With all the hullabaloo over the pending immigration legislation in the House and Senate, one would think that something — anything — was likely to pass Congress this year. The truth, though, is we the American people (and that applies to you regardless of political affiliation) are being played. The Republican Congress is setting us all up so they can make hay out of this wedge issue in the Fall. How do I know this? Let’s just say a big bad vulture little birdy let something slip the other day that reveals the Republican strategy for the Fall election campaign:
The good news about today’s amnesty bill that emerged from the Senate Judiciary Committee: Arlen Specter’s bill has no shot of passing the House, according to Rep. Tom Tancredo (R.-Colo.), who has about as good a pulse on the immigration debate as anyone.
For more on what Doc Ock Representative Tancredo has to say, and what it means, follow me below the fold . . .
Here’s Tancredo’s take on today’s events:
“The immigration rallies over this weekend and today show how disordered our immigration system has become. For years, the government has turned a blind eye to illegal aliens who break into this country. It isn’t any wonder that illegal aliens now act as if they are entitled to the rights and privileges of citizenship.
“The McCain-Kennedy-Specter bill that came out of the Judiciary Committee today provides nearly universal amnesty for the more than 12 million illegal aliens in the U.S. The bill also adds hundreds of thousands of foreign workers to a background check system that is already on the brink of collapse. The Judiciary Committee even adopted Durbin’s amendment, which reduces penalties so that visa overstays will continue to undermine our immigration system.
“If the Senate follows the Judiciary Committee’s lead, the prospects of getting a reform bill to the President’s desk this year are slim, to say the least. No plan with amnesty and a massive increase in foreign workers will pass the House. Amnesty and foreign workers are fundamentally incompatible with the House’s approach and, according to every recent poll, they are not what Americans want. Americans want enforcement first, and disagreement over foreign workers should not prevent us from securing our borders.”
Tancredo’s remarks make it clear to me that the Republicans in Congress don’t intend to address immigration reform before the election in November. It’s too good an issue for them to actually do something about. Instead, those who want radical changes to our immigration policies will claim that any failure to pass “real reform” is the fault of Democrats in the Senate.
Especially in the Western states, but also in Florida and anyplace else where immigrant communities are increasing (e.g., think Michigan and New Jersey with their large Middle Eastern immigrant populations) I expect Republicans to run hard on this issue, trying to tie it in to voters’ fears of economic competition from immigrants as well as fears of terrorist attacks because “the borders aren’t safe.”
Any GOP candidate who has a seat in a district where immigrants make up a sizeable voting bloc can choose to use immigration as a wedge issue, or alternatively (should they wish to appear more moderate and reasoned) claim that they support the Specter-McCain approach to reform. Whatever polls best in each district will likely determine the position each GOPer candidate chooses to adopt for his or her campaign. In either case, Democrats will be painted as clueless about the concerns of “Real Americans” and, also, as soft on Homeland Defense. In effect, the plan is to make fear of “the brown-skinned people” (as the General refers to them) this years “gay marriage is destroying traditional values” rallying cry.
Yes, it’s a very cynical, Machievellian approach to winning elections, but then that’s what Karl Rove does best, isn’t it? They can’t run on the Iraq War, they can’t run on the economy and they sure can’t run on being more ethical in light of all the Republican corruption scandals.
Furthermore, campaigning against abortion and against gays isn’t likely to add any new votes at this point. Indeed, in the abortion realm they’ve already achieved most of what Bush promised: two new justices who will vote to overturn Roe the first chance they get. The “Gay people are scary” meme is also running out of steam, except in those districts which are already hard core religious conservative strongholds.
Which basically leaves them with the two I’s: Immigration and Iran. Expect to hear a lot about both in the coming months from Republicans running for Congress. It may be all they have, but you can bet with all the useful idiots their friends in the media, these two issues will dominate the airwaves and the newspaper headlines starting in September (if not sooner).