Last week, Markos argued that now’s the time to press our advantage and “crush the spirits” of the conservative movement by delivering “a defeat worse than they ever imagined.” I humbly suggest that as part of the program, it’s time to poll Arizona and prove the theory that McCain’s home state only supports him by single digits. It’s time to move Arizona from “likely” to “lean,” give a leg up to Democratic challenger Bob Lord in AZ-03, and saddle the McCain campaign yet another embarrassment to spin in the waning days of the election.
And, who knows, the results of an Arizona poll might just surprise even us…
Back in August, the Mason-Dixon poll made headlines by showing McCain up only six points in Arizona. But post-RNC, three polls gave McCain double digit leads, with an ASU outlier from 9/25-28/09 giving McCain a seven point edge [Pollster].
But the state hasn’t been polled since September 29. And just to refresh, here’s a bit of what’s happened since then:
October 2 – Vice Presidential debate. Biden wins every snap poll.
October 4 – Palin starts Ayers attacks (“palling around with terrorists”)
October 6 – McCain/Palin supporters begin yelling “Kill him” and “Terrorist” at rallies
October 6 – Dow drops 370 points
October 7 – Presidential debate (“That One”). Obama wins every snap poll.
October 9 – Dow drops nearly 700 points
October 10 – Troopergate report finds Palin abused power, violated ethics law.
Etcetera etcetera. Meanwhile, Obama has surged to over 50 percent in most national polls; come close to locking down New Mexico, Colorado and Virginia; and turned Nevada, West Virginia, and North Carolina into swing states.
Finally, here are three indications that McCain could be in particular trouble in Arizona:
- As Kos has noted, AZ-03 has moved within striking range for Democratic challenger Bob Lord.
- As ourhispanicvoices notes, Latinos in neighboring states of Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico are turning towards Obama three to one over McCain.
- As thereisnospoon notes, McCain’s tanking in the Southwest may stem largely from Latino disgust with negative campaigning. And Latinos are a big part of the Arizona electorate. According to the Pew Research Center [pdf], “17% of eligible voters in Arizona are Latinos, the fourth-largest Hispanic eligible voter population share nationally behind New Mexico with 38%, Texas with 25% and California with 23%.”
- And this is all anecdotal, but here’s a Seattle Post-Intelligencer reprint of an Economist article entitled “Why Arizonans Dislike McCain.”
Poll, baby, poll!
