CabinGirl and I (and Finn) knocked on 62 doors in Charlestown Township yesterday in Chester County, Pennsylvania, which is the most conservative of Philadelphia’s suburban counties. We worked off a list prepared by Organizing for America which was carefully calibrated to introduce us to people who support the president but who don’t have a strong voting history. Many of the people on the list were women in their early twenties who still live with their parents. Others were wealthy Asian-American entrepreneurs. But the people we met were all over the map. Our first contact showed up as we were leaving. His wife is dying of cancer and is in home hospice. We had already talked to family members from California who had voted absentee. This man was visibly suffering but he was pleased to talk to us and assured us that he would find time to make it to the polls. We commiserated with him for a little bit, offered our condolences and enjoyed his jokes about how much he dislikes the plutocrat, Mitt Romney. As we walked throughout this neighborhood, we noticed that Romney and the local Republicans had hired someone to hang literature on every single garage door handle. It was a completely indiscriminate carpet-bombing that was both inefficient and wasteful. They didn’t know who their supporters were, but we did. We knew who our strong supporters were and we didn’t bother to talk to them or give them literature. The people who walked that neighborhood today and the people who will walk it tomorrow, will not retrace our steps. They will hit only the houses of the people who were not home. This is how a ground game is properly run.
The Romney campaign has reportedly conceded Nevada, but we have a lot of data out of the Silver State, and we can use that data to draw conclusions about other states. According to Jon Ralston the Democrats have been very effective in using the same strategies we used here in Pennsylvania to outperform the Republicans in Nevada.
About half of the 26,000 new Democratic registrants since June 1 already have voted. The GOP new folks are coming out at a slightly higher rate (54 percent), but the raw numbers difference is more than 14,000 voters because of the Democrats’ registration advantage.
—-You want low-propensity voters? Of those who have never voted before, there has been 40 percent turnout among Democrats, almost identical to the GOP turnout among that cohort. But because of the registration difference, the Democrats have a 24,000-voter edge in that universe.
—-If you reduce this down to the parties and their percentage of the vote among newly registered voters or those who have never voted, the Democrats are winning in newbie ballots cast by more than 25 points. That is a huge problem for the GOP, especially because about a fifth of the early and mail voters in Clark have never voted in any election. The Democrats are capturing the lion’s share of new voters — and it could make a decisive difference in more than one race.
When we walk our neighborhoods, we have a plan. Our plan is to squeeze every last vote out of the voter file, and to do it with the most efficiency and at the least cost. The GOP is supposed to be the party of small, efficient government but their campaigns don’t operate that way. The cost of sending literature to every damn home in Pennsylvania is astronomical and totally reckless. When you talk to people in OFA headquarters, they just shake their heads in disbelief at the profligacy and waste they see in the Romney ground game.
And you better believe that this difference between how the two parties campaign will show up in how they govern.
Who could say no to a young child? I see you have that part of strategizing down 🙂
And yes, this needs to be emphasized more to encourage more walkers:
Obama will not send you into unfriendly territory if that’s what you’re afraid of! I know so many people who don’t want to canvass because they’re afraid of rejection. But by and large, you’ll be sent to areas where the people are receptive to you.
Definitely.
In 62 homes, we came across three unfriendlies. One assured us he would vote but didn’t want to discuss his choice and shooed us away. One was loading a Republican senate sign into his friends’ trunk, but cheerfully told us that his daughters had already voted absentee for Obama. And one was a new homeowner who shouldn’t have been on our list. Our targets had moved.
Every single other person we met was either a strong supporter or was undecided and happy to talk to us.
I’ve been wondering why Romney would be campaigning tomorrow in Dem-leaning areas like Cleveland and Pittsburgh.
Well some conservative guy tweeted this to Dave Weigel (h/t DKOS):
So just in case the OH SoS’s voter suppression tactics don’t work, the Romney camp will help to cause disarray. Wouldn’t surprise me in the least!
Ugh, the Romney camp are disgusting and Plouffe willing we can get rid of his ass tomorrow!
