2005, 2006, 2008 Campaign News, Notes & Analysis for 5/28 to 6/3

• WA Gov: Judge to rule Monday.
• IL Gov. Blagojevich (D) gets legislation to his desk. Package of election reform sparks Republican whines. Only Republicans would be against distributing voting information to college students.
• Red State Democratic Party officials praise Dean for the priority placed on grassroots and party building
• The PTA and other parent organizations are hoping to turn parents into lobbyists.
• Democrats’ Goal Shouldn’t Be “To Fill Hotel Rooms in Des Moines”
• (WakeupCall) MD Dem party leaders are “pushing” to move the ’06 primary from September to June so that their GOV and SEN nominees “have extra weeks to prepare” for GOP opponents (Baltimore Sun).
• Feds screwing up HAVA
• (WakeupCall) DNC online supporters have extended investment in state Dem Parties to 5 more states, WY, NV, NE, MS and KS, bringing “total investments to date” to almost $1M (release).
• 50 State Strategy
• DNC money. I had read the BusinessWeek article earlier in the week, and I knew they were off big time.  The problem with political insider reporting at a lot of magazines is that they draw a lot of conclusions and use breathless storytelling to tell us… that they couldn’t do proper analysis if their lives depended on it.
• Larry Sabato says don’t expect much change in 2006
• Dana Milbank column on Democratic Unity at a D.C. conference
• GOP and reporter attack Dean, by daveweigel
• Partisan Voter Registration Trends
• Changes to CT elections

VA It Stops in Virginia Tom Daschle sends out a fundraising appeal for Tim Kaine… (WakeupCall) Ex-Gov. Linwood Holton (VA) is featured in Tim Kaine’s (D) latest radio ads in another signal that Kaine “is competing for votes in rural Virginia” (Richmond Times-Dispatch)…. VA: Jerry Kilgore’s Mother Asked to Resign, by kaineforgovernor

NYC Mayor NYC Mayoral Candidates Learning Spanish

San Diego Mayor 15 Seek to Replace SD Mayor

NJ (WakeupCall) A Quinnipiac poll shows in a 7-way GOP primary race for NJ gov, ’02 SEN nominee Doug Forrester is leading the pack with 40% among likely GOP primary voters and ’01 nominee Bret Schundler is in 2nd place with 29%. In a 2-way race, Forrester leads Schundler 48%-40% (release). GOP primary spending. (Newsie: Forrester’s lead exists because Forrester is outspending everyone else.  I’ve only seen commercials from Forrester.  Some of them are positive ads, while others are contrast ads that combine attacks against Schundler and some pro-Forrester points. Schundler seems to have been limited to posting signs in the middle of major roadways all over NJ.)

Detroit MayorLousy poll numbers for Kilpatrick. More extensive numbers (including matchups) in the article.  

House of Representatives

• Donate to DCCC.
• Tom DeLay’s House of Scandal
• Jack Abramoff and Friends
• Drop the Hammer on DeLay
• Daily DeLay
• GOP House pulling Democratic House moderates
• MoveOn’s anti-DeLay effort gives the RNCC the willies
• House 2006 update, by Nathaniel Ament Stone

CA48 Rep. Chris Cox appears headed to the SEC, so there’ll be a special election here. Republicans outnumber Democrats 2 to 1, so the question is whether the eventual representative be a wingnut or a super-wingnut.

CT-2 Hastert Raises Money for Shays

GA12 Link for the following quote: “Former Georgia Rep. Max Burns (R) announced this week that he will probably try to recapture his old seat next year, setting up a rematch with the man who beat him — freshman Rep. John Barrow (D). Burns will likely benefit from new congressional-district boundaries, redrawn by Republicans to make re-election far more difficult for incumbent Dems like Barrow.”…

IL6 Republicans currently in the race to replace Henry Hyde.

IN8 (WakeupCall) Jon Jennings (D) cited family reasons in his decision not to run again for IN 08 (14WFIE.com). Vanderburgh County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth (D) announced that he will take on Rep. John Hostettler (R).

IN9 Hotline has good stuff, and since I’m tired today, I’ll just quote this section:

Louisville Courier-Journal’s Hawpe writes: Rep. Mike Sodrel (R), the “conservative businessman-turned-politician who would like to see a little free-market efficiency in government,” has “gone native” already just a few months in. He took a trip over Memorial weekend to Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Pakistan; Dems may ask why Sodrel and other GOPers say we can’t afford extending health insurance to Nat’l Guard members and reservists.
     A $41.7M river trail bill that Sodrel had derided as a “feel-good project” during the campaign has now received the Congressman’s “blessing.” Hawpe: the project “is a great idea. I do, however, think Sodrel and his anti-tax political party should raise the money to pay for it, and for other good ideas, instead of running up a debt my grandchildren will pay.”
     These and other issues will no doubt be raised by ex-Rep. Baron Hill (D), who will probably challenge Sodrel to a rematch “in what insiders believe will be one of the country’s most competitive congressional races” (6/1).

