The only candidate that scares me is John Thune. But I disagree with Nate, in that I don’t think Palin will win any primaries, let alone the Republican nomination. She doesn’t have the kind of discipline you need to be a winning candidate. Imagine her trying to plant herself in Iowa for six months. It’s laughable on its face. She’ll never be elected to anything again. But she’ll have more money than any of us. So, she’ll be fine.
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BooMan
Martin Longman a contributing editor at the Washington Monthly. He is also the founder of Booman Tribune and Progress Pond. He has a degree in philosophy from Western Michigan University.
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The thought comes to mind that some Democrats may cross over and vote for Palin in the Republican primaries. It is possible that there won’t be anything contested on the Democratic side, which means that there really isn’t much of a downside.
In our state, we don’t register by party – all I would need to do is show up and vote.
Why does Thune scare you? Because he’s a Republican pretty-boy? He’s not even on the next-in-line list yet. And the only one that didn’t have to be on the list was Dubya, and we know why he got a pass(Pappa Bush). How is Thune going to get a pass?
Look at the competition.
But the money boys like Romney. And he’s paid his dues. Besides, as long as Thune doesn’t serve a term as SD Governor first, he doesn’t worry me. Do you think Senators are going to fare better than Governors in getting elected President? I don’t. If you asked about 2016 or 2020, I might be worried about Thune. Personally, I am more worried about Haley Barbour. He’s paid his dues, comparatively speaking, where Thune hasn’t yet.
Evangelicals will never vote for Romney. Without the religious/social conservative vote, he can’t win. Even with all the money he had going for him in 2008 and couldn’t do jack.
Unless something unexpected happens which causes the bottom falls out on Pres. Obama, no one “serious” will run in 2012 against him. It’s gonna be a blood-bath of second stringers if things continue to go they are for the GOP primary.
I don’t know much about Haley Barbour…I’ll have to do some research.
Well, even if he tests the waters and becomes a somewhat-serious candidate, the media will need to take a closer look at him, they might just dig up something…or someone.
be scaring you is Barack Obama. If we’re still bogged down in Afghanistan, Iraq blows up as we stand down (which is looking pretty likely), and all we can get on health care is the Nebraska Compromise, Obama will be a helluva weak incumbent. If the jobs picture is weak too, John Thune will be the least of our worries.
He’s far too tall.
I know, I know, he’s denied it a million times, but I see two scenarios where the paradigm shifts and it at least becomes a remote possibility:
1. The dems do well in the 2010 midterms and either electorally or through rules changes break the back of the filibuster, and then go on to enact a number of progressive reforms. The prospect of Obama’s 2nd term starts to look like New Deal II. The GOP, faced with the prospect of becoming a permanent minority party unless it tacks to the center and a vicious civil war if it does try to moderate, pulls out the big guns to get Petraeus to run, letting him fully set the terms of his campaign, such as having the field fully cleared for him, control over the party platform, etc. Petraeus is their hail mary against a widely popular Obama and they’ll give him the full reigns of the party and its institutons if he’ll be their candidate.
or
2. The US suffers a massive terrorist attack or significant setbacks and defeats in its war campaigns abroad which are attributed to, and widely accepted to be, a result of Obama’s failed leadership. This is probably the more obvious one.
It has been obvious for a long time that Petraeus has presidential ambitions, and what is scary about him is that the only real skill he has is self-promotion, and he is very good at it.
The thing about Palin is that she’s so loved on the fringe right, I don’t know if she has to spend the entire 6 month planting in Iowa to win it – or at least take enough of the vote to change the landscape. As long as she RUNS for President in the primary, she’ll throw a giant amount of uncertainty to the whole process. The question is whether she’ll run – which I think is entirely possible. She might be dumb enough to think she could actually win, or she could do it just for the attention.
I agree with you, she’ll never win elected office again. I figured that the second she walked away from her state. She’s more interested in “star power” than she is “political power”.
She’s one Lee Atwater away from being dangerous.
Only if she were more easily controlled…like W with his vanity and need to play dress up in all the flight suits and stuff. “You’re the decider, George” was all he ever needed to hear.