Disarray? Don’t you mean tumult?
Nice!
damn it I need a dictionary sometime..
thanks 🙂
OMG, they will destroy us with their TRAFFIC!
I tremble.
Why is it reckless? Romney and the Super PACs have so much money they can’t even spend it all. It costs them nothing to do this. They wouldn’t do GOTV more smartly if they weren’t doing carpet bombing.
Well, first of all, these lit drops weren’t from Super PACs. They were local, state, and federal expenditures.
Second of all, it isn’t hard to print out a voter list and interpret it.
We talked to at least two dozen people who wouldn’t wipe their ass with the literature the GOP hung on their garage door.
It’s nice to have a money advantage, but it isn’t an advantage if it is totally squandered.
It takes hundreds of pieces of mail to get one vote. It takes a dozen targeted door knocks to get a vote.
I got so much stuff the past few days. It all went straight into the recycling bin.
Ugh, we got a really stupid one from Move On yesterday.
This is such a definitive way to understand the two Parties. It reminds me of your time at Acorn and your take away of the street smart survival of hard working people who never see throw away bucks.
Tomorrow the Romney campaign will likely dole out bonus packages to their top staff. The guys who hung signs on the garage door openers will get stale donuts left behind.
The Obama campaign has already seen results. Their results are the people who connected.
Remember: the Romney campaign was paying much more for TV ad spots than Obama, partly because of bad planning.
But I suspect the real reason is that the people that are “doing stuff” for Romney are raking off a (hefty) percentage, so last minute TV ad scheduling? Blanketing with tons of useless flyers? It’s all gravy!
That’s what you get with an organization of sleazy grifters from top to bottom.
That’s pretty much what I expected – Citizens United would enable the Festival of Demon Sheep.
We have canvassed here in Charlotte 6 times. The folks we met were excited and ready to vote for Obama. We were amazed at OFAs ground game. We went back to the same areas until all voters had been contacted. This is a huge city with all areas covered and many offices.
maybe tomorrow NC will go blue, I hope so.
No matter how the numbers end up, you have won in North Carolina. If it’s not blue this time, it will be soon. Your work has been amazing. Tell your friends, the country has been watching and we’re all very proud of you.
Romney gets beaten up by a far superior business plan, marketing plan, and operational plan. The guy doesn’t understand modern micro-targeting marketing, business information systems, or what social science can tell us about the attitude and behaviour change processes.
If he didn’t own the business, he would be fired…
This is exactly what I’ve been seeing here in Minnesota. The GOP has sent me dozens of mailers, left literature at every door in every neighborhood I’ve personally visited, and even worse, they had their actual candidate for state senate knocking on my door – when I had given a substantial donation to her opponent. She also stopped by the neighbor at the end of my row, who had a sign for her opponent! (granted, it was on the other side of the house, but still…)
They’ve also left phone messages for myself and several of my hard-core democratic always-voting friends.
They have no idea what they’re doing.
Wow, the GOP candidate came to your house? Now that is impressively incompetent.
just state senate. but still, yeah.
bEYOND STUPID.
it’s extra funny because some liberal douche with a bullhorn was bemoaning OFA’s ground game, on the “grounds” that it was based on data and targeted intelligently.
gawd bless liberals and their eternal hatred of Obama. their tears will be second only to teabagger tears tomorrow.
Dude. Liberals are the majority of OFA volunteers. There are exceptions, but deal with it.
My mom lives in Florida and has been a registered Democrat since time immemorial. In fact, if you ask her her political preference she self-identifies as “socialist”.
Yet she received 3(!) separate RNC phone calls over the past weekend urging her to vote for Romney. Granted, they were robocalls (one from Romney, one from Clint Eastwood, can’t remember what she said the 3rd was). So not as wasteful as in-person canvassers or calls. But still, not free for the Repubs and utterly, utterly pointless.
Glad to know our Galtian ubermensch genius bilionaire businesspeople are getting their $ worth. Is this how they run their companies? No wonder the economy is in the shitter.