MD08 (Hotline) Org. for Econ. Cooperation and Development Amb./ex-Rep. Connie Morella (R) is unlikely to try and win back the seat. With Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D) “mulling” a Senate run, GOP leaders “have been shopping around for a candidate” if there is an open seat.

MN1 MN-1: Veteran and Kerry Volunteer Tim Walz to Challenge Gutknecht, by displacedyankeedemocrat

MN2 A whistle-blower’s wish: Coleen Rowley plans a run in MN-2, by MN Eric One of MN Eric’s replies talks about Rowley’s chances.

NV2 (WakeupCall) Club for Growth endorsed NV state Rep. Sharron Angle (R) in her bid for NV 02 (release).

OH2 OH-02 “not a lock,” says right-wing blog, by lorax

OH6 Charlie Wilson Announces Congressional Run (OH-6), by Buckeye Battlecry This is Rep. Strickland’s seat. Strickland is running for the Dem. nod for the gov. 2006 race.

PA08 Republican abandons the GOP… (Hotline) Coast Guard retiree Paul Lang (D) has entered the race to unseat Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick (R). Lang left the Coast Guard “after suffering severe back injuries in the line of duty.” Lang says, “I didn’t like the direction our country is going in. It was going very far right, and Mike Fitzpatrick is only enhancing that movement.” Atty/Iraq War veteran Patrick Murphy (D) is already in the primary race.  (Newsie: With so many unknowns, a tough primary fight will raise name ID.)
TX22 DeLay Supporters to Train for Ballot Drive

WA08 (Hotline) VP Dick Cheney to fundraise 6/6 in Seattle for Rep. Dave Reichert (R-WA 08).

Senate

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• Senate 06 (OH, RI): GOP Challengers for “RINO” 7, by nhc1978
• Democrats unlikely to take back the Senate
• Reid tells Rolling Stone that “[w]e are going to be competitive in races in Pennsylvania, Montana, Ohio, Rhode Island and Missouri.”

FL (WakeupCall) Rep. Katherine Harris (R-FL), “acknowledging that she risks losing a relatively comfortable seat” to take on Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL): “It’s hard to stop and say, ‘Are you going to bet the farm to run against an incumbent?'” (Miami Herald).

MI Early Stabenow numbers look good. (Newsie: Well, that explains why no one seems to want to challenger her.)

MN MN-Sen: Wealthy Real Estate Developer Kelly Doran In, by displacedyankeedemocrat

MT St. Sen. Jon Tester (D) has his website up. Too cool that his campaign bus is a big rig. “You’re behind the right guy” I love politicians with a sense of humor. Donate: Jon Tester for US Senate. More on Jon Tester: Montana Populism: Netroots and Jon Tester, by Bob Brigham… Brian Schweitzer’s Populism and Democrats 2006 message, by Bob Brigham (includes info on the 2006 Senate race)… Early polling numbers from kos

NC Lizzy Dole warns contributors of a John Edwards challenge

ND Sen. Kent Conrad (D) may need some donations. His charts re: the deficits are reason enough to give. Kent Conrad for Senate

NY DSCC Chair Schumer on possible Hillary 06 foe and Nixon relative, Ed Cox: “I don’t want to handicap the candidates, but…as DSCC chair, if I could shake hands with the devil and say Ed Cox is the candidate against her, I’d do it right now.”… NYT Article on Hillary Clinton’s advisors… Former Yonkers Mayor John Spencer (R) wants to challenge Hillary.

OH16 Right-winger begins an attack on me, by Jeff Seeman for Ohio

PA (WakeupCall) Pres. Bush will appear at a 6/14 fundraiser in Bryn Mawr for Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA) (Philadelphia Inquirer).

RI RI-SEN: My Evening with Matt Brown, by Terry312… Chafee to get primary challenge, by MrLiberal

VT Socialist Leads US Senate Race in VT. That is the exact headline used at Yahoo… (WakeupCall) VT LG Brian Dubie (R) said he plans to attend a one-day GOP seminar for SEN candidates in DC this month (Barre-Montpelier Times Argus).

