I’m going to try and write more of my own analysis in these campaign news compilation diaries. Campaign news (2005, 2006, and 2008), election laws, voting issues, etc. are covered. Items via a variety of sources (i.e. The Note, National Journal, etc.), diaries at DKos, or found by me through Google News. Unless otherwise noted, opinions in links aren’t mine (nor do I necessarily endorse them). I try to separate my personal comments from the news, but I didn’t always make it as clear as I could. I’m still trying to work that out.
Sections:
- Democratic Party Branding, Electoral Issues, Party News, Shifts in Voting Pref, etc.
- 2005 races
- State/Local/Regional News, Analysis, and Organizing
- 2006 House of Rep. Races
- 2006 Senate Races
- 2006 Gov. & Lt. Gov. Races
- 2008 Presidential Race
- Bush fills Election Assistance Commission with an incompetent Republican from CO
- Reality TV Gets Political Spin In ‘Red/Blue’ Series Proposal
- How to Better Communicate With Congress
- ACTION ALERT for Election Reform: Please make a phone call for paper trail, by MurshedZ
- VIDEO: GA voters used as Diebold guinea pigs
- Fundraising for first half of 2005 for national parties RNC raised $59.4 million in first half of 2005, and have $34 million in CoH. The DNC raised $28 million, and have just $9 million CoH.
- Dean well-received in MT, Idaho, UT, etc.
- If ‘framing’ gives Dems message discipline, so be it
- NH Gov. Lynch says NH will likely keep first primary in the nation status
- “None of the major racial or ethnic groups in the United States show solid support for Bush.”
- ACT scales back operations to determine what role it will play in 2006
- Someone explain Dems and `race’ to me, by felagund Interesting discussion.
OH-2 Less than a month to go!
- Showdown on Main Street, by ttagaris
- Stakeholder updates this race on 7/22/05 with three articles including one about the Republican candidate having to kick in more of her own money.
- Hackett takes fundraising lead, by ttagaris
- OH-2 action update: DNC/DCCC is on board!, by histopresto
- Schmidt Gobbles Up DeLay Cash, by DavidNYC
- Another Tom DeLay in Congress? By Rep. Louise Slaughter
- Hackett steps up with ads, prominent campaigners First time in a long time that a Dem has run TV ads in OH-2.
- Grassroots Produced Commercial Running, by ttagaris
- First Paul Hackett commercial
- Paul Hackett for Congress (OH-02)
- OH-2 blog has full-coverage
- Grow Ohio From the Ground Up
- Ohio Democratic Party blog
- Ohio Progressive Alliance
November
VA
- VA 2005 update, by smartguy11 Interesting replies.
- Barack Obama walks the walk for Tim Kaine, by kaineforgovernor
- MyDD: Kilgore ducking questions about abortion
- Racial Code Language Rears its Ugly Head in Virginia, by kaineforgovernor
- Who Won the Kaine-Kilgore Debate in WEST Virginia?, by kaineforgovernor
- MyDD: VA Governors Race: Debate
- Tim Kaine for VA Governor 05
- Raise Kaine for VA Gov in 2005
- Citizen Kaine Blog
NYC Mayor
- NYC Mayoral Update, by LarryinNYC
- WakeupCall: “NARAL Pro-Choice New York endorsed NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s (R) re-election bid yesterday (New York Post).”
- WakeupCall: “A Quinnipiac poll shows that NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg (R) is above 50% when matched against any Dem contender, including Fernando Ferrer (52%-36%), Virginia Fields (55%-29%), Gifford Miller (55%-30%) and Rep. Anthony Weiner (54%-28%) among NYC regis. voters (release).”
- NYC Boot Bloomberg
NJ
- Corzine event with Max Cleland 7/28, by JerseyBornFilly
- WakeupCall: “A Fairleigh Dickinson poll shows Sen. Jon Corzine (D) leading ’02 SEN nominee Doug Forrester (R) 47%-34% in the ’05 GOV matchup among NJ regis. voters (AP).” (Forrester’s name ID was higher, but the gap didn’t close.)
- WakeupCall: “A Strategic Vision (R) poll shows Sen. Jon Corzine (D) defeating ’02 SEN nominee Doug Forrester (R) 48%-40% among likely voters in the ’05 NJ GOV matchup (release).”
- Corzine for Governor
Other
- CA Special Election: Ahnold’s Redistricting Initiative Thrown Out, by ortcutt
- Detroit: Incumbent Kilpatrick losing ground to Hendrix
- The Bluest State Gets Bluer, by Frederick Clarkson Two MA Republicans switch to the Democratic Party.
