I’ve met a lot of people in my life, and I don’t think I’ve ever met someone who would be happy to wake up tomorrow and learn that they’d been infected with a sexually-transmitted disease. Yet, if you ask conservative Iowa voters, they would have a slight preference for the STD diagnosis over another Bush presidency. Chlamydia is polling just below Ben Carson and a bit ahead of Jeb Bush.
I think I speak figuratively here, but they should go ahead and explicitly ask the question just so we can be sure. Quinnipiac finds the Jebster polling in seventh place in the first-in-the-nation Hawkeye State with the support of about one in twenty likely caucus-goers. That’s the big news this morning, along with the fact that Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker is not only leading the poll but has a little daylight between himself (21%) and his nearest competitors (Rubio and Paul, at 13% each).
If you’re having a bout of empathy for the Bush family, please consider how Rick Santorum (2%), Carly Fiorina (2%), and Bobby Jindal (1%) are feeling today.
I have a suspicion that Team Walker is a bit unnerved by this good news. I remember when John McCain crushed George W. Bush in New Hampshire and looked like the dog who had caught the car. He never intended to actually win, what was he supposed to do now?
Likewise, the folks around Walker know that their candidate is nowhere near ready for primetime, but if he can just not screw things up he has a great chance to win the Iowa Caucuses and roll into New Hampshire with some serious momentum.
Meanwhile, Jeb needs to figure out where he’s going to actually win a caucus or primary because the Republican base in Iowa seems more inclined to treat his presence with penicillin than to actually vote for him.
Bush, the former Florida governor, comes in seventh — with just 5 percent responding that they would vote for him. Only 39 percent said they viewed him favorably, compared with 45 percent who said they did not…
…“More of those surveyed view Bush unfavorably than favorably, compared to Walker’s 5-1 positive ratio. And 45 percent say Bush is not conservative enough. It’s among the GOP conservative base that Bush finds himself trailing Sen. Ted Cruz, former Gov. Mike Huckabee and Sen. Rand Paul,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University poll.
In one sense, this shouldn’t be a problem. Jeb Bush isn’t seeking to out-crazy Ted Cruz, out-Jesus Mike Huckabee, or out-Paul Rand Paul. He must have a plan for getting the most delegates that doesn’t involve doing the impossible. If Iowa isn’t his state, then it’s not his state.
But this hostility to a Bush restoration isn’t confined to Iowa. And Scott Walker could be a bit like Barack Obama in this narrow sense. The biggest knock on him is that he doesn’t have the experience and chops, but most of that goes away if he wins the first contest.
Of course, Iowa also presented a racial test for Obama. In proving he could win the majority of votes in an overwhelmingly white state, he convinced blacks in places like South Carolina that he was a serious contender worthy of their support, and they shifted overnight into his camp. This caused Bill Clinton to lose his mind and dismiss the result in South Carolina by comparing Barack Obama to Jesse Jackson. I don’t see these kind of dynamics repeating themselves in the Republican contest.
Nonetheless, Jeb isn’t a natural fit for the Republican base in the Deep South and they will probably prefer either a native son who isn’t from Florida and is not named Bush or they’ll get excited about Walker and support him.
Jeb will need to stage a major comeback in Iowa or win in New Hampshire. If he doesn’t, it’s hard to figure out when or where he will actually come out on top.
Take a look at the primary schedule and tell me what you think.
If I were an Iowa GOP voter, I’d vote a straight STD ticket.
“Clap for Jeb, everyone!”
Bush being an appropriate name.
That map is a seriously ridiculous POS. C’mon … Shades of Blue??? Why not red, yellow, blue, white and black so that those of us with bad eyes can see something.
New York would appear to be Jeb!’s first shot at a true win. This assumes that the children take NH, the bigots get Iowa, and the Midwest Govs take their home states.
BooMan, this sentence is a thing of beauty:
I thought the RNC doesn’t care what the voters think, they’re unifying around their chosen candidate [Jebya]
They don’t. But during the pre-primary season it’s best to set up horse races because who doesn’t like a race? And elections are ever so much easier to fix than an actual horse race.
well, let’s hope anonymous is on the case because their chosen candidate is a LOSER
Too soon to tell who “their chosen candidate” is. Or did you mean that it doesn’t matter who they choose, they are all losers?
