On September 8, I asked, “Could Mark Robinson Sink Trump’s Chances in North Carolina?”. It looks like the GOP’s problems with their Tarheel State gubernatorial candidate have only grown since then. Thursday is a big day. As The Carolina Journal reports, Robinson is now “under pressure from staff and members of the Trump campaign to withdraw from the governor’s race, and Thursday is the last day that he can do that.
Thursday evening is the state deadline to withdraw from the race. The deadline to remove Robinson’s name from the ballot already has passed. There are just four weeks to go until early voting, and absentee ballots are due to go in the mail Friday…
…Should Robinson decide to withdraw from the race, something that Carolina Journal’s sources say he is opposed to at the moment, the North Carolina Republican Party Executive Committee would need to choose a replacement candidate for November.
According to elections expert Andy Jackson of the John Locke Foundation’s Civitas Center for Public Integrity, the deadline to change the name on the ballot has passed under state law. Once the North Carolina State Board of Elections mails the absentee, overseas, and military ballots on Friday, changing the names could run afoul of the 14th Amendment. Instead, any votes Robinson receives on Nov. 5 would go to the replacement candidate chosen by the NCGOP.
So far, the immediate cause of this increased pressure is somewhat unclear. The rumor is that Robinson made some very disturbing comments on an adult website 15 years ago. He has apparently been told that he cannot appear at Trump events, and he just claimed a positive test for COVID to explain why he isn’t making a planned appearance with J.D. Vance.
As I discussed in my earlier piece, Robinson’s extreme beliefs and statements were already a potentially fatal drag on the Trump campaign’s efforts to win North Carolina. September polling of the race has consistently shown Democrat Josh Stein beating Robinson, often by double digits.
And Robinson’s name will appear on the ballot irrespective of his decision on withdrawal. If he formally drops out today, votes for Robinson can be counted for a substitute candidate chosen by NCGOP, which is the best result the party can hope for.
The comments in question, which CNN is preparing to report, aren’t sexual in nature.
“I spoke to Mark this morning and he was prepared to go on CNN and defend himself against the allegations,” Jason Williams, a partner in Endgame Consulting, the agency handling Robinson’s campaign, said in a text response to a question.
Williams described the CNN story as a “hit piece.” The reported story makes explosive allegations regarding statements the national network says Robinson made on an online message board in 2009, Williams says. Robinson did not hold elected office until 2021, after his successful campaign for lieutenant governor in 2020.
“The main ones I remember were that they were alleging he made some extremely racist comments about Martin Luther King, referred to himself as a Black Nazi and used antisemitic language referring to Jews,” Williams stated in the text message.
Robinson denies making those statements. “He 100% denied it when I spoke to him,” says Williams.
Having to deny you called yourself a black Nazi on an adult website isn’t a good look.
The impact on the campaign should be obvious. As Jonathan Martin of Politico writes today, “If Vice President Kamala Harris can’t carry Pennsylvania, her only hope is on a Southern strategy. Harris must win either Georgia or North Carolina. She has no other path to the White House.” In Georgia, it seems unlikely that Harris will easily be declared the victor even if she wins. This is especially true if the victor of the state will be determinative of the winner of the general election. One possibility is that Trump takes Georgia outright and is certified as the winner. But, if he loses, the state’s electoral votes will most likely be awarded either by the U.S. Supreme Court or the U.S. House of Representatives, both of which will be controlled by supporters of Trump. In the case of the U.S. House, this will be true even if the Democrats retake control, as is expected. That’s because decisions on the Electoral College are decided by state delegations rather than individual members, and even if in the minority, the GOP is certain to have a majority in more state delegations than the Democrats. This doesn’t necessarily mean that Trump will falsely be awarded Georgia in these scenarios, especially if his loss is clear, but it should be a messy and protracted process at a minimum, and a potential cause of an outright coup.
For these reasons, the outcome in North Carolina could be extremely important.
Polling out of Pennsylvania this week has looked somewhat positive for Harris, with surveys showing her either tied or narrowly leading. The best results, for Quinnipiac, have her opening up a five-to-six point lead, but polls by Emerson College, Marist College, and the Washington Post have the race even.
It’s easy to see why Robinson is giving the Republicans heartburn, and it will be interesting to see if Robinson decides to drop out or stay in.