- Chris Bowers For Committeeperson, Ward 27, Division 23
- VA’s Style Weekly’s Power List
- We’re in Oklahoma (Where John Kerry failed to win one county!), by storiesinamerica
- Michlib Exclusive: Michigan Campaign Finance Network Exec. Dir. Rich Robinson (part 1 of 3), by fergusonforcongress
- Daschle-Thune Fight Goes On It’s great to see former Daschle staffers dogging Thune.
- Current CO Gov. Bill Owens (R) says he won’t run for President, but might run for Wayne Allard’s (R) Senate seat in 2008, if Allard doesn’t run
- Daschle says he has no plans for a 2010 rematch against Thune.
- Michigan Politics: The Week in Review, by Dump Terry McAuliffe Posted on Saturdays every week. Very informative.
- Colorado Political RoundUps, by Ralph Posted everyday, Mondays to Fridays. Very informative.
- GOP: Caught on Tape
- Tom DeLay’s House of Scandal
- Jack Abramoff and Friends
- Currently, 232 Republicans, 202 Democrats, 1 Independnet, and 1 vacant seat (a lean-GOP district in Ohio. Special election in July 2005.)
General, Regional
- Contributions to DeLay’s defense fund have declined. Two more Republican Congressmen donated recently, though: Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R-TX) and Rep. Paul E. Gillmor (R-OH)
- U.S. House Republicans, Beset by Scandal, Want Higher Donations
- NPR poll finds voters deeply disillusioned Re: generic Congressional ballot.
- NJDem’s comments on CT-5, FL-22, WA-8, IN-8, MN-6, CO-4
- House GOP fundraising takes a hit
- In PA, GOoPers get lots of strong challengers
- Frontline catches up to ROMP. Frontline is the DCCC program for endangered Dems, and ROMP is the NRCC program for endangered GOoPers.
AZ-05 Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R)
* Larry King to run against JD Hayworth in AZ-5
CA-50 Rep. Duke Cunningham (R)
- San Diego Republicans are falling all over themselves to get in this race. The GOP primary ballot will reach double digits.
- Cunningham won’t seek re-election May he have a merry time in jail. [/snark]
- Cunningham faces primary challenge from businessman George Schwartzman
- Target the Corrupt Republican Campaign: Duke Cunningham, by mole333
- Francine Busby (D) is running in this race.
CT-02 Rep. Rob Simmons (R)
CT-04 Rep. Chris Shays (R)
- Rep. Chris Shays (R) will face Westport First Selectwoman Dianne Farrell (D) in 06
- Hey what does Chris Shays think about Karl Rove? Is he for a Congressional inquiry or not? Demand an answer: Shays House website
- CT4 Shays Watch
CT-05 Rep. Nancy Johnson (R)
- CT-5 Keeping watch on Rep. Nancy Johnson (R-CT5) and her silence on DeLay.
- CT-5 Nancy Johnson Watch
IA-01 Open seat being vacated by Rep. Jim Nussle (R) who is running for Gov.
* IA-01 Open Seat Update, by demiowa
IL-06 Open seat currently held by Henry Hyde.
* Christine Cegelis (IL06)
IL-08 Rep. Melissa Bean (D)
* Rep. Melissa Bean for Congress
MN-01 Rep. Guknecht (R)
* Tim Walz for MN-1
MN-02 Rep. John Kline (R)
* Coleen Rowley (D) for MN-2
NC-11 Rep. Charles Taylor (R)
- VIDEO: Heath Schuler is in! Yes, the former football player.
- Get to know the ethical problems of Charles Taylor
- Heath Shuler is running for Congress in NC-11, by RBH
NJ-07 Rep. Mike Ferguson (R)
* NJ-7 Mike Ferguson
NY-29 Republican-held district
OH-15 Rep. Deborah Pryce (R)
- OH15 – Mark Losey Discusses Religion And Politics, by Mark Losey for Congress
- Mark Losey for Congress OH15
PA-06 Rep. Jim Gerlach (R)
- Gerlach holds fundraiser hosted by Rove He got an earful from protestors.
- PA-06: Karl Rove to headline fundraiser for Jim Gerlach, by schuylkill
- Lois Murphy for PA-06
PA-07 Rep. Curt Weldon (R)
* Paul Scoles for Congress (PA-7)
PA-16
* Byron Miller 2006 Congress PA-16
PA-18 Rep. Tim Murphy (R)
* Hafer to challenge Murphy Makes this a good pickup opportunity.
