Jonathon Singer, over at MyDD notes some startling new poll numbers.
In one of my posts yesterday, I noted the whopping 30-point gender gap that the Los Angeles Times
and Bloomberg found on the generic congressional ballot question, with
women overwhelmingly preferring to see a Democratic Congress by a 58
percent to 30 margin while men narrowly prefer a GOP Congress by a 41
percent to 39 percent margin.That LA Times/Bloomberg poll was not the only poll to come out this past week showing a sizeable gender gap. The Cook Political Report
(.pdf) commissioned a poll this week from RT Strategies that showed the
Democrats holding a 10-point generic congressional ballot lead, 46
percent to 36 percent. The gender breakdown of the Cook poll shows an
11-point gender gap, with women favoring the Democrats by 15 points
while men favor the Dems by only 4.Whether women support the Democrats by a 28 percent margin or a 15
percent margin, it seems fairly clear that women’s strong preference
for the Democratic Party — which had shrunk from 12 points during the 2000 presidential election to just 3 points during the 2004 presidential contest — has returned.
I am not surprised to see a return of the gender gap. The appointments of John Roberts and Samuel Alito to the Supreme Court, combined with the recent aggressive anti-choice movements in South Dakota, Missouri, Alabama and elsewhere have put the issue of reproductive rights back in the national spotlight. The increasingly unpopular war and the bizarre ineptitude of the federal government’s response to Hurricane Katrina have also undermined the Republican’s reputation for compassion. The question I have is this: Will the Democratic strategists look at these new poll numbers and conclude that there is an opportunity to make major inroads by sticking up for women’s rights? Or will they continue to look at the measely 3% gender gap of 2004 and conclude that women’s rights confers no advantage…and perhaps confers a disadvantage?
Women are ready to vote Democratic this November. All they need is a reason to do so. The political climate has shifted. Will the consultants notice?
