The results from the NEWSWEEK Poll have improved my mood.
Anger isn’t the only factor that’s been overhyped in the run-up to Election Day. The president, for example, appears to be a neutral force rather than a negative one. His approval rating stands at 48 percent, roughly where it has remained since January of this year, and far better than where George W. Bush stood before the 2006 midterms (33 percent) or where Bill Clinton stood in 1994 (36 percent). Meanwhile, the percentage of voters who say they will be voting “for Obama” in November’s congressional elections (32 percent) is statistically identical to the percentage who say they will be voting “against” him (30 percent). Voters dissatisfied with the country’s current course are more likely to place “a lot” of blame on Bush (39 percent) than on his successor (32 percent).
Another factor that has garnered a lot of potentially unwarranted attention is “the issues.” Simply put, in the NEWSWEEK Poll, voters said they trust Democrats more than Republicans to handle pretty much every problem currently facing the country: Afghanistan (by 6 points), health care (by 12), immigration (by 2, though that figure is within the margin of error), Social Security (by 14), unemployment (by 12), financial reform (by 14), energy (by 19), and education (by 19). Voters even prefer Democrats to Republicans on federal spending (by 4 points), taxes (by 5), and the economy (by 10)—the GOP’s core concerns. The only area where Republicans outpoll Democrats is the issue of terrorism, where they lead by a 6-point margin.
I don’t know what to make of the polls. I just find it hard to believe that people really want more Republicans in office. I mean, on what basis would someone make that decision?
I just find it hard to believe that people really want more Republicans in office. I mean, on what basis would someone make that decision?
Because the Democrats are seen fiddling while Rome burns. I mean, just look at the issue of the tax-cuts for everyone but those making over $250,000. Do you know what we really need to do? Look at the 2012 Senate map. Are there any states that have Republican Senators in blue states(like Olympia Snowe). In Maine, we need to have a strong recruit on deck. Why? Because you better believe the Teahadists are going to primary Snowe. Are there other states? Is John Ensign up? We need to find a good candidate in Nevada to challenge him. Any other states? And we need to primary Ben Nelson out of a seat(yeah .. I know why we can’t .. but that doesn’t cut it anymore). We need to find someone to take out HolyJoe for good(is that mutt gonna try the Democratic primary again? We can kick Ben Nelson to the curb and make the caucus stronger if we are willing to take a few chances and work hard.
Yes. Call the GOP’s bluff and let them all expire, then try to pass a middle class tax cut in 2011.
That doesn’t help us now, but that’s the 2nd best option and should be pursued.
The people who are “madder than hell” and going rightward are madder than hell about everything. Everything that smacks of the establishment.
That includes polls.
Bet on it.
I do not care which poll it is.
They are underepresented.
More underepresented than they have ever been in the past.
Bet on it.
AG
That’s because “madder than hell” righties go vote.
And “madder than hell” lefties stay home.
Not just this election but enough to make a difference at some very critical times.
OH yes!!!
Precisely.
AG
When you’re fed what the corporate media puts on, especially corporate media radio heard while driving or all day at some workplaces, it is surprising that it is this close.
Once again. It’s no who has an opinion or who says they are going to vote. It’s who actually votes.
That raises an interesting thought. Is all this MSM talk about “Democrats are bound to lose both Houses, the only question is by how much” consciously calculated to discourage Democrats from voting?
I think that’s a large part of it. Someone learned a lesson from the NY mayoral election. There was no campaign vs. Bloomberg and ppl stayed home. He [probably] could have been defeated.
Years ago Garry Wills wrote an essay in which he stated that (and I paraphrase) “election are not about the future; they’re about the past”, and more specifically the recent (6-12 months) past.
If the economy is bad, then the incumbents lose. I overstate the case, but not by much. I agree with Tarheel Dem that turnout is key to minimizing Dem losses this fall. Even if we minimize losses, we’re still in for a rough couple of years in Washington. The far-right craziness is too powerful to stamp out in just a couple of years. It’ll take a sustained push.