SC-03
* Lee Ballenger (D) website
TX-10
TX-22 Rep. Tom DeLay (R)
- Nick Lampson for TX-22 official campaign site
- Drop the Hammer on DeLay
- Daily DeLay
- LCV’s Tom’s Tainted Team
VA-11 Rep. Tom Davis (R)
* Andrew Hurst for Congress
WI-05 Rep. Sensenbrenner (R)
WV-02 Rep. Shelly Moore Capito (R)
* Mike Callaghan for WV-2
- MyDD Senate Recruitment update
- Rasmussen polls: Cardin leads Steele, Steele leads Mfume, and Warner leads Allen. Some of the “leads” can be described as leads, while other leads are really statistical ties.
- NPR poll finds voters deeply disillusioned Re: generic Congressional ballot.
Arizona Sen. Jon Kyl (R)
* AZ Dem Party Chief Jim Pederson resigns, by Mister T in AZ Resignation in anticipation of a Senate run.
Florida Sen. Bill Nelson (D)
- WakeupCall: “A Strategic Vision (R) poll shows Sen. Bill Nelson (D) leading all possible GOP contenders in the ’06 SEN race among regis. FL voters. Ret. Gen. Tommy Franks (R) trails 45%-43%. Rep. Katherine Harris (R) trails 48%-40% (release).”
- Katharine Harris struggles to raise money.
- NRSC and Rove have asked Harris to drop out, because she sucks that bad.
Maryland Open seat currently held by Sen. Sarbanes (D)
* GOP has high hopes for Steele.
Michigan Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D)
* Keith Butler on Public TV, by fergusonforcongress
Minnesota Retiring Sen. Mark Dayton (D)
Montana Sen. Conrad Burns (R)
New York Sen. Hillary Clinton (D)
* Siena Poll: Clinton has commanding lead over Pirro (R)
North Dakota Sen. Kent Conrad (D)
* Sen. Kent Conrad for US Senate
Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum (R)
- Rasmussen Poll has Casey leading Santorum by 11 points, by jj32. Casey is at 52%.
- Santorum: Sexual Abuse was Consensual, by Desroko
- Santorum hypocrisy prompts a nun to write a fabulous letter
- PA Sen. SantorumWatch
- PA Sen. $antorum Watch
- Spreading Santorum
- Bob Casey, Jr. for US Senate (PA)
- Dr. Chuck Pennacchio for US Senate PA
Rhode Island Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R)
- Chafee could lose primary fight to right-winger and essentially cede the seat to the Democrats according to a GOP insider.
- Matt Brown for US Senate
- Sheldon Whitehouse for US Senate
Tennessee Open seat currently held by Sen. Cat Killer (R).
* Harold Ford, Jr. for Senate
Utah Sen. Orrin Hatch (R)
- Orrin Hatch to get primary challenger in UT state rep Steve Urquhart
- MyDD: Extremely Dark Horse in Pete Ashdown (D)
Washington Sen. Maria Cantwell (D)
* McGavick (R) prepares for run. He has resigned as Safeco CEO.
- Collegial governors depart: Their three-day meeting in Des Moines is most notable for the absence of partisan hostility.
- NGA Coverage: Yepsen: Unlike Washington, governors trying to get things done “And it’s perhaps another reason why the nation’s voters historically favor governors over members of Congress for the presidency.”
- We need more Democratic Governors–likely to happen, by Boppy Governors make good candidates for Senate and for the White House. They also can take high profile positions in the cabinet of a president.
Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano (D)
* AZ Governor’s Race, by pine Lovely diary.
Arkansas Term-limited Gov. Mike Huckabee (R)
* Lt. Gov. Rockefeller leaves 06 race because of an advanced form of leukemia.
California Arnold (R)
- Arnold is really unpopular. 34% approval rating. Ouch.
- Why the non-CA press dropped the ball on Arnold Schwarzenegger coverage They didn’t understand that Arnold is bad at governing.
- CA: Arnold Schwarzenegger Watch
- CA: Stop Arnold
- St. Treasurer Phil Angelides for Gov.
Connecticut Gov. Jodi Rell (R)
- Dan Malloy, Stamford Mayor running for CT Governor in ’06
- John DeStefano, Mayor of New Haven, running for CT Governor in ’06
- Susan Bysiewicz, CT Sec of State, running for CT Governor in ’06
Georgia Gov. Sonny Perdue (R)
- Some Democrats are urging former Senator Max Cleland to enter the LG race against Ralph Reed.