The repukeliscum still work on the “contact all voters” model. It’s beyond stupid and wasteful. Still glad to see them wasting mail, phones, and other stuff on me.
Over the last 3 days, I have contacted a lot of voters. I have dropped mail at about 1000 in the last 3 days – many of them are repeat calls. I have called 100 tonight – mostly in support of myself, but others as well.
Tomorrow is a big big day. Regardless of where you are, red state or blue, get voters to the polls. A red state will and can have blue districts. Each of those can win or lose by a few votes. Every vote counts.
You are right! OFA knocked on another million doors this weekend in VA. One experienced team knocked on 500 doors. My Chesterfield hub is packed with volunteers, and now they need fewer drivers to the polls and more “runners.” The organizers look like death warmed over, but they are feeling good about VA. And the same guy I always ask about Ohio says, “It’s ours.” He’s glad, he says, people are worried and not complacent. But he’s not worried about Ohio. He’s never shown even the slightest concern about it. God, I hope he’s right!!
What’s the proper way to say “good luck” before an election? “Break a leg” doesn’t quite seem appropriate. How about, “I hope you win?”
“Good luck” works for me. There is a certain amount of luck in this campaigning. You may catch someone in a good frame of mind or bad. You may say something that you think is clever, but that the person you are talking with is not happy with (in one case, I used a friendly name for a small child, which was totally misinterpreted).
Thanks for you good thoughts.
Best wishes for election day, dataguy.
Can Romney paint with all the colors of the wind?
If anyone is watching Obama’s last campaign speech in Iowa right now, he is delivering a truly moving tribute to the organizers from 2007 to now. Believe he’s wiping away a couple tears too.
I had a tear in my eye, too. I was an early volunteer in NH in 2007 and had a lot of friends who were volunteers in Iowa and NV and SC and we became really close and have stayed close. A few of them were there last night and we were reminiscing about all that we have experienced over the last five years.
So after we finished our afternoon phonebank and I had entered all the data(we have a scanner!) I took a break for an hour before the next phone bank and a phone bank in another town was already starting on the not homes from our list.
“The cost of sending literature to every damn home in Pennsylvania is astronomical and totally reckless.”
Heh heh … there’s a lot more where that came from … heh heh heh.
Sitting here watching FLOTUS and POTUS at the last rally of his political career. The final rally is in the place where it all started…Iowa.
I think it can definitely be said that without Iowa there would be no 44th President Barack Hussein Obama.
I know that his Iowa win is what woke up me and my fellow Black voters to the possibility that Barack…our Barack could actually do this thing and almost instantly, we realized the Obama was one of OUR guy and we took him and his family into our homes, into our neighborhood, into our families and into our hearts and we never looked back. Call it what you want, racial pride or racial bias (conservatives), but he was here and Michelle was here and they had a chance and we never looked back.
Tale of 2 speeches tonight. Obama inspirational love letter to supporters…Romney…Obama bad, me good…whatever!
President Obama wiped away a tear as he gave his last campaign speech as a Presidential candidate. Tomorrow he finds out if he will be continuing his political career as President of the United States. He ended his speech by telling the story of his “Fired Up Ready to Go” and asking the supporters if they are “Fired Up and Ready to Go”.
Pretty emotional. FLOTUS hugged POTUS and you could read her lips when she said “I’m proud of you”
The tear falling from Obama’s eye tonight RT @dougmillsnyt: http://yfrog.com/9fyft6j A tear rolls
Looks like Mittens is looking to recoup some of those losses by charging reporters for access to his watch party.
.
Did GOTV phone call in the Ashland Va. office yesterday
they were so organized we finished early
Really incredible
Anybody have any comment on why Mittens is still campaigning today?
I heard the strategy is too cut the margin of popular vote loss in Ohio and PA. Doing that maybe winning the total popular vote. The Rs would then use it to try to turn electoral votes or totally legitimization 2nd turn (as if they haven’t already. )
He’s going to run a big rally, and it will keep his supporters away from the polls.
Now, I’ve heard of dumb shit, but THAT is genuinely stupid.