Following the basic principles of triage, the Republicans’ strategy this fall seems to have been to focus first and primarily on saving the patients with the best chance of survival, and that has meant taking actions that will help preserve their Senate majority without worrying about the consequences for House candidates. The way the Brett Kavanaugh hearings were handled is a perfect example of this, and it would have been even more stark if retiring Sen. Jeff Flake of Arizona hadn’t pressed the pause button and allowed for the testimony of Dr. Christine Blasey Ford. The polarizing effect of the Kavanaugh confirmation changed the shape of the electorate, perhaps only fleetingly, giving partisan Republicans a boost of energy and a badly needed victory at the cost of an even bleaker picture for embattled incumbents running in well-educated and affluent districts around the country.
“Clearly the Kavanaugh confirmation was an inflection point to activate the Republican base, and even pull over some Democratic men,” said Rob Stutzman, a Republican consultant based in California. “But that’s an effect that benefits the Senate and leaves suburban members of Congress stranded. It’s unlikely we won back suburban Orange County voters.”
The Kavanaugh effect was a bit like the high you get off cocaine or methamphetamines–short-lived and accompanied by a bad hangover. It probably had some impact on early voting in some states, but other events have overtaken it and left the Republicans desperate for a new bump. There are plenty of indications in the polls that the late momentum in House races has moved toward the Democrats.
There is still some reason to believe that the congressional races will offer a surprise to progressives and the media. As Nate Silver explained last week, the polling has been better for the Democrats in Obama-Trump districts than in Romney-Clinton districts, which is something I’ve consistently said was possible, starting right after Election Day in 2016. There is a lot of regional variation, but working class whites in the Midwest are coming home to the Democratic Party. This is probably despite the Kavanaugh story rather than because of it. And it is one reason why shoring up red areas didn’t do much for the GOP’s chances of holding onto the House. Depending on how you define “the Midwest,” the Democrats are favored to gain between 12 and 14 seats, and possibly many more than that. They’re also looking strong in the Senate and governor’s races, although the Kavanaugh effect may have hurt Democratic incumbent Sens. Claire McCaskill of Missouri and Joe Donnelly of Indiana.
Overall, where the Democrats have struggled in the post-Kavanaugh environment seems to be in a bunch of Romney-Clinton races like Georgia’s 6th District and some districts in Illinois and California. It could be that the short-term effect of the Kavanaugh hearings was to get a lot of suburban Republicans to act like Republicans, but recent news related to the murder of journalists and racially and religiously motivated attacks has changed their focus back to the problems with our president.
In any case, with a week to go, there seems to be a consensus that the polls have some movement in them and that it’s favorable to the Democrats. Yet, the Democrats are still not favored to take over the Senate, largely because the key races are all being held in states that Trump carried and (other than Florida) have a clear Republican lean. In that political landscape, goosing Republican enthusiasm and turnout pays off even if it hurts in the suburbs.
There is still time for the momentum to shift again, but a lot of votes have already been cast. If the Democrats can figure out a way to win the Senate race in either Tennessee or Texas and avoid losing in Missouri and Indiana, they still might come away on Election Night with control of both chambers. It’s not something I’m willing to predict, but it’s possible. It would be extra sweet because the Senate Republicans sold out the House to protect themselves, and they deserve to suffer the consequences.
Just let Devin Nunes and Dana Rohrabacher be defeated.
Let them be immigrants- to Russia.
Neither outcome appears likely at the moment.
Fivethirtyeight has California 48th with 64-36 odds in favor of the D side.
I don’t put a whole lot of weight into these estimates giving the paucity of polling but at least someone thinks there’s a chance Rohrabacher gets voted out of office.
Not sure why. Their list of latest polls don’t support it.
I never could quite take the “Blue Tsunami” stuff seriously – just seemed like dreaming to me – but it is nice in these last few days to see at least signs of hope for a decent outcome. I will admit that I’m getting really, really tired of the “10 days….9 days…8 days….” mantra on the cable stations.
Off topic but one quirk here – I live in the Upper Peninsula but as a result of an archaic FCC rule we get Green Bay, Wisconsin, as our “local” TV stations, so I have to watch political ads for people who won’t even be on my ballot. Now THAT is inhumane.
Demo taking the Senate, though still more of a long shot versus them taking the House, would be sweet indeed. If for no other reason than to see them stick it to the Turtle Man.
But they can’t be doing this go high when they go low, look forward not back nonsense. They have to come in ready to kick some ass and settle some scores.
Actually Flake’s demand that they listen to Dr. Ford probably hurt Democrats badly in senate races overall, because it heightened partisanship radically. The GOP base saw it as “attacking a good man!” because that’s how Fox News portrayed it and that’s how conservatives played it.
If Flake had just shut up and voted for Kavanaugh then it would have been just a partisan vote. Dems didn’t lay a glove on him for being a reactionary bigot who would overturn Roe and will do it at the first opportunity. With glee. He would have been quickly confirmed without even bothering with hearings. Lots of Americans wouldn’t have paid any attention at all because the media coverage was severely muted (his confirmation was a done deal until Dr. Ford appeared and thew a monkey-wrench into the proceedings).
By drawing out the hearings Dems did mobilize lots of suburban women who might help them in House races, but also allowed Trump to turn this into a referendum on Conservative vs. Liberal. And with severe gerrymandering, Dems have no chance winning that fight at present.
Long term this is another epic disaster for the GOP which has decided to just ram the Titanic into the iceberg over and over again with the idea “we’re not sinking now! In fact we’re winning!” This in a country that is becoming majority minority more every year.
Short term, which is all the GOP thinks these days, it probably helps them in the Senate that they were able to have this fight to wake up their Deplorables.
In short the Kavanaugh nomination probably sank Heidi Heitkamp and allowed Dean Heller to win Nevada, this saving the Senate for the GOP, although it probably won’t sink Joe Manchin, Joe Donnelly, or Claire McCaskillm, which means the net effect in the Senate is probably ZERO change in balance – Dems stuck at 49 Senators.
Ugh…the dreaded “momentum”. Personally I hated that Politico article, though I didn’t mind the conclusion.
In the Senate, Nevada is also looking iffy, though I remember 2010 when we were told that Reid was done for and that we should get ready for Senator Sharron Angle.
I am wondering if people are counting Heithkamp out too soon. Her polls haven’t been good, but there haven’t been a whole lot of them…just 1 so far in October. She got 13 million dollars, which has got to count for something. The last fundraising email I got from her campaign asked me to donate…to Joe Donnelly.
Trump is going to Fort Wayne In on Monday to campaign against Donnelly. Just sayin.
I agree the dems should take the house but I think the senate is gone, maybe forever. Norman Ornstein noted recently that by 2040 70 percent of voters will occupy 15 states. That means that 30 percent, the minority, will control 70 senators. And he says those voters will be older,rural and whiter. From my standpoint it sure looks like the large population centers are in blue states and they get just two senators. The red purple and small states also get two and there are more of them. The prognosis is not good and neither is this year.
So the real problem is what now and for the future? One could make the case that the dems are locked out of the senate and supreme court like forever. What is the future 0f the democratic party? I am just depressed about it at the moment.