Polling out of Montana is sparse and based on small sample sizes, and some is partisan-sponsored and therefore suspect, but it appears that Sen. Jon Tester is in a fight for his political life against sketchy businessman Tim Sheehy. In one sense, this should surprise no one. Tester is a Democrat and Montana has a Republican governor and the GOP enjoys a supermajority in both houses of the state legislature. Both of the state’s seats in the U.S. House of Representatives are currently held by Republicans, and the other U.S. Senate seat is held by Republican Steve Daines. In 2020, Donald Trump carried the state against Joe Biden in Montana by a 57-41 percent margin, and in August 2024 polls, Trump led Kamala Harris in Montana by margins ranging from 14 to 18 points.
Perhaps not all is lost however. One of the most recent polls, by the Scott Rasmussen-led Napolitan Institute, had Tester up by five points. This is a more credible poll than those done by Rasmussen Reports, with which Rasmussen no longer has any affiliation.
To understand why I called Sheehy a “sketchy” businessman, I recommend reading this article by Marc Cohodes in the Daily Montanan. Here’s a little taste:
Have you ever met someone who calls themselves a “successful businessman,” but lost his company $77 million, is being sued by former employees for allegedly stiffing them out of their pay, fraudulently certified his company as a socially disadvantaged business to try to win government contracts, prompted his biggest investor to cash out of the company and abandon their stake in it, and has had multiple board members resign from his company on his watch – all while paying himself fat multimillion-dollar bonuses?
Maybe you haven’t met him in person, but you’ve certainly heard of him. His name is Tim Sheehy, and he’s running for the United States Senate.
I live in Gallatin County and I’m best known for my work as a financial expert. For decades, I’ve made a career of going after the “bad guys” in finance – I bet against those that I suspect of fraud. That’s how I’ve earned my living, and that’s why I knew there was something fishy about Tim Sheehy and his company.
I was right.
If you prefer more mainstream sources for Sheehy’s financial shenanigans, you can look to the Washington Post, NBC News, or The Daily Beast. There’s plenty of other Montana sources, too, including the Bozeman Daily Chronicle and The Montana Independent. The guy is not a successful businessman. He’s a fraud and a crook.
He’s also shockingly hostile to Native Americans, which is shitty all by itself, but not politically insignificant in a small-population state with about 75,000 Native Americans of voting age. One of his favorite pastimes is to make jokes about drunk members of the Crow tribe throwing cans of Coors Light. He doesn’t restrict himself to making this demeaning joke to his personal friends either. He does it at political fundraisers and campaign events.
This is from a November 6, 2023 fundraiser in Shelby, Montana:
“My ranching partner and really good friend, Turk Stovall, he’s a Crow Indian and we ranch together on the Crow Reservation. So I’m pretty involved down there, going to the Crow Reservation and their annual Crow parade this year.I rope and brand with them every year. So, it’s a great way to bond with all the Indians being out there while they’re drunk at 8 a.m., and you’re roping together. Every one that you miss, you get a Coors Light on the side of your head.”
This is from a November 10, 2023 campaign event in Hamilton, Montana:
“I strapped on a Sheehy sign to a horse and rode through the Crow Parade and if you know a tough crowd, that’s (it). They let you know if they like you or not. There’s Coors Light cans flying by your head as you’re riding by. You know they respect that. You go where the action is and they say, ‘You know, the guy’s not that bad. He rode the horse through the parade. That’s cool.’”
It’s a real sign of immaturity in my opinion that Sheehy’s view of Native Americans hasn’t evolved from what we’d expect to hear from a mid-20th Century white Montanan. Pandering to stereotypes and making light of substance abuse problems endemic in the Native community is not only punching down, but it evades responsibility and compassion.
As for Tester, I’ve had a soft spot for him ever since the Progressive Netroots banded together to raise $43,000 through ActBlue for his primary campaign in 2006. We believed in him in part because he was unapologetically opposed to George and Dick’s excellent adventure in Iraq, and he hasn’t often disappointed as a senator in the intervening 18 years. He’s a good dude, and I’d like to see him reelected for that reason alone. But, of course, control of the Senate could hinge on the outcome of the race, and his opponent is absolutely dreadful.
Do what you can to lend a hand.