There are certain votes that are easy to attack and difficult to defend. I do not mean, necessarily, that these votes are morally problematic. They are often just the opposite. What I mean is that they take more time and energy to explain than is practical in a 30-second ad or an eight-second sound bite. If you are accused of not supporting the troops because you voted against a war-funding supplemental bill, you don’t want to have to explain that you voted for an alternative amendment to the bill before you voted against the final version. If you voted against the SCHIP expansion of children’s health care, you don’t want to have to explain complex budgetary concerns that provided your rationale. Not all votes are created equal, and the ones that are especially subject to demagoguery are the ones that will provide the rallying cry for your opponents in the next election. So far, the Republicans are attempting to demagogue three votes from this Congress: the stimulus package, the budget, and the cap and trade energy bill.
On all three bills, Speaker Pelosi gave her blessing to vulnerable Democratic house members to vote with the Republicans. The Democrats have plenty of votes to spare, and they figure that they don’t need to offer easy targets to the Republicans.
Here is how it plays out. Speaker Pelosi (or her whips) goes to a vulnerable Democrat (one whose district voted for John McCain, for example) and tells them that she needs their support for a bill that will be controversial in their district. When the member expresses reservations, Pelosi tells them to wait until the vote is almost over to make their decision. If the Democrats get to 218 votes, the bill is going to pass and the member is free to vote against it. But if the bill is falling short of that number, she needs them to bite the bullet and fall in line. Sometimes there are other inducements and promises thrown in for motivation.
There are two ways of looking at this strategy. The first way is to see this as smart, politically savvy management of the Caucus. Pelosi’s job is to pass her agenda, to keep her members happy, to beat the Republicans in the media war, and to protect and expand her majorities. Showing a keen understanding of her members’ districts and vulnerabilities is just part of keeping them happy and protecting her majorities. There is no real upside to padding the size of victory if it means more vulnerable members who it costs more money to defend.
The second way of looking at this is that it undercuts the Democrats’ message, makes their agenda less attractive, makes it more likely that House legislation will be watered down in the Senate, and punishes vulnerable members who actually do support the Speaker’s agenda. It’s harder to defend a piece of contentious legislation if all the Republicans oppose it and are joined by forty Democrats, than if the Democrats are united in supporting it. If the Democrats are lacking unity on legislation, it’s easy for the Republicans to raise questions about its wisdom. When the legislation reaches the Senate where Democratic unity is required, it is harder to maintain that unity on a bill where ‘moderate’ House members are opposed to it. And, a vulnerable Democrat who supports Pelosi’s agenda is more out on a limb when they can’t look around and find allies that voted the same way.
I might add, that trimming votes to protect vulnerable incumbents makes it look like the Democrats aren’t voting their conscience but only to cover their asses. That perception can be corrosive over time.
The truth is that a competent Speaker does need to protect her incumbents from time to time. But there is a cost, and that cost cannot be denied. In some cases, a better way to protect people is to get them all to commit together and then rigorously support each other’s votes. In other words, a good offense is sometimes the best defense. Nowhere is this more true than on issues like climate change or gay rights, where part of the goal isn’t merely to win votes but to change perceptions and win the national argument.
Did you see Jane’s peice yesterday at FDL? Pelosi would rather kiss Gene Taylor’s ass(who won his district with 75% of the vote last year) then protect Tom Perriello(sp?), who only beat Virgil Goode by a few hundred votes. I’m finally glad Progressives in the House are starting to stand up and now bend over for Pelosi all the time in her caving to the Blue Dogs. They need to do more of it. Because lets face it. Republicans are only going to vote for stuff that passes(because as I think Boo said .. a few don’t want to be on the wrong side of history) … but they won’t vote for it otherwise(especially health care).
got link?
Here:
http://campaignsilo.firedoglake.com/2009/06/30/arm-twisting-in-the-house-the-lloyd-doggett-story/
and here:
http://campaignsilo.firedoglake.com/2009/06/29/blue-dog-kabuki-why-exactly-do-they-need-protecting/
It’s a very weak excuse in most cases — basically a way to worm around a problem that you are not competent enough to solve. To take the example, it really ain’t that hard to say “I voted for a good bill that really protects the troops, and against a bad one that doesn’t protect the troops.”
Obviously the Dems don’t give much of a damn if they lose voters like me because they think there’s no place for us to go. Like the crap Wallstreet and Main Street manager class, they only know how to think short term. Over time the lack of any noticeable principle gives rise to the likes of Nader, who go on to point out that the two parties are barely distinguishable. Then the Dem loyalists weep and moan about what a bad guy he is to make such wild claims. And the damage is done, but we can’t see it yet, so party on dudes.
Obama is protecting the congressional Dems with his incredible approval, but even that can’t stem the party’s steady decline in the polls. The strategy might be short-term effective in the absence of real political talent, but the shit will hit the fan when nobody can find any reason to think, I’m proud to be a Democrat and Obama isn’t enough anymore.
John Kerry lacks excellent political skills but he was dogged by his vote against the war supplemental, probably fatally, because he couldn’t explain it as well as Rove could criticize it.
He couldn’t explain coming in out the rain in less than 1000 words. That’s exactly what I mean. The “fatal” part is the neurotic fear of the mystical power of the Roves and the Republicans to work arcane magic with that scary word stuff. It’s never a problem for the GOP no matter that they are promoting notions that are literally insane and/or subversive.
That’s the heart of the problem. Papering it over with desperate and silly maneuvering just prolongs the problem and makes the congressional Dems look even more hapless than they are.
that’s structural.
did you vote for the money for the troops? No, but…
You’ve already wasted time and bored everyone to death before you begin.
You don’t say “no but”. You say yes — I voted for the only bill that supported the troops.
The real problem is that Democrats don’t want to admit that the bill their scum party-mates voted for was garbage. If they did they’d have no problems explaining.
Good thoughts, Booman. I don’t like the idea of a lot of game-playing as a result of political calculations. If I were in the House, I’d just vote my beliefs and let the chips fall where they may….
well, after you realized how time-consuming and annoying it is to make phone calls soliciting campaign funds, you might change your tune. When anyone or anything can reduce the hours you need to spend making solicitations, or wipe out a primary contender, or commit to using DCCC funds to your reelection, you are going to listen.
Nope. I would go into Congress that I was going to do the right thing, and to hell with the consequences. Re-election isn’t supposed to be the goal. If Congresscritters would spend more time interacting with their constituents and less time meeting with lobbyists, they could win repeatedly.
they could spend more time with their constituents if they could spend less time on the phone asking for money. but the only way to spend less time asking for money is to get big bundles of contributions from special interests. It’s a Catch-22 that cannot be solved without publicly funded elections.