If you’re like me, you still feel badly burned by the results of the 2016 elections, including the outcome of the Congressional contests. I’m gun-shy about getting overly confident based on polls, and I’m definitely concerned about the possibility that the whole Kavanaugh catastrophe has boosted the GOP’s chances, especially in Senate races. Prospects in the House look better, and I suspect the way this election is unfolding that there is going to be a divergence where national polarization leads there to be an inverse relationship between the how the Democrats do in the House and the Senate. Where the Kavanaugh controversy has almost certainly hurt the GOP is in well-educated suburban districts that were already at risk, and where it has possibly helped is in statewide races in places Trump won by a large margin, like Missouri, North Dakota, and West Virginia. As for Sens. Joe Manchin and Heidi Heitkamp, I don’t think they could have avoided damaging their chances no matter how they voted. Faced with the option of angering the majority of their constituents or disillusioning their base of supporters, there is no correct political decision and they could only follow their conscience. For my money, that doesn’t speak well of Manchin.
Still, I’m hopeful that any bump the GOP sees out of Kavanaugh will have a brief half-life.
The GOP still has a path to keep the House, but it would require either a near-sweep of the toss-up races or a significant change in the political environment in the final four weeks of the campaign.
A temporary uptick in Republican enthusiasm over the final week of the Kavanaugh confirmation fight could give the party momentum that provides that change. But, strategists say, it could just as easily fade, and the dynamic could revert to where it was earlier in September: with Democrats poised to take the House and wage an uphill battle for the Senate, too.
In one sense, I think the fight over the Supreme Court aroused a lot of Republicans out of their slumber and also got them to look beyond their disillusionment or lack of satisfaction with President Trump. I doubt all of that will simply vanish between now and the closing of the polls on Election Day. But, in another sense, they got what they wanted and the main battle is over. I don’t think they’ll be all that motivated to go punish people who lost, but everyone who opposed Kavanaugh is now thirsting for revenge. If I had to guess, the fallout has changed the election from one that was largely about persuasion into one that is much more about turnout. I sense this favors the Republicans, especially in midterm elections where Democrats always struggle to turn out their low-propensity and often younger voters.
At the same time, increased polarization favors the Democrats in precisely the districts they were already targeting, making it possible that they’ll run the table in well-educated suburbs in every corner of the country. They may have lost a real chance to take the Senate and they may not get some of the more marginal house seats that were in play, but it does still look likely that they’ll wind up controlling the House when all the results are in.
As for Senate seats, it pains me to say this but the most valuable seats are the ones you’ll never win back once you lose them. Ben Nelson made me crazy when he served in Nebraska but his seat is gone now and unlikely to come back anytime soon. This dynamic makes Manchin’s seat probably the most valuable one in this cycle, along with Heitkamp’s. If the Democrats’ lose the Florida seat, it will be a toss-up six years from now, but an incumbent Republican senator in West Virginia or North Dakota could be safe for decades to come.
Prior to the Kavanaugh vote, Manchin looked safe and Heitkamp looked doomed. He voted for Kavanaugh and she voted against, which seems almost backwards if you believe the common wisdom that a ‘no’ vote would hurt them. Personally, I think the simple fact that they had to go on the record at all hurt them, and if they win it will be because of other factors that allow them to overcome that perilous choice.
If the Democrats have any realistic chance of taking over the Senate, they need both of them to prevail, and that looks less likely now than it did before the Supreme Court battle. But, again, I am hopeful that the Republican base is a bit sated now and won’t be as motivated in a few weeks as they appear to be today.
This Red Tide stuff seems to be tres chic among the courtier press right now. I’m tired of it and tired of the speculation; let’s just get the damn mid-terms over with.
Exactly. For the media it’s a cool story idea. “Just when you thought the Democrats had the edge … ” But I think it’s being way overhyped — I’m inclined to agree with the Booman.
If the Republicans got a bump, I have a feeling it’s short-lived. Their gloating, their brash anti-woman statements, and their own terrible candidates might drag them back down. Polls are fickle things, and I’ve seen the newer ones tipping back toward Democrats.
Whatever the polls show, we just have to ignore them. We cannot afford to be either complacent or overconfident, nor can we be discouraged or resigned to failure. We can do this. Winning the House would be great, winning the Senate would be greater still. I think we just have to get people motivated and make sure everyone gets to the voting booths next month.