I don’t think it is all that powerful. It’s just that they have a monopoly on populist anger at the moment. If the Dems ever wake up and co-opt them with real commitment to deep change, the teabaggers will turn out to be a flash in the pan. As has been the case all along, it’s the Dems who have the cards, and so far they’ve done a piss-poor job of playing them. Whether they’re capable of waking up depends more on blind hope than recent history.
DaveW, thanks for your response. I think when/if the unemployment rate drops 2-3% (hopefully more!), then Obama and the Dems will look like a geniuses.
What will be long lasting, I think, about the tea partiers is their nativist and anti-urban anger. I say that because it’s a recurrent theme in American history. Just since the New Deal, we’ve had the Liberty League, the Birchers, the Citizen Councils, the Moral Majority and Christian Coalition, not to mention the free-floating craziness around each of those organizations and movements.
They’re not going away, but neither are we—and we’re going to outnumber them.
They don’t want more Republicans in office — at least not on the issues. But people no longer believe in the issues, or in America. It’s all about anger that’s appropriate but unfocused. Dems are in power now, things are bad, throw the bums out. It’s about Opraish “self-expression” blabla — the point is to show my anger, not to vote on issues or history or reason.
Dems are seen as dithering, and rightly so. There is no other choice but the evil party and the soggy party because out electoral system sucks and its beneficiaries are never going to let us change it. Teabaggers apparently dream of blowing shit up. Liberals sulk and quit talking to the lover they caught making out with Olympia Snowe.
I still thing Obama and the Dems have a shot at turning this around by getting their side out to vote. All the polling says so, and the horserace polls are based on subjective notions of what the sulk will really mean for turnout on election day. My hope is that we lose the turncoat Dems but cling to a majority comprised mostly of actual liberal Democrats. I think we can get more done that way than we did with the “filibuster proof” mythology.
You’re right as rain. The polls show people do want change. Of course! Their life sucks, it’s natural to want change. But they, at least here in Illinois, are sick of an inept corrupt Democratic Party. That’s why independents and write-ins are riding high in the polls. For the first time, I think Scott Lee Cohen may be more than a protest candidate. He may very well be our Jesse Ventura. The Minnesota DFL got lazy and corrupt and the people knew the Republicans were just shills for business, so they went to the outsider.
In the midst of this, Obama comes to Chicago and scolds,”There better not be an enthusiasm gap!”. Or what? Jesus Christ, I wish he would quit channeling Rahm Emanuel and try talking like FDR or JFK. Even after all the betrayal and insults, like Rod Stewart, I look for a reason to believe.
In case Rod Stewart is too far in the past for you:
“If I listened long enough to you
I’d find a way to believe that it’s all true
Knowing that you lied straight-faced while I cried
Still I look to find a reason to believe”
Don’t make a movement out of Ventura. As Minnesotan at the time I can say his success was much more about personalities than parties. Norm Coleman was and is a giant slithering sack of puss and Humphrey was the most boring politician in Minnesota’s recent history.
Well for me, when Obama said “If you sit this one out you were just not serious,” I took action. I had moved from Texas to Colorado and so I got myself registered to vote before the 29 day deadline and will vote because there is just too much crazy out there. I’ll bet I’m not counted in the polls.
Good for you! I don’t think it will matter much in Colorado, but I admire your determination.
?? That’s an odd comment to make for any election as every vote counts. (Except in Ohio, Florida, other areas where they’re thrown out or the Supreme Court rules otherwise). Seriously, Bennet is within 3 of Buck in the latest poll.
http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/contests/2010-co-sen/Bennet-Buck
I have relatives in Colorado, if they are representative of Coloradans, Democrats don’t have a prayer.
I think the tide is turning quickly and the polls are lagging behind. I bet this next week will see the polls tightening even more. The President is a great salesman and he’s been working his ass off in the last few weeks. People underestimate him, the media creates their narrative and they tend to stick to it even when reality proves to be something else. This next month should be dramatic, considering the nuts the Republicans have nominated and the crazy stuff they have been doing for the last two years, there are lots of scandals, stupid votes and hypocrisy that will go nicely into some 30 second commercials.
Thanks for finding this poll. Perhaps the best number from it is the 50-42 Democratic lead in the Congressional elections among definite voters. I discuss other numbers from that and another recent good poll at my new blog post here.