Our country is so screwed up. People hate taxes and they hate stimulus spending so we’re stuck with giant deficits and high joblessness. You can’t fix a problem if the other side refuses to listen to scientists, economists, and experts. If they hold magical concepts in their heads and they refuse to compromise, solutions to problems like climate change become impossible.
If the president thinks he can get free trade deals done, that’s fine with me. Unlike NAFTA, I think these trade deals will help grow exports without hurting our manufacturing base. If he thinks he can get Congress to do patent reform, good, go for it. There’s a good chance he can pass his Returning Heroes Tax Credit that gives businesses an incentive to hire veterans who have served abroad. The president has to work with Congress on the things that can pass, even if they’re collectively inadequate. This isn’t because doing something is better than nothing at all (because that’s not always the case). It’s because we can’t have complete gridlock. The government needs to function on some basic level, even if it only shows the faintest pulse.
But, I have to say, I agree with Christina Romer:
But Christina Romer, who stepped down last year as the chairwoman of the president’s Council of Economic Advisers, said Mr. Obama should fight for short-term spending in combination with long-term deficit reduction.
“Playing it safe is not going to cut it,” said Ms. Romer, a professor of economics at the University of California, Berkeley. “Not proposing anything bold and not trying to do something to definitively deal with our problems would mean that we’re going to have another year and a half like the last year and a half — and then it’s awfully hard to get re-elected.”
There’s the issue of timing, of course. Perhaps the White House can work on some things and get them wrapped up by December before pivoting. But they need a bold plan. They can’t run away from stimulus forever, even if it’s only theatre. If they don’t roll out a bold plan it is going to look like the president isn’t willing to fight for the people who are struggling. Getting things done is the first priority, but winning reelection and retaking control of Congress are the most important things that need to get done. Unless, you know, you think the current iteration of the Republican Party will fix things if they’re back in power…
Something I’ve been reading and hearing more and more lately that I totally agree with is that Obama needs to put together an infrastructure investment DREAM package that will hire millions of unemployed construction workers, promote it heavily and wait for the Republicans to accept or reject it.
Even if it doesn’t pass, he’s got some seriously good ammo for them. “I proposed a package that would employ millions of the hardest hit and they rejected it because they want to destroy this economy for political purposes.”
But at least he would have made a real “jobs proposal.”
You Have to Do something Big EventuallY;
Yeah, so can we give him a minute?
If no one believes a bold proposal will pass the House, but would improve his re-election bid, why demand that he do it NOW? More than a year away from the election? The legislative battle would be a couple of months and then end in defeat. Come election time very few people would remember this “bold” proposal of his so anything BIG should wait so that it can be fresh in people’s minds when they go to the voting booth.
Honestly, I think people need to just simmer down. Lots of panic in the air.
I meant to reply to BOOMAN, not Randy.
Tell that to the millions out of work, asshole! He should start now and repeat it every two months until the election. That way everyone understand very well who is at fault. Practice/repetition makes perfect and all.
Cmon, Calvin. I agree with you, but what’s with the name calling? You know we don’t do that stuff around here.
Calvin is so in touch with the unemployed that he knows they are furiously demanding that the rhetoric that can’t translate into policy begin now, instead of in three months.
Because that’s what the unemployed really want; faster rhetoric.
Sounds like Obama plans to propose new initiatives on a regular basis come September. The first one would seem to be the tax break to hire vets. I suspect that many ideas, like that one, would have broad appeal or have a history of Republican support. If they reject these jobs efforts, the case can be made very clearly and explicitly that they are “putting party before country.”
I’d be curious to hear your thoughts on how these deals differ from NAFTA.
Yeah. Pushing “Free Trade Deals” as job-creators is really a stretch to me, too.
Yes, low-wage job creating measures for foreign countries, but certainly no new jobs here. Exports will not increase at the rate that imports of low-wage-produced goods will because the other country will raise VAT taxes on those imports while dropping their “tariffs.” What a sell-out to Wall Street, who is pushing this shit. This is NOT good for working Americans.