I’m sick to death of Trump and his terrible party. We have to shut them down.
North Dakota and West Virginia may not be as vulnerable to rising sea levels, but they’re not at all immune from drought or flooding. So I’d say “decades” are pretty hard to predict at this point.
Cook Political Report keeps changing it’s political updates on the House, and every time they move more House districts, the movement is always more Democratic.
Cook:
Still the conventional wisdom. 538.com insists that their latest data convinces them that the GOP base has been stirred up by the Kavanaugh hearings, but the effect may only be felt in deep red states.
Because the Senate races are in deep red states, it is likely that the hearings may help sink Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota, where 538.com now has her chances less than 20%, but she was always the most endangered Democrat in the Country and it’s unclear Kavanaugh had any effect.
Donnelly and Manchin now look to be relatively safe, even though Democrats are mad at Manchin for voting for Kavanaugh, that probably helps rather than hurts him in WV.
Ben Nelson is a weak candidate, but FL is so deeply divided that it’s expected this will be a very close election either way, with probably little movement. Perhaps he’s helped if more suburban women come out, but, again the effect is likely too small to prove one way or another.
Democrats still are slightly favored to pick off seats in AZ and NV, so Kavanaugh could have a slight impact there, but the polling is so close Heller and Rosen in NV are well within the margin of error.
It might be expected that GOP base will lose some focus now that they’ve won, but that’s not how they roll. They will stay angry because Democrats dared to oppose Kavanaugh, and Trump has again nationalized everything by attacking Ford. This is again a pure base election as it has always been where the deciding factor will be opinion about Trump.
Every time Trump isn’t in the news his approval goes up by about 1%, but he’s still about 52-42 negative and that hasn’t changed much, and that will determine the election. Mid-terms are almost always a referendum on the President and this is no different.
At the outside Democrats might pick up 12 Governorships, but more likely around 6 or 9 which would leave them around 22-24 and in improved condition for re-districting in 2021, but not any decided advantage.
Donnelly and Manchin now look to be relatively safe, even though Democrats are mad at Manchin for voting for Kavanaugh, that probably helps rather than hurts him in WV.
See this:
http://popula.com/2018/10/09/the-red-state-of-joe-manchin/
about Manchin. He helped doom the Democratic Party in WV. No one carries as much blame as him. And then he also convinced Jim Justice to run for Governor, who turned around and went right back to the GOP after he was elected.
These high profile fights and traumas are risky no matter where one stands. If the way in which Kavanaugh was pushed through doesn’t drive turnout, I don’t know what will (short of that which has economic consequences).
I’m a bit skeptical of polls that show stronger Republican enthusiasm, not because I don’t consider them real but because they say nothing about the percentage of the population that answers the question as a Republican. Anyone willing to take on that label in this time has to be a true believer, especially in light of the confirmation. So it’s possible to drive those numbers higher while undermining Republican prospects as fewer and fewer are willing to own the mantle associated with that name.
Plus three weeks is an eternity in politics. I never count my chickens. We all just need to get out and help organize.
Tossup district CA-10 is only about 90 minutes from me in good traffic, and I’m thinking of going there to volunteer, just wish the Dem candidate (Josh Harder) didn’t look quite so bland. Anyone with any knowledge of this contest, or any better recommendations for someone in a safely blue Bay Area district?
I’m knocking on doors every day after work from now until election day. The talking we do here doesn’t amount to much of anything. We need to get out there with those who need to be reminded to vote. That’s the game and it’s where we need to put our energies from now until the results are in.
Today, CNN has the results of polling done within the past few days and it shows women favoring Democrats by a stunning 30 percentage points: 63-33.
https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/09/politics/cnn-poll-midterms/index.html
That doesn’t seem like this has helped Repubs at all.
Got to break it down by race.
My sense of Heitkamp is that she thinks she IS doomed and so was free to vote her conscience.
I have not seen any poll that shows Manchin is in trouble. He’s a real Blue Dog and has been popular with WV voters. OTOH, Heitcamp was already well behind before the vote and her no vote just strengthens her integrity, it seems to me. I also think Phil Breseden has a real shot in TN. In the cases of Nelson and McCaskill, I think it will be all about turnout. The very conservative part of FL that is the panhandle may (or may not) affect turnout given the major hurricane heading straight for it today.