- Cathy Cox for Governor
Maryland Gov. Bob Ehrlich (R)
- WakeupCall: “Ex-Clinton operative Lanny Davis “has formally endorsed” Baltimore Mayor Martin O’Malley (D) for MD GOV while “admonishing” Montgomery Co. exec. Doug Duncan (D) “for going negative” (Maryland Gazette).”
- Baltimore Mayor Martin O’Malley for Governor
Nevada Term-limited Gov. Kenny Guinn (R)
* State Senate Minority Leader Dina Titus (D) announces bid for the governor’s office
New York Gov. George Pataki (R)
* Pataki approvals up, but still lose the 06 race to Spitzer 49% to 37%
Ohio Gov. Bob Taft (R)
- DNC, DCCC, and DSCC fundraising commentary from TAPPED Must read.
- 2008 Presidential Rankings – Week 8 – 7/18 to 7/24, by Tim Saler
- Schweitzer dismisses 2008 speculation
- DLC meeting in Ohio; Clinton, Bayh and Vilsack will be there
- Potential GOP candidates must visit SC. Seen in SC recently or will be seen in SC: Allen, Brownback, Romney, Frist.
- Current CO Gov. Bill Owens (R) says he won’t run for President
- NGA Coverage: Yepsen: Unlike Washington, governors trying to get things done “And it’s perhaps another reason why the nation’s voters historically favor governors over members of Congress for the presidency.”
- The National Governors’ Meeting: Planting Presidential Seeds, by jj32
- Relevant NGA coverage with some interesting quotes from possible 08 candidates
- Some governors get early jump on 2008 race in Iowa
Republicans George Pataki of New York, Mitt Romney of Massachusetts and Mike Huckabee of Arkansas were in Iowa for the meeting, along with Democrats Tom Vilsack of Iowa, the conference’s host, Bill Richardson of New Mexico, Ed Rendell of Pennsylvania and Mark Warner of Virginia, chairman of the governors group.
All seven have at least hinted at an interest in the White House or shown other signs of presidential ambition, like early visits to key states or the creation of national political committees to raise money.
Bayh
- Bayh Steps Up Staffing Efforts in Iowa
- He attended a NH Democratic Party event last weekend. He comes across like a nice guy, but he’s not particularly charismatic or exciting. He’s got a nice smile and seems modest. At this point, he’s probably better at retail politics than made-for-TV politics. You can judge for yourself and reply with your impression: At CSpan It’s the 7/17/05 clip.
Biden
* Biden learned lessons in ’87 race. Really interesting article for those who hate him, love him, or are somewhere in between. Keep an open mind when you read it. In my opinion, it seems as though Biden’s appeal is wide-ranging for those who don’t follow politics closely enough but do catch him every once in awhile on TV. Biden comes across a lot better on TV than Kerry or Gore (if you’re not sick of him just being on TV all the time). Some in the article disagree with me on Biden’s TV style, but he does have an assertive style of speaking even when he really is parsing words. Whether that’s suitable for a presidential run is another issue. In any case, the advantage with known national quantites like Biden and Clinton is that they’ve got lots of experience answering questions in interviews and such. Oh, and I’ve watched Biden on C-Span’s Road to the White House 2008 series. Biden is a really effective schmoozer.
“The good news,” he said, “is I don’t have to tell [voters] who I am. They know who I am. Of course, that’s also the bad news,” he said with a laugh.
University of Delaware professor and presidential scholar Joseph Pika said Biden’s campaign style is suited for the retail politics of the early presidential primaries. Whether it’s suited for a full-blown presidential campaign is an open question.
[…]
David Wilhelm, who ran Biden’s Iowa campaign and went on to chair the Democratic National Committee, is advising the senator as he ponders 2008. He said he has been kept busy responding to calls and e-mails from old campaign colleagues, wondering: Are we putting the band back together?
“People forget that when he left the race, he was essentially tied for first place,” Wilhelm said. “People inside the Beltway probably don’t have any sense of how well he connects with middle-class voters on issues. He connects very naturally, very well.”
[…]
Political observers say many of Biden’s strengths and weaknesses have not changed in 18 years. Pika noted that Biden is still a senator from a small state, with a long Senate voting record that his political opponents could use for political leverage.
And Pika noted that Biden’s speaking style, which plays well to the crowds, might backfire on television — as Howard Dean learned after the “scream” video on the night of the 2004 Iowa caucus.
Clark
* Clark visits IN; says he hasn’t ruled anything out.
Clinton
- Can Hillary Be Elected Commander in Chief?