…And to even think of a Free Trade deal with Columbia, who executes anyone considering starting a union, is just absurd, unless you are a Republican.
You don’t need to be an economist or expert in foreign trade to know what a political skunk this is. Go ahead Obama. What a fool.
Well, I for one think Obama’s push for a free trade agreement with Columbia is a great idea. But it pales in comparison with one of his other goals, to secure a free trade agreement with Panama. Panama! That’ll be the the pivot that this nation will hinge on to turn around and Win The Future. Panama! A nation with a GDP equal to that of Vermont (which has the smallest economic activity of all 50 states).
Panama’s output is a little under 0.2% of the U.S, but numbers don’t tell the full story. Panama is a bank haven that corporations use to launder money, and we need more of that given our current economic situation. Panama also has terrific hats, most recently seen on the head of Rupert Murdoch during that overblown press-scandal thingie that nobody should pay attention to.
I think Obama should get on his bus and tour the nation promoting free trade with Panama.
Panama!
You really do understand this stuff. Panama! Easy place to hide or launder money to make sure you never have to pay taxes!
And the South Korea agreement apparently opens the door to using North Korean slave labor to make goods and transfer them through South Korea to the US. So we could be funding Kim Jong Il’s next nuke, because he certainly won’t spend that money to feed the slaves. This is despite the fact that we impose sanctions on them because it’s transferring through South Korea, our new FREE Trade Partner.
But what do I know. Apparently not much.
Go for it, Obama! Win The Future!
I’d also be interested.
One major difference is that the United Auto Workers support the South Korea free trade agreement. I don’t recall them being enthused about NAFTA.
That’s good to hear. This isn’t a subject on which I’m terribly knowledgeable, and unlike some, I actually think that specific knowledge of what’s in a trade deal is necessary before making up my mind about it.
As opposed to merely checking how my gut reacts to the words “trade deal.”
But “Trade Deals” may be worse to people’s ears than “Death Panels” during the employment misery we’re going through now.
If these trade deals are any good, they can wait until after the election because NO ONE who has lived through all of the other “great” trade deals believes the same old horseshit sales job. They just hear the “giant sucking sound” that Ross Perot so wisely pointed out in 1992. Sure, Americans are dumb. But not that dumb.
Well, kneejerk reactions are practically the defining quality of dumb. Getting in a state about “free trade” without seeing the details is just getting set up. We’re not going back to tarrifs, so either we rethink the whole concept of work and workers or we continue to slide no matter what we do on trade. Not that I have any confidence that Obama or anybody else in DC are planning in those “radical” terms.
Objective economic conditions matter more than political messaging.
If the proposed deals can actually create jobs over the next year+, that is far more important than how the term “trade deal” falls on people’s ears.
And do you know why they support the South Korea trade deal?
Because Obama used his Chicago Thug Politics to coerce them into agreeing to the deal! Our unionbusting corporatist thug President is at it again! Primary him now!
…Or, conceivably, they’d like to be able to see GM and Ford sell more cars in South Korea, instead of Hyundai freezing them out.
And you think Ford & GM will make those cars here? Hahahahahahahaha!!!!!!!!!! They’ll make them in China, especially since they both already have factories there.
This is exactly what I was talking about “checking your gut.”
The deal drops Korean tariffs for cars built in America.
You really think the UAW is supporting this deal because the cars will be built in China?
Gee, if only the UAW knew as much about the auto-manufacturing business as you did!
Yes!! The UAW is backing the deal because they don’t want to seem ungrateful after the auto industry got bailed out.
Because the deal will swell the ranks of their union. That’s why.
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"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."No, he isn’t. Read you own article: the deals all still include TAAs, and Baucus put it back in.
Did you think no one would click the link, and we’d all just take your word for it?
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Cross-posted from my recent diary – Big Chunk of GDP and Economic Growth Is Consumer Spending
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."BooMan writes:
Well, it will only look like Obama isn’t willing to fight, so I don’t see a problem.
