Israel has agreed to abide by a proposed UN sponsored cease-fire. This comes only a few hours after Olmert and his cabinet approved an expanded ground war. It is not known whether Lebanon and Hizbollah will agree to it.
This is all fine and nice. But it is a bit like getting a midget to run down the basketball court and slam-dunk in Shaquille O’Neal’s face. The midget might agree to try, but it ain’t gonna happen.
As Ambassador Dennis Ross is explaining to the Faux News morons, the resolution basically says that Hizbollah can no longer be a militia. King George III might as well have told George Washington that his rag tag group of colonists could no longer be a militia. He might as well have asked his viceroys to crack down on our Revolutionary Army and disarm them.
There is some good news in this, however. The UN has agreed to dispatch 12,000 troops (where they will come from us anyone’s guess). And it puts the onus on Lebanon and Hizbollah to agree to a cease-fire, rather than have it all hang on the Israelis. It’s not much. There is a glimmer of hope here. However, it isn’t going to result in victory for Israel, and it is not what this whole venture was launched to accomplish. I have said from the beginning, these UN negotiations are designed to fail. The endgame is regime change in Syria.
Israel is now desperate for a ceasefire. There only other option is a further ground offensive that will result in large military casualties for them. Only a few days ago they replaced their cautious local commander with a more aggresive one. As they agreed a deeper incursion and with their new general they lost 15 troops in one day and a bunch of tanks the next. These casualties are beyond what Israel can sustain for long. The politicians blinked.
Will Hezbollah accept a ceasefire? They will weigh the relatively few concessions won in the UN resolution with the victory parades they can have for having forced Israel out again. Then there is the reality of Hezbollah remaining in South Lebanon because they hail from the people of this region. And thats not to mention the Lebanese army are not exactly enemies of Hezbollah. Alternatively Hezbollah could continue the fight that Israel no longer wants. this would stop UN troops deploying and force Israel into a ground war. However, Hezbollah may lose the extremely powerful position it has garnered unless the Arab world rejects the ceasefire plan too.
Will the ceasefire fail? Almost certainly. It is Boltons job to make all those statements about under the resolution Israel has the right to defend itself against the children of Lebanon as soon a the Israelis massacre a few more innocents while stating Hezbollah have broken the resolution if they so much as fire a rifle. The resolution will set up a blame game. This will also be helped by the UN force if it ever gets off the ground being based only in oner of the 2 fighting countries. It is far more likely Lebanese actors will attack the UN just because of location. Now there is a real question that exposes the UN resolution as flawed. Why no UN peacekeepers in Northern Israel to insure the IDF do not invade Lebanon?
I loved the headlines on the News Hour this evening. France and the US agreed on the wording of a cease-fire. The draft resolution is headed to the Security Council where quick passage is expected this evening. Condi Rice expects both the Israelis and the Lebanese to accept the terms. Funny how everybody except the people actually involved in the fighting seem to have decided how things are going to be.
Instead of regime change elsewhere….why not in Israel? Slaughter continues in Gaza and West Bank/
Hizbollah is sitting in the catbird’s seat. Israel’s only ploy (the one they started with) is bombing enough of Lebanon, including the Christians, to make Hizbollah look like the group that is the cause of it all. Not very likely. As to the troops: Tonga and who else’s army?
My guess: Hezbollah will send one long-range rocket to the northern suburbs of Tel Aviv. The reality check. Just to point out that something better needs to be put on the table.
Israel initiated military activity in Lebanon with the following goals:
These were the goals for which Israel has leveled Lebanon and they have not been met.
Accepting the fantasy their Air Force, like all other Air Forces, purvey to the gullible the IAF entered into a bombing campaign with the ideas (1) they could force a shift in public opinion in Lebanon against Hizbullah and (2) interdict Hizbullah’s logistic chain. As usual, the bombing campaign increased support for Hizbullah within and without Lebanon with no observable affect on Hizbullah’s military capability. interdiction has failed.
Hizbullah surprised the IDF with its pre-sited firing positions, its military capability, and its willingness to stand and fight. So far the Israelis have lost 82 soldiers and 13 tanks. Note the armour losses. This is unprecented and indicates Hizbullah has received top of the line TOW (Tube launched, optically guided, wire guided) anti-tank missiles. Given the armour plate of the Israeli main battle tank – the Merkeva – Hizbullah could be deploying the American BGM-71, the Pakistan Baktar-Shikan, or the Chinese HJ-8.
IF this is true then the IDF is in deep trouble as they have been concentrating on urban low-intensity tactics and they are facing continuous, high-intensity, combat against pre-sited positions with interlocking fields of fire. In low-intensity combat armour is generally ‘safe’ under attack. In high-intensity combat armour is just another target. Further, since they have concentrated on urban warfare their troops have little to no experience with combined arms assault and in particular the tricky operational art of infantry/armour co-operation under fire. As I have previously written, frontal assault against prepared positions is extremely costly and Israeli casualities would be heavy due to the inexperience of the IDF command in such operations and the lack of training and combat experience of the reservists who would be the primary infantry element.
To give an idea of the potential loss: in the first day of the battle of the Somme. Deemed “a learning process” by the great military historian John Keegan he describes the British attack, preceeded by an artillery attack of one million shells, thus
The butcher’s bill for the first day was a minimum of 20,000 dead, 40,000 wounded out of 100,000 attackers – 60% casuality rate. The majority of casualities occured in the first 5 minutes of the attack. One battalion was wiped-out on British territory due to its Colonel, inexperienced, ordering a simultaneous advance from his front and reserve trenchlines.
I am not saying this is what is going to happen! I am saying this is the type of thing that could happen and is more likely to happen with inexperienced officers and men.
The IDF high command knows all of this, of course, and also knows who is going to get the blame for the casualities if their political leadership orders them to clear the Hizbullah positions. As a sidenote: a series of frontal assaults might, or might not, destroy Hizbullah but it also risks destroying the IDF as the premire miltary force in the Middle East.
Please observe the lack of geo-political analysis, e.g., diplomacy and stuff like that there.
This comment is long enough.
Meanwhile Israel requests a speeded up delivery of M-26 artillary rockets
[read cluster bombs]
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/11/world/middleeast/11military.html?hp&ex=1155355200&en=4887d
0ebeb1cdf33&ei=5094&partner=homepage
through Beirut by Hezbollah that will beamed around the world. Pretty humiliating times ahead for Olmert. The other question that arises is now Israeli intelligence has been totally discredlted, and their army shown to be weak with little stomach for a real fight, how will this affect teh way they are considered and dealt with by other regional powers? Their hand has been incredibly weakened in a month beyong what most could foresee. Now nothing short of joint atacks with the US on Syria and/or Iran can give them back the fear they generate.