- National Journal’s Chuck Todd says it sure as hell looks like Clinton is running. He says she’s sending a message via her torrid fundraising pace.
- Clinton sounds campaign themes. The other Democrat who has received a lot of attention for sounding campaign themes is John Edwards. There’s been less coverage for the other candidates and their possible campaign themes.
- Hillary goes on a fundraising blitz. Hotline notes that if she keeps up her current pace, she’ll enter the presidential campaign in early 2007 with $50 million.
Edwards
* He took the poverty issue to OK and Kansas City this past week.
Feingold
- Feingold picks up travel. He’s visited PA, AL, TN, and FL thus far. But is that for an 08 run or just a part of a 50-state strategy? Or both?
- The Feingold FAQ, by King One Eye
Gore
* Gore: New TV channel won’t be partisan He describes himself as a “recovering politician.” I guess this is another indication that he won’t be running in 2008. His former staffers and aides are being hired by other potential 08ers, and some pundits say he won’t run.
Huckabee
- WakeupCall: “Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AR) has formed the Healthy America PAC “so he can help” ’06 GOP GOV candidates across the U.S. (Arkansas Democrat-Gazette).”
- WaPo’s David Broder asks if Huckabee is the next man from Hope
- The Economist doesn’t give Huckabee a glowing review. I still say that a lack of experience in foreign policy can be bolstered by having a trusted team around the candidate. Americans know that the president can’t do it all by him/herself.
Kerry
- WakeupCall: “Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) will be in NH on 7/29 “to attend a reunion with a small group of supporters” at the home of ex-NH Dem Chair Joe Keefe; Kerry will also attend state Sen. Lou D’Allesandro’s (D) birthday party (Manchester Union Leader).”
- Kerry raising millions for Democrats across the country
- McCain in an appearance on The Tonight Show with Jay Leno says he believes Kerry is running again in 08.
Tancredo
- Wingnut Tancredo Calls for Bombing of Mecca, by Savage
- Tancredo rethinks his statement. He doesn’t want to get tarred with a Batshit-Crazy-Goldwater label should her run for president. Oh, wait, nevermind…
- Tancredo Defends Bomb Mecca Comments on CNN, by goldilocks
Warner
* Warner lays groundwork quietly in Iowa. Warner was in Iowa primarily for the National Governor’s Association, as NGA Chairman, but like other governors who attended the NGA convention, Warner was making political contacts in Iowa just in case he chooses to run for the White House in 2008. This is a pretty interesting article for casual 2008 observers and those watching really closely.
—-
Links of Interest:
- Penndit Link Listing: Electoral Politics, State/Regional sites/blogs, Official & Unofficial Democratic Party blogs (Donation links here)
- Penndit Link Listing: Issues, Activism, Political Info, and General Political Blogs & Websites
- Our Senate
- Swing State Project
- Our Congress
- Political Calendar
- Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball
- The Cook Political Report
- Mystery Pollster
- Political State Report
- Stateline.org: Politics & Policy News, State by State
- Info on the Possible Democratic candidates for President in 2008
- Governing.com: Resource of States and Localities
- The Politicker from NY Observer
- Campaign 2006 via The Hill
- The National Journal’s The Hotline
Pease post in the replies of official Democratic candidate websites (esp. those for candidates who will be in tough races come 2005 or 2006) that you know of. Thanks!
Consider Making a Donation to Democratic Candidates
- Buy a Democracy Bond
- Donate to the DNC
- Donate to the Democratic Governors Association
- Donate to the DSCC
- Donate to DCCC.
- Be a Monthly Donor to DCCC
- Donate to College Democrats
Donate strategically or based on who you agree with more. Early money is always helpful. Not only does it allow the campaign to get advertising out there earlier, but it also helps the campaign plan expenditures. Many campaigns end up with money leftover, because so much is donated in the final weeks of the campaign. They didn’t know they were going to get so much money, and didn’t plan accordingly. Keep in mind that TV ads are locked in about a week before the day of the election, so ad production ceases around then. Purchases for ad time tends to happen months or weeks earlier. Campaigns need flexibility as well. The best ways for getting the message out to voters are different in different states. In addition, early money (esp. in House races) helps attract money from DCCC, which has limited resources. Early money can also send a message to a Republican incumbent. He/she may not be able to campaign elsewhere if he/she has to deal with a challenge (however minor) at home.
Electoral Politics and Official & Unofficial Democratic Party Campaign Websites and Blogs Look at the categories in the beginning, and go to the section with campaign sites. Sites are listed by state. They are mixed in with blogs focused on the politics in a state or region.