WIN!
You’re completely right, Booman. 100%. You know what, though? It’s not going to happen. They either don’t get it or they don’t care. My take: they hate (Obama hates) being seen to lose. No one in the White House gets the idea of a principled stand that makes a point. All they see are bills passed and signed. They somehow completely don’t get the theater of politics.
In retrospect it’s been clear from day one. President Obama believes his job is to be a calm, competent leader who gets things done. This does not involve anything like what you propose. It doesn’t involve clearly spelling out or taking a stand on anything, except once in a while when the other parties involved are particularly recalcitrant. Even then, once everyone comes back to the table, communicating the theme or the Big Reasons behind finished products matter less than just getting deals made and counting your little victories. This is all the WH press people have said the whole time, “We got you this and this and this,” never talking about principles or themes, showing why these things matter (or why more is needed).
You’re right, Booman, he needs to make a stand. He can make the Republicans identify completely with their intransigence and thus force them to own a bigger share of our economic mess. It would make a huge difference in the upcoming elections. But he would have to fight, and know going in it that he was going to lose. And so far, I have never seen Barack Obama fight, or ever risk losing. He prefers to put himself ahead of the pack and take what he can get on the margin. It’s not, in the practical politics of the matter, very inspiring.
What’s sad is, in a reasonably sane country the president you describe would be ideal — above petty politicking, a pragmatist who just wants to get stuff done and plan for the long term. But when you’re in an environment where nothing is talked about in terms of substance but everything is talked about in terms of electoral gain and loss, a president is no longer able to do well by doing good. Or even to do much good for long. No president and no congress can govern when a huge minority of elected officials are clinically insane and the rest of their party goes along with them. We really are in the Weimar Republic, or just about.
Steve Benen’s idea needs some action.
I think one could argue the Republican party IS in power, if in a rather limited role.
Calculated RIsk and Krugman have links today to a Times article about the discussions within the White House regarding economic policy. All three are depressing reads.
No, there won’t be a stimulus. Apparently the strong consensus view is that the public wants deficit reduction and that deficit reduction will magically make the economy and job market better.
Wow, for 2012 we get a choice – a President who pushes Republican supply-side economic theory, or a Presidential candidate who pushes Republican supply-side economic theory.
I know Christie Romer. She’s not a friend, but we are colleagues. Here’s a story from her through other friends. Early in the adminstration the unemployment rate came up at a cabinet meeting. Someone said, ‘that’s a political problem.’ Christie said, ‘no, it’s a substantive probblem.’
I think this epitomizes the problem. Obama’s handlers think unemployment is just a political problem, not a human one.
Christie is actually on the conservative end of the liberal economics group. Probably because she’s younger than the rest of us.
Right now, the Congress is meeting their constituents after the debt/deficit deal. It’s too early to tell yet what the public response is, when it is unfiltered–something most GOP members of Congress don’t allow.
In practical terms, increasing exports and tax cuts are the only things the Republicans have left the President for stimulating the economy. Or should I say the Democrats in Congress and the shapers of public opinion have left the President.
But this is August. September is going to be consumed with the maneuvering over the appropriations bills, possibly ending in a government shutdown on October 1. The weird thing about the GOP strategy is that every shutdown makes it easier for the President to get better deficit numbers for FY2011 and FY2012.
October is when third quarter corporate reports come out and there are forecasts of Christmas shopping. It is traditionally when a weak market crashes. And by October, we will know whether Bank of America is going down the tubes.
November up until Christmas will be dominated by the Joint Committee’s posturing and antics. With a vote intended to come before Christmas. Congress will vote to cut entitlements and whatever else they will do—just in time for Christmas. Are we ready for our Grinch Ole Party publicity campaign?
And then in January, the campaigns begin in earnest.
Some folks have recommended that Obama run against a do-nothing Congress that passes half-assed legislation. “Send me a Congress who will get done what you the American people want done.” would be their framing, not sparing the Democrats.