I think you’re underestimating Bush. He was the worst president ever, but Bush knew his role, and knew how to run a campaign.
But I agree with you on Palin.
I think Jeb Bush is the only candidate democrats should be worried about. The Bush Mafia will create Republican Road Kill of all other Republican Presidential candidates.
However, I would wait and see how Immigration Reform proceeds this year. If the Republicans take a hardline on Immigration Reform and start calling everyone “illegal” and here for “welfare”. It will be the end of any Republican Presidential Candidate in 2012. Democrats will have the same electoral map as 2008 except Arizona will turn blue. And that is my long winded prediction.
How sad– here we are, 3 years away from the next Presidential election, and our guy Obama is doing so poorly that we’re already worried about a bunch of GOP losers.
Hardly that. It’s a 4 year cycle, and the landscape is ever changing. It’s always a good idea to keep one eye on the electoral side of things – lest you be caught off guard by someone.
In addition to Thune, who I agree is someone to watch, I’m also keeping an eye on Jon Huntsman. I figured anyone who actually wants to win the Presidency won’t run against him in 2012 unless there’s a real fallout of his support (which hasn’t happened at all). Otherwise, serious contenders will wait until 2016, when it’s essentially an open seat – Joe Biden will be in his mid-70’s and I don’t think he’ll run.
Now that Obama has named him Ambassador to China (which is a great job for him anyways), I’m even more interested in what happens. He has some serious bi-partisan cred when he gets back if he decides to run, esp. if it’s in 2016 since it won’t be against Pres. Obama. He moved more moderate before he left office in Utah. He’ll only be in his 50’s, so he has relative youth on his side.
Thune and Huntsman…anyone else on the list that we should be keeping an eye on?
Aren’t we getting a little ahead of ourselves here? Well, I’ll play the game.
If Obama is strong in the first part of 2011, then someone like Thune will decide to wait for four years. Think about it. Who’s the Democratic bench to follow Obama? There are a lot of old men in leadership of the Democratic Party; they might be some good progressives among them, but who are the younger men (say under 62) to follow Obama in 2016? Thune will be 55 then.
Sam Brownback will have 2 years as governor (as things look now) and will be 56 in 2012. Haley Barbour might give it a last try. Kay Bailey Hutchison might be tempted if the route to governor goes well; otherwise, look for Rick Perry to test the waters for the primary. Or watch Jodi Rell. Look for the dark horse candidates to be from the ranks of Republican governors who have been reasonably successful.
Right now, Petraeus’s success is tied to Obama’s success; Obama has essentially given him the troops he’s asked for. If Afghanistan, despite the odds turns out well, it will be Obama’s. If it turns out badly, Petraeus will have proven to have poor judgment. Only a public split between the two with Petraeus proving to be right puts Petraeus back in the game.
2012 is a sucessful governor’s game. Palin dodged failure by quitting before the 2010 budget hit the fan in Alaska; not sucessful, but not the failure that Arnold is.
We’re on the same page about 2012. Pres. Obama’s numbers haven’t dipped as much as the media likes to say – and he just keep plodding along, racking up accomplishments. As I say in a comment above:
“Unless something unexpected happens which causes the bottom to fall out on Pres. Obama, no one “serious” will run in 2012 against him. It’s gonna be a blood-bath of second stringers…for the GOP primary.”
In 2016, we’ll see all the GOPers that actually stand a chance jumping in on the race. Jindal, Thune, Huntsman, etc. I think we can agree it’s unlikely Joe Biden will run for President, since he’ll be in his mid-70’s at that point. So it’s basically an open seat – but I think Dems have a deeper bench than you give them credit for.
My dream scenario is this: Brian Schweitzer finishes up in 8th year as Gov in Montana in 2012. I believe that’s the term limit there, so he runs for Congress. Instead of the Senate, he should run for Montana’s single (at-large) Congressional district. His numbers are sky high, with a good chance he could unseat Republican Denny Rehberg. He could be in the House for 4 years, then run for President – being an extremely popular Ex-Governor and spending a couple years in DC learning some of the inside-baseball that’s necessary in today’s political climate.