Not sure if he’s as good as his father Jackson Stephens, was at getting a good return on his campaign donations, but might be worth watching where Warren is putting his money. Noted that he didn’t throw away much money (for him) in the 2008 election.
Stephens’ was a heavy hitter with Rove’s American Crossroads and have no idea if Stephens is satisfied with their performance.
But he’s probably mighty pleased with the half million he gave to the John Bolton SuperPac.
i.e. the ppl who convinced him to run vs. Barbara’s initial statement. and how about his only facial expression, schoolmarm disapproval as if someone just threw up on the dinner table. that certainly will play well
you’re talking about the billionaires’ choice – nice to see them fighting among themselves. I’m talking about Republican party, for whom I assume Jebya is their candidate. – trying to back a candidate who dropped out of college, all those Yale alumns, I don’t think so.
Consensus among billionaires usually takes time. Some election cycles it happens sooner rather than later (’68 and ’00). Sometimes later (’80 and ’08). And sometimes they duke it out in a brawl.
The major criteria for them in elections that they are destined to lose is a nominee that doesn’t embarrass them enough to destroy brand GOP in the next election cycles and preferably also boosts the party’s standing within certain demo groups. Ford, BushI, Dole, and Romney met the first criteria. Goldwater was more effective with the second in the near term. McCain better than Goldwater at the first criteria and Palin good but not quite as effective as Goldwater at the second.
Walker has yet to pass the audition. Jeb has that Bush last name. The others don’t get what is expected of a GOP POTUS. It’s also possible that we have yet to see all of those under their consideration.
Hmmmm…
How can they “fix” this!!!???
Oh. I know!!!
1-A massive pro-Jeb media blitz. If of course that sort of pre-digital trick still works sufficiently well to stampede the sheeple. I’m beginning to doubt that it will, myself. The more digital things become the less well they work to create the necessary electoral hypnotrances.
2-Choose another candidate and make damned sure that it either has no chance to win against the likely Hillaryrsaurus…a trusted centrist no matter what she roars…or at the very least can be absolutely trusted not to rock the boat in case it does win. That is, trusted as fully as was Clown Prince George W. Then run it w/a vice-preznit candidate who is as trustworthy (on PermaGov terms, of course) as was Darth Cheney.
Or, of course…
3-Give the fuck up and move to Switzerland (or wherever else fleeing War and Peace criminals go to retire on their winnings) and let the plebes go down with the (
rapidly sinking, totally stinking) ship of state.Any other choices?
Short of an out-and-out coup? (Always a possibility. Look at world history for all you need to know about that.)
I think not.
The American people have become so disgusted with the political act going on in the Washingtoon District of Criminality from both sides of the Scamstrist aisle that I seriously wonder in they will even be able to muster a sufficient number of voters come Erection Day to actually convince the population that it was a valid erection and not some chemically aided hard-on that has no meaning in the real world past advertising purposes.
We shall see, soon enough.
Won’t we.
AG
We just had local elections, Soviet Style. None of the races had opponents, Mayor, Council, Library board, Board of Education, Township assessor, NONE. There were no ballot initiatives. Still people (not me) voted. Why? Habit.
the title of this post is hilarious.
OT:it’s been a scam and a hustle.
so, now that the scam is going to be cut off….they’re gonna stop phone calls?
G-T-F-O-H
……………………
Why American Jails May Drastically Curtail Inmate Phone Calls
May 01 2015 10:58 AM EDT
For decades, every time an inmate picked up a phone to dial a friend or family member, that correctional facility received a percentage of the cost of the call, typically around 50 percent. With millions of people locked up nationwide, the prison phone industry has flourished, growing to a $1.2 billion year business.
But the jail phone industry is at a crossroads — and upcoming regulations that threaten to limit commissions might prompt sheriffs around the country to severely curtail prison phones altogether. “It’s very possible that sheriffs could elect to eliminate the calls,” Jonathan Thompson, the executive director of the National Sheriffs’ Association, said in an interview this week. “They don’t have to provide a call service.”
Regulators and prison advocates have long-claimed commissions have provided perverse incentives for jails and prisons. Commissions, they say, motivate jails to choose phone providers (like Securus and Global Tel*Link) that charge exorbitant rates — while family members of inmates are left to foot the bills.
