat)- John Adler- COH: 1,003,000
CD-04 (R+1)- (Chris Smith)- Josh Zeitz- COH: 91,000
CD-05 (R+4)- (Scott Garrett)- Dennis Shulman- COH: 246,000. Camille Abate- COH: 116,000.
CD-07 (R+1)- (Open Seat)- Linda Stender- COH: 845,000
CD-11 (R+6)- (Rodney Frelinghuysen)- Tom Wyka- COH: 13,000
New Mexico (Primary Date: 6/3/08)
CD-01 (D+2)- (Open Seat)- Martin Heinrich- COH: 342,000. Michelle Grisham- COH: 140,000
CD-02 (R+6)- (Open Seat)- Harry Teague- COH: 337,000. Bill McCamley- COH: 236,000.
New York (Primary Date: 9/9/08)
CD-02 (D+2)- (Peter King)- no challenger with COH.
CD-13 (D+1)- (Vito ‘Secret Family’ Fosselli)- Dom Recchia- COH: 325,000. Steve Harrison- COH: 91,000.
CD-23 (R+0)- (John McHugh)- Michael Oot- COH: 15,000
CD-25 (D+3)- (Open Seat)- Dan Maffei- COH: 676,000
CD-26 (R+3)- (Open Seat)- Jon Powers- COH: 402,000. Alice Kryzan- COH: 207,000
CD-29 (R+5)- (John Kuhl)- Eric Massa- COH: 565,000.
North Carolina
CD-08 (R+3)- (Robin Hayes)- Larry Kissell- COH: 131,000
Ohio
CD-01 (R+1)- (Steve Chabot)- Steve Dreihaus- COH: 567,000
CD-02 (R+13)- (Mean Jean Schmidt)- Vic Wulsin- COH: 212,000
CD-03 (R+3)- (Mike Turner)- Jane Mitakides- COH: 164,000
CD-05 (R+10)- (Bob Latta Jr.)- no opponent with COH.
CD-07 (R+6)- (Open Seat)- Sharon Neuhardt- COH: 50,000
CD-12 (R+1)- (Pat Tiberi)- Dave Robinson- COH: 8,000.
CD-14 (R+2)- (Steve LaTourette)- Bill O’Neill- COH: 47,000
CD-15 (R+1)- (Open Seat)- Mary Jo Kilroy- COH: 944,000
CD-16 (R+4)- (Open Seat)- John Boccieri- COH: 250,000
Pennsylvania
CD-03 (R+2)- (Phil English)- Kathy Dahlkemper- COH: 74,000
CD-05 (R+10)- (Open Seat)- Mark McCracken- COH: 3,000
CD-18 (R+2)- (Tim Murphy)- Steve O’Donnell- COH: 200,000
South Carolina
CD-01 (R+10)- (Harry Brown)- Linda Ketner- COH: 130,000
Tennessee (Primary Date: 8/7/08)
CD-03 (R+8)- (Zach Wamp)- no opponent.
Texas
CD-07 (R+16)- (John Culberson)- Mike Skelly- COH: 667,000
CD-10 (R+13)- (Mike McCaul)- Larry Joe Doherty- COH: 122,000
Virginia (Primary Date: 6/10/08)
CD-01 (R+9)- (Bob Wittman)- Phil Forgit- COH: 11,200
CD-02 (R+6)- (Thelma Drake)- Glenn Nye- COH: 223,000
CD-04 (R+5)- (Randy Forbes)- no challenger with COH.
CD-05 (R+6)- (Virgil ‘Nutso’ Goode)- Tom Perriello- COH: 440,000
CD-10 (R+5)- (Frank Wolf)- Judy Feder- COH: 700,000
CD-11 (R+1)- (Open Seat)- Gerry Connelly- COH: 422,000. Leslie Byrne- COH: 237,000. Doug Denneny- COH: 51,000.
Washington
CD-05 (R+7)- (Cathy McMorris Rodgers)- no challenger with COH.
CD-08 (D+2)- (Dave Reichert)- Darcy Burner- COH: 922,000
West Virginia
CD-02 (R+5)- (Shelley Moore Capito)- Anne Barth- COH: 327,000
Wisconsin
CD-01 (R+2)- (Paul Ryan)- Margeret Krupp- COH: 24,000
CD-06 (R+5)- (Tom Petri)- Roger Kittleson- COH: 3,000
Wyoming
CD-AL (R+19)- (Open Seat)- Gary Trauner- COH: 551,000
It looks as if BooTribber Barry Welsh IN-6 might have a good shot at finally unseating Pence this time.
From DownWithTyranny
It also looks like Barry could use a serious cash infusion.
He needs a ton of cash. Like a quarter million.
I’m in NV-2 and I think Jill Derby has a good chance this time around. There are now more Democratic voters than Republican voters in Northern Nevada and they are excited to make some big changes this year. John McCain is not well liked here, so Republicans have little to get excited about.
Politico – GOP Scrambles:
Money quote:
can we spell dire?
Yes. We. Can
One of these days we need to take a swipe at my home district, NC-10.
Maybe 2010.
editgrid
Any chance you could post that info as a spreedsheat? A public post via Google Docs or my new favorite editgrid.com (just like Excel without the Microsoft!) would be helpful to sort the data.
Thanks!