In the interim, a push to bail out state budgets where massive numbers of public employees are being laid off would be a quick way to get money into the economy. Whatever the jobs program is, it should not be framed as a jobs program or a stimulus but as aid to get specific things done. The season for weatherizing and repairing school buildings is over for this year but massive funds to save school districts money could be programed for some 15,000 school districts in the US. The services could also be extended to private, parochial, and charter schools on a one-time basis to cut energy costs. That would be about 250,000 school buildings. Estimate the employees required to do one school building and you can see the number of workers required to get it done in one summer season. Cutting out the states and working directly with the school district’s building departments could get the coordination and flow of funds fast-tracked. Funds could be disbursed on a per square foot basis.
Another project would be white roofs on all non-visible roofs on federal, state, and local government-owned buildings. That is best done outside of summer weather. Again, work directly with the building departments and accounting departments of the governments owning the buildings.
And neither of those are controversially bold.
“Another project would be white roofs on all non-visible roofs on federal, state, and local government-owned buildings. That is best done outside of summer weather. Again, work directly with the building departments and accounting departments of the governments owning the buildings.”
dude, that ain’t gonna happen. none of the “ideas” listed in comments are gonna happen.
you know it, I know it. You’re telling yourself foma.
I think you’re a tad overoptimistic here.
We’re dealing with an opposition party that thinks energy-efficient light bulbs are a socialist plot to take away our freedoms.
I should have added not controversially bold “outside of the 281 Republicans who sit in Congress and the Villagers, pundits, and bloggers who enable them.” That, by the way, is a very small minority of everyone in the country, but they have become a seemingly insurmountable block.
For the rest of the country, neither of those ideas is bold and looks like necessary maintenance of public facilities.
For state governors, however, bypassing their grubby little hands is communistically radical.
I have no illusions that either one will be done, but putting it on the table will show once again just how loopy the Republicans have gotten. All campaign and no governance.
You know, there’s a lot I could say about all of this, but i’ve ceased caring. I’m resigned to an old age of poverty and humiliation, no opportunity for my kids (should I have more: my son from canada will be just fine).
I’m unemployed and you know what? I’m not even looking for work. I just don’t care anymore. Why should I?
Been there, done that, brendan. Started working on projects to help my community — community watch, stream cleanups, getting volunteers for youth programs, finding open sources software to support community organizations.
It was through a contact that I developed in one of these efforts that I found the job I had before I retired.
The old saw that when you are unemployed your job is to find a job is a paralyzing piece of shit. That tends to focus your efforts on ineffective paper chases and online activities that go into the information sink.
Use your skills and talents to do stuff, even if those skills were not being used at your last job. Don’t hide your situation but don’t act as if finding a job is the only reason you are doing what you are doing — because most likely it won’t be.
Perversely, you’ll be contributing more to the real wealth of the nation that the guys on Wall Street who trade piece of paper (bits in a computer file) every five minutes.
Eventually you will be compensated in kind or in cash or with a job. And you will not be able to force when that occurs. It happens when it happens.
But you will have done something that has an effect (a lot of paid jobs seem not to) and that is a very good feeling to have and one that rebuilds your confidence.
This time around there are a lot of folks in the same position you are who might be able to barter goods and services if they only networked with each other.
that’s exactly what I’m doing so far as unemploymen goes, volunteering at a local production studio (here’s my most recent script: I chose about 1/2 the images on this as well).
when I say “i don’t care anymore”, I mean i don’t give a shit about another jobby-job, i could care less about who wins the election, and I’ve given up completely on america.
This country is in decline, and there’s not fuckall we can do about it. Our politicians and the de-facto one-party system in which the operate rivals that of the USSR in its final days when it comes to worthlessness, incompetence, and venality.
oh sure, the democrats MIGHT let you sleep in a cardboard box when you get old. We’ll see what the “super-committee” has to say about that.
I have one, and only one, concern these days: “what’s in it for me.”