In 2013, the Federal Communications Commission began its first sweep of prison phone reform by capping phone rates of interstate phone calls. But a second round of regulations its on its way. Later this summer, the FCC is expected to expand its initial regulation that will attempt to make phone calls more affordable for family members. They are considering a variety of changes, including capping the rates of in-state calls, limiting ancillary “set-up” fees, and — perhaps most interestingly — eliminating the commission structure altogether.
http://www.ibtimes.com/why-american-jails-may-drastically-curtail-inmate-phone-calls-1904855
about time, but … wow. maybe the prisons could take up payday lending for the shortfall
April 2007
September 2007
April-May 2011
Romney bounced around between 13-24%. (The runner-up in the prior primary who hasn’t since disgraced him/herself and a loser VP candidate have an advantage early on.) Santorum never got above 6% and mostly languished in the 2-4% range until January 2008. Only Gingrich and Paul managed to move into double digits in the early going.
At this point, best to follow the money and not the polls. (Recall that in Oct-Nov 2011 Cain was leading the pack.)
As much as I enjoy the GOP clown car tour and Republicans that cheer on the various clowns, with one exception, they fall in line with whoever is deemed most electable and on a left to right spectrum, there’s not all that much real estate between the record and campaign rhetoric of that candidate and most of the records and positions of the candidate to his right. At this point it’s less the Bush family policies and more their perception that another Bush isn’t electable that is keeping his numbers low.
OTOH, Democrats have convinced themselves that another Clinton is invincible in the general election and the public policy records of the Clintons that are far to the right of the Democratic base are irrelevant. Once again the Clinton are donning their leftish costume for a primary campaign and liberals are playing Charlie Brown.
Amazing to watch people who should know better fall in behind Clinton.
Guess they got bored with being the “reality based” voters. Or they’ve been captured in a 1992 time warp.
It makes me wonder if people actually investigate the candidates. Sometimes I think not.
Sometimes? My reality based moment came during the 2004 NH primary. iirc — election day but it could have been a day or two before. A Kerry supporter/voter, approximately aged 30-40, gave one reason for choosing Kerry. “I don’t like the war in Iraq.”
The week before there were some live video feeds from a couple of the Iowa caucuses and there were attendees that not only couldn’t articulate issues but weren’t exactly clear on who was running.
What’s the deal with NH primary voters? In 68, 2/3 of those voting for Gene McCarthy did so because they thought he would prosecute the VN war more vigorously.
Sometimes I’m inclined to favor a voter political literacy test …
I think Jeb will win New Hampshire.
Most of this is based on very vague perceptions. I tend to think fav/unfav numbers are better indicator than horse race numbers.
But really for the most part polls this far out are junk. Edwards got over 30 in Iowa in ’04, was never over 5 for all of 2003. And you can tell that story over and over again.
From Jeb’s perspective the key is for the Iowa winner to have little appeal in New Hampshire.
Edwards in ’04 was like Santorum in ’12 in the Iowa caucuses. Both became the default candidate when other candidates ran into difficulties — of their own making and/or subjected various attacks either fair or unfair.
How the unpopular pro-Iraq war vote in the ’04 Iowa Democratic caucuses garnered 80% of the vote is one mystery that will never be solved. And didn’t do that much worse four years later.
is that difficult. Only 14% in the Iowa Caucus thought Iraq was the biggest issue. Both the economy (29%) and Health Care were cited as the biggest issue. Dean won among those who though Iraq was the biggest issue, but it wasn’t the main issue in the electorate.
Both the economy (29%) and Health Care were cited as the biggest issue.
Remind me again what Kerry and Edwards were saying about the “biggest issues” and compare that with what Dean was saying.
As I mentioned in another comment, NH anti-Iraq War opponents were voting for Kerry. In the aggregate, voters are simply not informed well enough to make rational decisions. So, they take a short cut and vote their emotions filtered through whatever partisan lens they wear.
Gov Snyder has chosen NOT to go for a spin in the clownmobile.
Santorum has a reservation for May 27th but may not hop aboard when it arrives.
The Germans don’t even have a word for Schadenfreude.
Do check out carlyfiorina dot org. (scroll down to the end)
Effective!
Agree far too early to take polling seriously. Wake me up for that around Halloween.
Meantime it all seems to be playing out in the Jebster’s favor, mostly because the religious right vote will be split among several unworthies, diluting its effect. I see only Chet Walker as a serious obstacle, with a possible long shot for Marco Rubio.
I do look forward to the Repub debates, plenty of potential entertainment value , extremism, craziness , with a 20% chance of light to moderate fisticuffs.