I never really got comfortable reading MattTX’s charts of the projected North Carolina early vote, but I note that his final conclusion is that he has no idea whether Obama will win the state. We can see that a lot of white Democrats have changed their registration to unaffiliated over the last four years, and we can also see a substantial reduction in turnout among whites who have remained Democrats. Turnout among white Republicans is up 9.3 percent. Combined, this paints a bleak picture for Obama in a state he won in 2008 by a mere 14,000 votes. On the other hand, the white share of the vote is down almost 3% and African-American turnout is up 6.4% among registered Democrats and down 6.3% among registered Republicans. Most of the recent polling out of North Carolina shows the race tied or Romney ahead by a point or two. Michelle Obama is appearing in the state today, which would indicate some belief on the campaign’s part that it is still in play. Most people I talk to seem to feel that OFA-North Carolina is the best turnout organization in the country right now, and organizers on the ground are exuding confidence. And this might be the most heartwarming story I’ve read from the field in this whole election cycle.
I think the state is too close to call, but there are no signs that the campaign has given up there. Forward!
anyone know what the GOTV strategy is for Hispanic voters from OfA? if these numbers hold up, then Florida might be in our column come tomorrow night.
Research Firm Says Historic Showing Among Latino Voters Will Carry Obama To Re-Election http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/research-firm-says-historic-showing-among-latino-voters via @tomkludt
I got my graduate degree at UNC-CH, and lived there from 1975-1983. This was 37 years ago to 29 – a long time – 2 generations in dog years.
At the time I started there, NC was very rural, and pretty southern. By the time I left, the Triangle was REALLY advanced, and there is high-tech, IT, and industry to bring it into the 21st century. Part of it is SAS, a software company that is headquartered near Cary NC. Part is the triangle (UNC-CH, Duke, NC State) and the 95 % of the faculty from the north and other places.
NC is now VERY similar to VA, and both are not too different from OH, especially Columbus south. There is the urban blue region and the rural red.
NC will be very swingy in the next election. It could be reliably blue. Farmers regard illegals as a positive, and the Repuke hatred for illegals offers opportunity. GA is going through a very bad time for the rural farmer.
More an more it is the suburban areas – Raleigh suburbs, Charlotte suburbs especially that do the swinging. The Greensboro suburbs have been reliably Republican ever since Howard Coble first ran for office (1984). There are still a lot of rural and small town Blue Dogs that keep the local Democratic Party organizations on life support. You see them especially along the border with South Carolina from Wilmington to Charlotte (McIntyre, Elmers, and Kissell’s districts). The northeast (Butterfield’s district) has a lot of minority-majority rural counties that will reliably go Democratic and might create enough of a margin in a really tight election.
Democrats in the mountains (Shuler’s, McHenry’s, and Foxx’s districts) are beginning to fight back but I get the sense that this is not the year that will bring victory. The southwestern Piedmont (Myrick’s district) is the Republican religious right heartland of the state; moreso after redistricting.
Yeah, I think NC is looking surprisingly tossup-y. I actually think the Obama campaign has a better chance there than in FL, because they don’t have to compensate for the depressing clusterfuck that Rick Scott synthesized to throw the state to Romney.
Also, what up with PA, BooMan? It looks like Clinton is going to be there all day. My theory is that it’s still a major longshot for Romney, but maybe less of a longshot than OH at this point.
RMoney was 1.5 miles away last night in Bucks PA. What a mess with traffic. A lot of people for them ( lots of DE, and NJ plates though. Most of the traffic got on 95 to somewhere else. ) I don’t think they have any converts, just the R’s coming home.
I think it is the illusion of momentum combined with necessity. They have to win PA or lose. They may steal Ohio ( the vote counting servers are still hosted with a company that is a major R player.) Remember its not the voting machines they hack, its the tabulators. Especially in states without a paper trail for recounts. It only takes a change of a couple of percentage points to steal it. And its likely they have done it before. Ken Blackwell anyone?
There’s a thundering herd of elefino running through this election. What I do know is that there is a smaller chance for election irregularities to change the outcome. What you get as a result, unless there is a big change in GOP behavior here, is what was voted.
You have two sets of coattails contending here. You have the Obama campaign turning out people with a very intensive ground campaign going up against the coattails from Pat McCrory’s gubernatorial campaign (which will drag Romney along).
North Carolina has a sizable Latino community; it is unclear what proportion are citizens, registered voters, or inclined to vote for Obama. That’s the mystery factor. And in a tight election the way the Asian-American vote breaks could be a factor.
I would say that Charlotte-Mecklenburg’s vote is probably what will swing it. In 2008, it went for Obama and Democrats. But Pat McCrory was a relatively popular mayor of Charlotte, which will cut into the margins there.
Nate Silver’s model predicts a 1 in 4 chance of an Obama win. So if there is a surprise, it will be NC–unless it’s Indiana.