WV Republican poll has Byrd barely leading Capito. It could be the GOP putting a feeler out there to try and lure Capito into the race.

Governor
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Arkansas Current AG Mike Beebe (D) seems to have plans on running.

CO Link for the following quote: “Entrepreneur Rutt Bridges jumped into the Colorado’s gubernatorial race yesterday, marking the wealthy Democrat’s first campaign for public office. Bridges endeared himself to many party activists last year when he helped finance the party’s dramatic turn-around victories in 2004. Bridges will face Denver District Attorney Bill Ritter in a Dem primary. Bridges, a 53-year-old political neophyte, made millions developing a software program that analyzes sound reflections from the earth to identify likely oil and gas deposits.” …

FL (WakeupCall) FL AG Charlie Crist is “looking to get a boost” for his FL GOV bid from a 6/05 Manhattan fundraiser hosted by Donald Trump (AP).

NH Overview here.

IA As Rep. Jim Nussle (R-IA) plans to announce his IA GOV bid today, Dems are scheduled to launch a radio ad campaign attacking his receipt of ’04 contributions from House Maj. Leader Tom DeLay’s PAC (link)

MI (WakeupCall) The EPIC/MRA poll shows that 26% of MI voters will re-elect Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D), 29% will consider someone else and 29% will vote to replace her. Granholm has a 53% favorable rating (release)… Billionaire’s son eyes MI Governship Dick DeVos is married to former state Republican Chairwoman Betsy DeVos and is a major party donor. He retired in 2002 as president of direct sales giant Alticor Inc., the parent company of Amway Corp. His dad has an estimated worth of $3 billion.  

MN MN State Sen. Steve Kelley (D) announced his intentions to run for governor next year.

NY Spitzer gets a challenger in Nassau County Executive Thomas R. Suozzi. I like Spitzer a lot, and from that article, it doesn’t seem like Suozzi is a guy we want.  He should consider running for Congress or something else, first.

TX Some say Hutchinson will announce next week that she’ll challenge Perry for the GOP nod in TX. Some say the contested GOP primary fight will cost $50 million.  All that cash spent before the general election. Damn.

• Donate to the DNC
• Pres-2008-The Shadow Campaigns:Leadership PACs, by displacedyankeedemocrat
• (WakeupCall) Des Moines Register’s David Yepsen writes that states other than IA and NH “that were close in fall 2004 should get more attention early in 2008.”

Brownback
Brownback Courts Religious Right for 2008 He’s so out of the mainstream that he’s against stem cell research and that he was such an asshole to Arlen Specter who is currently undergoing treatment for cancer.

Edwards Edwards guest blogged at TPMCafe.com. Edwards will publish a photo essay book… Edwards keeps a busy schedule…. Edwards’ netroots outreach and its impact on his political future… Edwards was appointed to the Council Foreign Relations Task Force (see his One America Committee site)… Edwards also released his first videoblog on Friday.

Giuliani (WakeupCall) Ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) and his wife Judith “quietly” bought a condo for $410K last year in Palm Beach, FL (Palm Beach Towers)

Hagel Senator Chuck Hagel’s Presidential Aspirations May Hang on Bolton MUST read from The Washington Note.  That Hagel hasn’t started putting together a team is a major sign that he likely won’t run or that if he does, he’d start at a distinct disadvantage.  It’s also interesting to note that Hagel flirts with sane, old-school Republicanism, but bends over for the nutso majority in the Republican Party.

McCain Framing for the presidency: McCain TV extravaganza, by Nothing Without Hope

Romney (WakeupCall) MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R) “scored a red Mustang GT convertible for his birthday” (Boston Herald). (Newsie mocks: Out of touch Northeastern elitist!) … Romney flip flops on abortion, gay rights He’s been “faking it.”

Vilsack Vilsack policies keeps speculation alive

• Special election in KY State Senate district?
• KY Personnel Investigation Haunts KY Gov. Ernie Fletcher (R) He is currently being investigated by KY AG Greg Stumbo (highest ranking Democrat) began investigating this month.  Stumbo could challenge Fletcher in 2007.
• DonkeyRising: Dems Show Promising Strength in State Legislatures
• Showdown in Florida: GOP Theocrat vs. Moderate, by Frederick Clarkson
• TN St. Sen. John Ford (D) resigns
• (WakeupCall) Ex-AG John Ashcroft will headline an IA GOP fund-raiser in Davenport on 6/16 (Quad-City Times). He said of his visit: “I want to make it clear I’m not running” for president (Des Moines Register). (Newsie: Good thing, because he wouldn’t win.)