Despite the “open seat” scenario we might be looking at in 2016…there is some great news. In 2016, whoever the Democratic nominee is, here is a short list of the people that will be out campaigning for them:
President Barack Obama (Nobel Prize Winner)
President Bill Clinton
VP Joe Biden
VP Al Gore (Nobel Prize Winner)
First Lady, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton
First Lady Michelle Obama
Who will the GOP have? Bush Senior and Barbara Bush will be in their 90’s. Dan Quayle is…uh, Dan Quayle. Bush Jr. and Cheney certainly won’t be invited. Maybe Laura Bush, but then they’d get W. with her.
That’s a LOT of star power the Democratic Party can send to different parts of the country to campaign for whoever ends up with the nomination, without much response available from the GOP side. Anything can happen in politics, and I never take things for granted (I’ll still be working hard in 2012). However, Dems have some real opportunities out there for the next decade or so.
Of your list of Republican candidates, Jindal is probably out because of a poor showing in his first national outing. Of those the primary will come down to Thune and Huntsman, which by then should have more degree of seriousness than Thune is currently showing.
Schweitzer certainly will be a credible candidate under the scenario you have. It is possible that by then Eliot Spitzer will have redeemed himself in the eyes of the public. Mark Warner still has ambitions. And Maria Cantwell might have the stature by then to run. But all of those depend on future events and rising into the leadership of the Democratic Party.
Yeah, Jindal took a real hit with his first national showing after the mini-SOTU…but 7 years is a long time in politics. If you think Eliot Spitzer could redeem himself by then, then it’s entirely possible for Jindal to do it as well.
“Petraeus’s success is tied to Obama’s success“
You are overlooking Petraeus’s incredible talent for self-promotion, without which he would never have gotten as far as he has. He somehow managed to transform his spectacular list of failures and out and out screw-ups in Iraq into a sterling reputation, and then as the icing on the cake somehow managed to sell The Surge<sup>TM</sup> as a success despite the fact that it failed to achieve any of its primary goals, and only appeared to bring about a reduction in violence because the real causes of the reduction were factors concurrent with, but unconnected to The Surge<sup>TM</sup>.
And I cannot avoid pointing out here that the recruitment of “the Soony insurgents” to fight the so-called “insurgency” was a day late and a dollar short to say the least. Sunni tribal forces had been battling the “foreign fighters/terrorists/Jihadists/Al Qa’eda/insurgents” since at least 2004, and had repeatedly approached the American occupation forces for cooperation and assistance and been summarily dismissed. So, that idea not only did not originate with Petraeus, he dismissed the possibility numerous times before the genius dreamed it up. And of course, by the time he thought of it the Iraqis involved had given up on the idea of any kind of real cooperation and were in it solely for the money.
.
(Washington Notes) Aug. 31, 2007 – … a new balanced, more pragmatic and judicious voice is needed — someone who understands how to deploy power and understands the evolving contours of non-state, radicalized, Islamic extremist violence.
He may be earning his political chits with Bush and company now.
David Petraeus would be the Republican’s version of a Wesley Clark — a new Eisenhower. . .perhaps (though one senior retired military friend of mine nearly tossed it up when the comparison to Eisenhower whom he admires came up).
Petraeus, Israel and the adversary in Iran
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."Petraeus is the current version of Gen. Douglas McArthur, a self-promoting fuck-up who was the darling of the right. He dare not go against Obama, his commander in chief; he could be cashiered quite quickly. There is not enough time for him to position himself like Wesley Clark or Eisenhower. He has to retire first and then allow for a decent interval away from the military. His earliest roll-out is 2016, if ever.
Petraeus is not MacArthur. I’m not sure why you consider MacArthur a fuck-up. I’m not saying he was any angel either, because he wasn’t. The other thing is, you do realize what he did in Japan after the WWII, right? If that kind of thing happened today, the Right would howl. He governed Japan somewhat liberally all things considered(Yes, despite the fact that he was hardcore GOP).
Is it my imagination or has Huckabee dropped off the radar since he joined up with Fox?
He dropped off of the scene after someone he paroled as governor assassinated cops in Seattle…
Oopsie.